Fed Chair Powell has to be very alert to slow down, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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Siegel 교수는 파월 연준이 인플레이션 대응이 늦었던 것처럼 이번에도 둔화 신호에 민감하게 반응해야 한다고 진단한다. 최근 고용·ISM·실업수당청구 등 약한 지표가 나왔고, 긴축 여건이 이미 충분해 추가 금리인상은 필요성이 낮다는 시각이다. 그는 현 시점에서 경기침체를 단정하지는 않지만 실업률 상승 등 둔화 조짐이 나타나고 있다며, 내년에 금리인하를 고려해야 할 가능성이 크고 시기도 생각보다 빨라질 수 있다고 본다. 통화 측면에서는 1970년대 같은 과도한 통화 공급은 아니라고 보며, 올해 상반기 통화량 감소 폭이 80년 만에 가장 컸고 최근 두 달 은행예금과 유동성도 다시 줄었다고 설명한다. 정치적으로는 내년 경기침체 시 민주당에 큰 타격이 될 수 있어 바이든 행정부와 연준에 성장 측면의 압력이 커질 것으로 본다. 국채 공급과 높은 금리에 따른 재정 부담은 우려 요인이지만, 향후 12개월의 핵심 변수는 부채보다 둔화 속도와 연준의 대응이라고 강조한다. 생산성 회복과 AI 등으로 중장기 성장 가능성은 긍정적으로 평가하며, 금리 하락이 부채 부담 완화에 도움이 될 것이라고 말한다.

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01. for more on the markets let's bring in Jeremy seagull professor emeritus of Finance at the time goes fast you were just on but you were not on uh you were on before we had Wednesday Thursday and Friday of last week so all the things that happened Jeremy I would say you were probably nodding and saying see uh pal has done enough um the market itself has tightened conditions to the point where no more fed action is likely necessary and that seemed to Dawn on on the bond market and even on the stock market yeah absolutely Joe and and by the way I think jpw has to be on high alert because we did get some weak data uh certainly on on on uh the ism joob was claims and certainly on Friday listen let's be frank the FED cannot screw up the way it did on inflation by waiting a year too late now I'm not saying we're going to get a recession or anything like that but he's got to be very alert to slow down and if the data continues weak he really does have to consider lowering rates next year even though inflation is going to be sticky and by the way you know for a long time I I reject the The Narrative that the FED had had oh we can't be like the 1970s the stop go policy we got to kill inflation this is totally unlike the 1970 in the 1970s Arthur Burns and the FED poured on money every single month of the year 8 to 10% in the first half of this year we had a shrinkage of money that was the greatest in 80 years and then it began recovering I felt felt better the last two months money has fallen again liquidity Has Fallen and Bank deposits have now fallen below the the level that we had after the svb crisis now again I'm just saying it's not the 1970s and I just don't want him to delay the way he did on inflation he's got to be flexible I think that's what the market liked about what you know his attitude in the Wednesday he seemed more two-sided but he really has to be truly two-sided because we do have two-sided risk right now and the downside is is looming much bigger than it certainly did uh a week ago so you weren't just kind of nodding a little last week you were like this is H all the things that you've been saying were coming home to roost in terms of whether the economy had already slowed down whether the FED should U take a light uh touch so so in your view we're still talking about uh data dependency on another hike that's you're still here you you that is not what you think all should be done yeah and you think maybe the next move is is a cut I think the next move is a cut and it might come even sooner than we think uh uh give given the data I mean you know uh I I I'm I'm not predicting a recession we got to look at that data but it's begun to turn we've got to be an alert uh you know some people are talking about we've had a half a percentage Point rise in unemployment some people have said that has signaled many recessions in the future I'm not there yet but I just don't want the stubbornness on the part of the fed the way they were on the you know the inflation side on the downside they have to be on the alert and something else this you know Joe you let off at 6: am because I was listening to you you know with the the New York Times toll can you can you imagine what it would be for the Democrats if there's a recession next year I mean it's precarious as their situation is right now I mean wow I mean it it would be disastrous um you know and a lot of people are saying oh we're gonna have a recession like that's not going to have a lot of consequences it's gonna have the worst political consequences that we've had for decades for the the the power uh you know the party in power the Inc so that mean what does that mean tremendous political pressure on on uh by the dams and Biden to say hey beat gota look at this don't forget the FED has a dual mandate um and you know he has to look at that yeah that that I wonder that will play into a problem and now you know the closer we get now it's less than a year so that that is going to be front front and center for for how the the party that's in power decides to to avoid uh that slowdown what about what was worrying people last week Jeremy and that is the uh the supply the supply is not going to go away even if the economy uh does slow a and with 33 trillion to finance at these higher rates that so couldn't that cause if people aren't going to buy you know I need to get paid to buy a 10e so yields can't come down that far for me to go out 10 years yeah uh but you know again yield going down will help that uh debt overhang um yeah and by the way we we we you know I mean I think Ed yini mentioned and something I've mentioned we do have a a really strong productivity recovery and the promise of real growth being better in the next five or 10 years with AI and other factors mitigates some of the immediate debt problem I don't think the you know the debt problem is going to be the big picture over the next 12 months I'm going to I say it's going to be whether this slowdown accelerates and how fast the FED will respond to it if it in fact it does dour all right we're going to go and we will uh good to have you on and update what you thought just about a week ago when you were on but that uh that's good A lot has happened thanks Jeremy