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After two exciting days where we saw Tesla stock decouple from NASDAQ and from SNP and go up like a little rocket ship to now 480. It's time to look into why is this happening and listen to someone that I always appreciated as the one Wall Street analyst that actually knows what he's talking about and how his price targets for 2026 are now starting to converge towards mine which is very interesting.
So, let's take a look what the famous and well-known Dan Ies of Wetbush actually has to say about what's going to happen to Tesla. And you will be surprised what he's now saying for next year. That's why you watch my channel to know these things way before they happen. [clears throat] But Dan is coming around.
Let's take a listen to what is happening with him. Also, a chance he says that it could hit a three trillion market cap by the end of that year. For more, let's bring him in. He's here on set with me. Dan Ives is Wed Bush Global head of technology research. Welcome. Great to be here. You could have picked an easier one.
You know, maybe Nvidia. Like why Tesla to you? Is it still so clear for all the ups and downs, for the auto industry, for all of its ambitions? Everything they want to do is always delayed. Granted, the market cap, you know, is still phenomenal. Why do you think 20 why do you feel so strongly that 2026 will be a great year?
I think it's about autonomous. I mean, when it comes to physical AI, I think there's nothing better, you know, when when it comes to physical AI than Nvidia and Tesla. And I think this is going to be a golden chapter for Tesla when it comes when it comes to robo taxis, when it comes to cyber cabs, volume production, true autonomous, and of course, you look at robotics in terms of Optimus.
I mean, Kelly, that's why I think we're looking at two trillion ultimately, probably a $3 trillion market cap by late 2026, early 2027. That's why it continues to be one of our top 10. What's the E? So, you know, you think about a market cap that big. You say, "Okay, it's multiple. I don't know what exactly the earnings look like." What are you anticipating on that front?
And how do how do how does physical AI kind of feed directly into the earnings power it might have? I mean when I look out the next three four years I think earnings power is 4x 5x but because it's my view that you when you think about not just the FSD piece but in terms of true autonomous it's going to change the whole margin profile it changes the whole growth story and I think just going forward for Tesla the focus okay deliveries they matter of course they matter but in terms of next few years especially Musk now wartime CEO in terms of pay package you know as that's already cemented this is just the start and they're also going to have an ownership of XAI what's happened SpaceX I mean I think we're now talking about this next AI chapter that's happen across the MS ecosystem
we had Dan Primack on last week and and he said you know obviously asked him or he said the question to ask is why is SpaceX going public now do you think there's anything related to financial pressure on Tesla or Musk or anything like that is or is it a political why would 2026 be the year for SpaceX
I think the time's right I mean you could argue valuation right does it approach a trillion dollars it's the same reason why does you know anthropic or you know ultimately when when you look at open AI and others I mean we're hitting at a point where it's only year three of an 8 to 10 year buildout in terms of the AI revolution and for the first time in 30 years me and you've talked about this you know US is ahead of China when it comes to tech but SpaceX is in inflection point I think it's important that it goes public it's the right time and look we are in I two more years in this tech bull market and we're going to see more and more of these great private companies going public.
Won't SpaceX be, if you'll pardon the term sexier than Tesla. In other words, right now, if you are a big fan of Elon Musk and everything he's doing in the future, as described, this is the only public equity you can own for that story. Now, SpaceX could be the newer, younger thing on the block. What if investors go with that and thus remove some of the halo, right?
the the community effect around those who hold shares of Tesla and support its valuation just to have a piece of mind. Yeah, it's a great point. Look, I actually think it expands. I mean, to some extent, the ecosystem from SpaceX to Tesla and ultimately what's going to be the ownership of XAI because the reality is when you think about what's happening here.
I mean, we're talking about the next 5, 10, 15 years, Musk at the centerpiece of it. But I think it speaks to when you when it comes to Tesla, that continues to be the best play because I think autonomous is worth a trillion dollars alone. You think about Optimus in terms of true robotics and as this all plays out, I think globally, I mean, they can own 70 80% of the autonomous market, you know, over the globally over the coming years.
I know you think that full self-driving penetration could be as high as 50%. In other words, half the people who buy a Tesla pay the extra money to have that option, which would be, as you say, a gamecher for margins and for the stock. So that's part of what you're talking about is for those who own Teslas, they use this technology.
The other part is the cyber cab is what's it called? And how would you describe its position in this Visa v Whimo where Whimo also does quite well? The car is really expensive um regulatory and otherwise. What should we expect on the uh like the cyber cap front from Tesla? Well, first like FSD, you're going to go from penetration 15% to 50 and and I think could even be higher.
So from a margin perspective, that's going to be huge. Look, Whimo, Whimo is going to be a rounding error relative to what Tesla's going to do. I think not just in the US, but I think globally. Look, it speaks to just how expensive those cars are, how they could scale. And I think when you think about autonomous and in terms of the road map, I mean, we would expect probably some sort of executive order, you know, going into early next year, what I think is going to clear in terms of the federal road map.
I mean, more and more you're going to go away from the states to federal and that's going to be extremely important for Tesla in terms of where I think they could take robo taxes. Very interesting what Dan is talking about here. And I think it is very important to recognize what that actually means.
A $3 trillion market cap. You know what that means is just in very simple terms. Let's take a look at the stock and do the math what the stock price is that is implied with a $3 trillion market cap. So you see here the stock right now and we can just very quickly zoom into the actual market cap. So it's roughly 1.6 trillion.
So we talking about roughly double a little less than double this price 480. So what is that? It's round about $950. So this is what Dan Ives is actually saying here that on the upper end of his range that by end of 2026 he sees the stock potentially at $950. And you know, my price target is around 1,200 for next year, the fair value.
And I do think we have a good shot if Tesla actually deploys tens of thousands of robo taxis to exceed that very easily. But the important news here is that now Dan Ives is actually more and more converging towards my share price, my target price. And he was way off before. He was talking about 600.
they are still displaying it at 600 but 600 you know is not 3 trillion so he clearly says 3 trillion and we see this amazing convergence between the most forwardthinking Wall Street analysts which is Dan Ies and you know what I'm doing here my models how I predict the future how I generate pioneer alpha I've been far more right than Wall Street and I will continue to be far more right on Tesla but we see that smart people like their knives are coming around and if he says 950 by 2026 I think he will start agreeing with me also on the 2030 price targets that are around the 6 to7,000 range I adjusted it a little bit based on capex increased capex so that will be very interesting to see other things Stan talked about in this video very interesting he was referring to SpaceX of course and I think he didn't explain too well what SpaceX actually means.
He vaguely hinted at SpaceX actually not taking away from Tesla shares, maybe even adding to it, but he didn't explain why. And I'm working on a video that I hope to bring to you guys maybe next week, maybe the week after, where I dive deeper into the SpaceX business model, how these space-based AI factories are actually built and what exact role Tesla will play in this and what the exact revenue expectations and margin expectations can be for Tesla.
And we are talking about hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars in margin. You will see more very soon. So that is what we see here. Dan Ice really telling the story quite well except for SpaceX details. also going into the explanation why Whimo is so far behind Tesla that Tesla can roll out tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, and millions of robo taxis and cyber caps while is simply a rounding error.
That's how Dan puts it. And I think he's absolutely right about that. Whimo has simply no path to competing with Tesla. They do not have the cars. They do not have the cars that they can produce at any reasonable expense. They're roughly at $100,000 per car. Even with these new upgraded Zikur cars, they will end up being at $90,000.
I did the math on that. Also, another video coming where I disassemble a Zeer, including tariffs, including the different sensors and lighters you need on these cars. and you're getting to between 60 and $90,000 per car or 90,000 and 60 compared to 15 to 20,000 per cyber cap. That means if you deploy a million ways like that, you're $60 billion down.
Not even Google can afford that capex up front. Whereas Tesla is only $15 billion down or nothing if they just use existing cars. So this will be an unfair competition and this assumes Whimo would have the actual self-driving technology which they don't that Tesla also has a lead but even if they had that they couldn't compete and so all of that comes into consideration here by their knives who now puts that $950 price target.
He doesn't say 950 he says 3 trillion but that's the same thing. These are interchangeable things. Very interesting. I think we are more or less congruent on the next year. Dan and I a little bit more bullish. I think my model is a little bit more accurate than his, but we're getting into the right direction.
So 2026 will be very, very exciting. I can't wait for what's happening and glad you guys are following this as closely as I do. We will see what happens. you will watch you know Tesla performing here and uh Christmas is around the corner. Let's see what happens to the stock. You know my take on the stock.
I actually sold some 490 calls. So I'm betting on the stock not going beyond 490 by this Friday if you want to hear my tactical take. But I do think we have a good shot in reaching 500 or 520 by the first week of January. So let's see what happens and then we might hit a air pocket after. So it's time to get out of the leaps.
If you're a tactical trading on the LEAP side on the call option side core position stays put. No pun intended not to be confused with puts core position stands active in. I think 2026 will be a tremendous year. I think Q1 could be a little uh you know choppy but we will see. We will watch this closely and uh hope to get you some more information on the SpaceX situation. So, hope that was interesting. See you very soon.
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