저자: AllinCrypto진행자 · 외국인
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레이 달리오의 인터뷰를 소개하며 금이 암호화폐보다 신뢰도 높은 대안자산이라는 입장을 전함. 진행자는 BTC ETF 자금 유입 재개, 1~3월 계절성, 2024년 흐름과의 유사성을 근거로 2025년 1분기 비트코인과 알트코인 상승을 전망. 또한 FTX EU 인수 소식과 연준 감독 담당 부의장 사임을 규제 완화 신호로 해석함.
다듬은 글
good morning afternoon or evening ladies and gentlemen all in crypto here and welcome back guys on this triumphant Tuesday for what is going to be nothing short of another jam-pack daily market update and to kick the video off we're going to be diving over to an interview that Ray doio gave now if you're not familiar who with who Ray Delio is he is probably one of the um greatest participants in markets ever one of there's many of them out there in fact he's the guy that's responsible for the chicken nugget and he did that through essentially creating uh Futures that would secure the price of grain to feed the chickens and then actually the chickens to sell to McDonald's to make the chicken nugget so that's a very kind of um interesting example but he's been a vital part of markets you know he's an amazing marketeer uh somebody that you should definitely listen to should read his book certainly the one on debt um and actually uh his principal is a great book as well certainly the first sort of uh two qus of that book or or 2third of that book are a great read and but he's actually talking about crypto now and he's someone that's very anti- dead assets and by dead assets he's talking about the bond market and we can speculate on why the bond market is dead um he talks a little bit about it and actually the Catalyst for Bitcoin and the proposition for Bitcoin and gold in this interview that we're going to be playing to start the video off then what we're going to be doing is we're going to be diving over to Eric balunis the man to follow when it comes to us ETF inflows in fact inflows more broadly but certainly when it relates to the cryptocurrency space he's been a great guy to follow um on Friday we saw a real Resurgence in regards to inflows and actually this ties in perfectly with what we're going to look at the start of the video in in relation to Ray alio because the masses are not here yet for Bitcoin guys it might seem like that we're very much in an echo chamber here in the cryptocurrency space certainly when we look at our altcoins people don't realize how tiny they are in regards to where they're actually going and that's the prospect that we want to keep you guys all on the scent of and then we've got some really interesting things to do in regards to price action I'm going to be showing you that we're setting up today in 2025 at the start of 2025 in the exact same way that we did in 2024 then we'll talk a little bit about the FDIC and what's now being revealed there in regards to the Federal Reserve FTX may be returning as an exchange um and then we'll uh proceed and continue the video so without further Ado what I want to do now guys is dive over to this interview of Ray Delia my my view on cryptos remain pretty much the same and I and I'll I'll articulate it first of all I think that and I own crypto I own some Bitcoin um the question is the amount and how attractive it is relative to Gold okay um I think that there's kind of uh the old man's gold then younger man's crypto but the important thing first of all is to represent whether one or the other and really I ideally some of both should be in the portfolio don't be so fanatical that you're just having one and not the other and do worry about the value of money and what is your alternative money that can't be printed okay so now when I look at U gold and it's and it's evolved over I mean crypto and it's evolved over time they there have been a few things first of all there's um not the Privacy element of crypto everybody can understand um exactly what it is you can tax it easily so governments can easily tax it it doesn't have the the same element of that privacy there's a saying that gold is the only asset you can that you can own that's not somebody else's liability meaning you have to depend on somebody else you can own it and so on um gold is also has always been a reserve currency in all times it's the third largest reserve currency in other words the largest is the dollar second is the Euro third is gold and fourth is the yet so it's and it's always the the currency that's being gone to right now we're seeing a lot of central banks acquire gold and that's not the same as crypto because crypto is different that way because still who controls it is it controlled behind the scenes or do you have possession of it um and so for those reasons um I you know prefer uh gold to crypto but I think the important thing is the recognition of the issue of of do you trust um the governments and I think that to trust the governments that they won't print the money to make The Debt Service easier um is not the best move so I'm um you know sort of anti debt assets like bonds and so on and I prefer the other but I I would say that should just be um um a portion of the portfolio I don't want to get carried away with that I would say that if you look at it as a diversifier I think particularly uh gold is something that if you look at how it behaves in relationship to FR uh to inflation and also um interest rates it behaves in a way that's more understandable than Bitcoin Bitcoin is more of a speculative element with this limited Supply aspect to it so but if you look at that it's an effective diversifier of the portfolio if you take most other assets um stocks bonds real estate and so on they will generally be have good times and they will do well the gold and and that is a diversifier so you actually reduce your risk by by having some in the portfolio somewhere between 10 and 15% of the portfolio yeah we have it guys an updated take from possibly um you know one of the greatest sort of Market participants and understanding of portfolios you know that's what Bridgewater have done and if you look at the percentage of um asset managers out there that have that exposure it's next to nonone if you look at the percentages of companies that hold Bitcoin it's next to none if you look at the government and their exposure that's set to increase infinitely 2025 is going to be a truly Sensational year and actually as such a fan of Ray Delia we really wanted to share that with you guys let's talk on the topic of Institutions Rel to the ETFs I would have predicted a rough patch for the BTC ETFs given the drop below 100K overdue for a breather but no they roared back with nearly 1 billion Friday $1 billion doll Friday which lifted the one week to a positive net good sign the scoring was spread around two Dream Team style also a good sign to back up my reference here's a Dream Team box score for the 1992 Olympics okay we don't need to get into that but you can see the ETFs are now starting to see inflows actually we have looked from a seasonality point of view or a monthly point of view what the first quarter of this year will bring the first three months and they're typically all positive in fact February is typically the um third best performing month when it comes to bitcoin gains Actually March I think is the 4th and April is the 5th and then we've got the whole selling May Come Back inant le today but may 10s to be um overall a net positive month so we've got those months ahead of us and actually just like what we have here on the left is bitcoin's current price action we saw a very similar thing back in 2020 uh 4 going into 2024 with those months that we just looked at this is bitcoin's current price action this is Bitcoin in 2024 obviously we've just entered 2025 I believe you're going to set up similarly we warned people about getting out the market based on some of the fear that was generated on that inverse Head and Shoulders it was a potential play but we said this is a small time pattern that really flies in the face of the broader Trend and you don't want to be short a bull market I mean just the just saying that you you can kind of understand um what it is we're getting out there so I do think bitcoin's got a great quarter ahead of it I think altcoins are really going to outperform we've made lots of content yesterday on a couple of all coins think going to do well H Bar's one to really watch at the moment not just against the dollar but against multiple cryptos it suggests it's going to gain real ground for me you guys know that you know we're very zealous on um Hira but I think we've ultimately got quite a good q1 ahead of us guys certainly this year actually I think more Broadley is going to be a good year whether we see that selling may come back in St leers's day uh like we sort of saw her um is still to be seen but we will of course keep you up to date got lots of higher price predictions that ultimately still have to be met we have Elena Tourette who's obviously a journalist at Fox Business knew the Federal Reserve board has announced the resignation of Michael bar as the vice chair of supervision bar will remain On The Board of Governors a Warren acolyte bar was widely considered to be a big part of the reasons why banks have been unable to engage with a with uh and custody crypto so this is what we're seeing is a regulatory shift towards a space the US has been a major barrier broadly for people participating in it those barriers have now been broken down I don't think people realize fundamentally what's going to take place this year it's going to be spectacular ladies and gentlemen I hope you're all on board for that ride you're literally going to have people's lives getting changed by the um Roi a lot of these alt coins are actually going to return we've been positioning for this we're ready for it on interesting news FTX we all know FTX of course the disaster that that was the enabled disaster that that was FTX EU acquired by backpack exchange an exchange founded by previous FTX Anda employees FTX EU has been acquired by backpack exchange following Regulatory and legal approval backpack EU will take responsibility for Distributing the previously core approved F Banky claims it plans to offer crypto derivatives including Perpetual Futures through a uh through the European Union so FTX I actually think is set to make a return is there a trade there with the ftt token I would actually stay away from it I'm at this stage now where you know I I believe I've got this really healthy portfolio there's no need for me to start taking on um any kind of unexpected risk so hell of a lot going on let me know your thoughts on what Ray Delio had to say I think he makes a point with gold um Bitcoin is not your freedom money the max is pushing that agenda are um they either honestly believe their own lies or um that they've just not really looked into it truly um it's like them saying that the only use for a distributed Ledger is Bitcoin and everything else is an coin simply not the case and but a lot going on we've got a great year ahead of us are we going to set up in the similar manner we already are setting up in a similar manner to what we going into 2024 I think we're going to see that sort of uh price action that we saw then with the kind of months that we had ahead of us we're going to have a great quarter lots of interesting things going on sort of internally with the US that's it from me guys I'm going to love and leave you on that note thanks for watching I'll see you all in the next one
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