저자: JosephCarlson · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 인플레이션이 실제로 나타나고 있다고 보며, 고마진·가격결정력·현금흐름이 강한 우량주(JP모건, 디즈니, 애플, 마이크로소프트)로 방어하겠다는 입장이다. [인플레이션 경고 배경] 마이클 버리는 대규모 재정부양과 높은 실업률이 결합해 인플레이션이 걸잡을 수 없이 커질 수 있다고 경고했고, 이후 SEC의 압박으로 트위터 계정을 삭제했다고 전해졌다. 미국은 코로나 위기에 약 6조 달러를 투입했고, 이후 1.9조 달러 구제법과 3조 달러 규모 추가 부양안이 제시됐다. 실업률은 약 6%로 팬데믹 이전의 거의 두 배 수준이다. [인플레이션 증거] 워런 버핏은 주말 회의에서 매우 상당한 인플레이션을 체감한다고 말했고, 주택 건설비용(특히 철강)이 매일 오른다고 언급했다. 목재 가격 상승만으로 신규 주택 비용이 3만6천 달러 늘었고, 목재 가격은 주간 단위로 사상 최고를 경신 중이다. 진행자 본인의 주택도 2017년 이후 거의 두 배인 약 60만 달러로 평가되며, 최근 3개월간 약 5만 달러 상승했다. [기업들의 가격 인상] 코카콜라는 원자재 비용 상승분을 가격에 전가하겠다고 밝혔고, P&G도 가격 인상으로 상쇄하겠다고 했다. 네슬레는 성장 기대치에 경고를 냈고, 허니웰은 인플레이션이 확실히 자리잡았다고 말했다. 킴벌리클라크, 펩시코, 보스턴비어(운송 비용), 스틸다이내믹스, 마텔 등도 투입 비용 급등을 언급했다. 두루마리 휴지를 줄여 가격을 유지하는 사례도 소개됐다. [정책 당국 입장] 재무장관 재닛 옐런은 인플레이션은 8~10년에 걸쳐 고르게 퍼지는 것이라 큰 문제가 아니며, 필요한 투자라면 감수할 만하다고 봤다. 파월 연준의장은 경제 재개 과정의 일시적 상승 압력일 뿐이라고 했고, 파월과 연준은 일시적 인플레이션이라면 금리를 올리지 않고 인내하겠다는 입장이다. [진행자의 대응 전략] 현금 보유는 인플레이션에 잠식되므로 비상자금 외에는 줄여야 한다고 주장했다. 대안으로 금과 실물 부동산을 제시했다. 주식에서는 고마진·가격결정력·높은 현금흐름 기업을 선호하며, 실제로 Dow 연초 대비 약 13%, S&P500 약 13.59% 상승 대비 ARK Innovation ETF −6%, 클라우드 ETF 부진, SPAC ETF −8.2%로 수익성 높은 대형주가 강세라고 분석했다. 최대 보유 종목은 JP모건, 이어 디즈니이며 애플과 마이크로소프트도 집중 매수 중이다. 지난 1개월 약 8천 달러 평가이익과 551달러 배당(수익률 3.47%)을 올렸다고 밝혔다. [조건·리스크] 인플레이션이 일시적인지 장기화될지에 따라 포트폴리오를 조정해야 한다고 봤다. 버리의 경고가 현실화될 경우 통제 불능 인플레이션 리스크가 있다. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 인플레이션 증거가 명확하다고 보며 장기화 가능성을 열어두고 있다. 구체적 가격 목표나 기간별 지수 방향 예측은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
two months ago i did an episode called the biggest danger facing the stock market right now it had michael bury's face on it and it was michael berry's warning about hyperinflation it's about inflation that occurs rapidly and it grows steadily and the fed can't control it now this episode got 670 000 views so far it's one of my most viewed episodes ever and i think it's very informative because we dove into michael berry's tweets he tweeted about the concerns of hyperinflation one of the biggest risks with the overall economy and the stock market now since that episode two months ago something very concerning has happened the sec did not like that michael bury was tweeting out concerns about hyperinflation and the fact that inflation could get out of control and he says that they basically bullied him off of twitter they said that if he continues to tweet out these type of things the sec is going to come after him so he actually deleted his entire twitter account he hasn't tweeted a thing since the last thing that he's tweeted about or talked about publicly was his concerns of hyperinflation and then his visit from the sec but what i'd like to do in this episode is a follow-up of that one two months ago i want to see if michael bury's concerns of hyperinflation are coming true now the foundation of the warning that michael bury gave out two months ago before being kicked off of twitter was that the us government is giving out enormous amounts of money at a time during high unemployment and that combination leads to inflation people have lots of money to spend but we're not producing enough things to spend it on from the washington post we read that the us has thrown more than six trillion at the coronavirus crisis six trillion dollars one trillion dollars is a thousand billions not a hundred billions but a thousand billions so that's 6 000 billions that's a lot of money that's an incomprehensible amount of money and this article was published in april 15th of 2020 meaning that there's been three additional stimuluses since then the most recent one was a 1.9 trillion dollar code relief bill it had 1400 per adult 300 per week in unemployment insurance expanded child tax credits to more money for businesses and other random things that was another almost two trillion dollars being given to individuals and then of course it doesn't stop there the latest proposal is another three trillion dollar stimulus for the economy this proposal would invest in infrastructure education workforce development fighting climate change in order to make the economy more productive now michael berry noted that despite the high levels of money being given out the unemployment rate is still historically very high at six percent that's almost double what it was before the pandemic so the economy has not really recovered we still have a very high unemployment rate and there's millions and millions of people out of work now despite the unemployment rate being double what it was just a year ago and millions more people being out of work all the stimulus money has allowed people to buy and this is where inflation comes in this is what michael berry was warning about warren buffett talked about inflation in a meeting just this last weekend it just won't stop uh people have money in their pocket and and they pay the higher prices and it just won't stop people have money in their pockets and they're willing to spend it on higher prices buffett goes on to talk about the effect all this money in people's pockets is having on the housing market the costs are just up up up steel costs uh you know just every day uh they're they're going up and that he says that his home builders costs are going up up up and the price of steel is going up every single day overall warren buffett notes that at least with his businesses he sees quote very substantial inflation and lots of companies raising prices and he seems to be correct in fact just the price of lumber going up has added an additional 36 thousand dollars to the cost of a new home 36 thousand dollars just for the increased price of lumber the journal reports that lumber prices are breaking new records week after week they say the frenzied climb and lumber prices is generating superlative profits for sawmill owners the best profits they've ever seen as wood prices pushed further into record territory just last week every single week the prices of wood continues to soar now we can see this effect on home prices across the country we can also see it anecdotally my home that i bought in just 2017 has almost doubled in price since then going up to a valuation of almost six hundred thousand dollars that's what similar homes in my neighborhood are selling for right now and the price is accelerating over the past three months gaining about fifty thousand dollars in price in just the past couple months now looping back again to michael bury it seems like he might have some validity to his warning seems like some of the things he shared about his concerns of rapidly rising prices are coming to fruition we see that with the housing market the price of wood is at an all-time high and it's breaking records every single week but is this exclusive to the housing market is a housing market the only place that we're seeing inflation not really in fact companies outside of the housing market are likewise rapidly increasing the prices of their products the coca-cola ceo said a couple weeks ago that the company will raise prices to offset higher commodity costs and coca-cola of course is not the only example procter gamble for instance says the commodity cost challenges we faced this year we're going to offset the portion of this impact with price increases and some of the ways that these companies increase their prices is very tricky and sometimes hard to see for instance here's an example of a a new paper towel roll that has 140 sheets and it costs the same as the previous paper towel roll that had 160 so they kept the price the same most consumers won't notice but the rolls that you're taking home have 20 less sheets that is a marginal price increase because the consumers walking home with less sheets for the same cost honeywell says and for us inflation is taking hold there is no doubt about it we knew it we see it it's real kimberly-clark says that they've been impacted by stronger than expected demand and a sharp rise in input costs that's them saying that there's inflation pepsico says in terms of 2021 there's certainly higher input inflation the cost of their goods are more expensive and they're passing that on to the consumer nestle says i'd like to caution against successive margin growth expectations based on these strong sales growth we now see broad-based inflation across our various commodities packaging materials and transportation costs everything's going up in price boston bear notes that they can't even get enough people to work they say there's a real shortage of drivers and trucks so the ratio between available trucks and loads have significantly worsened they say that this is going to affect their margins in the future steel dynamics says that even though they had a record amount of shipments their operating income was worse than the previous quarter the lowered earnings were result of metal spread compression as higher average selling values were offset by significantly higher steel input costs everything is more expensive for these companies mattel says we're not going to talk about specific pricing action or timing but we are evaluating price adjustments for recent increases in our input costs this same thing goes on for company after company the increase in input costs is causing them to raise their prices for consumers and consumers are willing to pay it so when i look at the prices of everything the prices of real estate the prices of stocks and bonds and crypto any type of physical asset as well as the prices that companies that have any type of commodity are charging their users their customers everything's going up prices are going up everywhere and it leads me to believe that michael bury might be onto something saying that we are at risk for hyperinflation but michael berry is not the only notable person with an opinion on the subject in fact this is a heavily debated subject and many people strongly disagree with michael bury's warning and janet yellen the u.s treasury secretary is one of them she does not believe that inflation is a concern she says quote it's spread out quite evenly over eight to ten years so inflation has been spread out quite nicely quite evenly she goes on to say i don't believe that inflation will be an issue so she doesn't believe it's an issue right now and she doesn't believe it's going to be in the future this is all worth it even if we have to deal with some inflation these are historic investments that we need to make our economy more productive and fair that's the goal of this the fed chair jerome powell has basically said the same thing that inflation is no big deal we don't have to worry about it we might see a little inflation in the future he says we expect that as the economy reopens and hopefully picks up we will see inflation move up through the base effects that could create some upward pressure on prices just a little upward pressure on prices it's no big deal drone pal even goes on to downplay inflation more saying that even if we have some inflation we're not going to raise interest rates he says quote there's a lot of ground to cover before we get to that even if the economy sees quote transitory increased inflation i expect that we will be patient patient meaning that even if they see high levels of inflation they're not going to increase the federal funds rate they're keeping it at zero so whether or not you agree with janet yellen and jay pal that this is no big deal the inflation's only temporary it's not going to stick around forever or whether you believe that michael bury might be right and it could go out of control either way i see clear evidence of inflation i see clear evidence that companies are rapidly increasing their prices that the costs are going up as a result of inflation and the question for me is is how do i protect my portfolio from inflation how do i protect my finances from inflation the first thing we can talk about is cash it's good to have some money on the side for an emergency fund if you lose your job or come across some big life event that you need money for but having a lot of money sitting in cash even in a so-called high-yield savings account where they offer you a 0.5 percent interest rate is going to get eaten away by inflation every single week every month every year that goes by your money's gonna be worth less and less as time goes on so sitting money in cash for long periods of time is a good guaranteed way of losing money if you want to move your money from cash you do have some options historically gold has been a good hedge against inflation there's no guarantee it will be in the future but historically speaking gold has been a good hedge physical land and real estate is another good option during inflation historically this has performed really well during times of high inflation now even inside of our stock portfolio there's some things we can do to try to offset the potential threat of inflation this is my personal portfolio called the passive income account it's on m1 finance if you want to look at the specific companies i'm invested in there's a link in the description that allows you to click around now the type of investments i'm focusing on in an inflationary environment are companies that have high margins they have pricing control and they have high amounts of cash flow i think that's really important i've been focusing on buying companies like microsoft and apple these are companies that don't have their margin squeezed away by higher commodity prices they're companies that have price control apple could increase the price of any of their products like iphones and people would continue to pay it same thing with microsoft they have good levels of price control high margins and their margins aren't going to be squeezed away by inflation in fact if we look at the overall market right now and observe what companies are doing well during a time of inflation and concerns of inflation the companies that have high amounts of cash flow and profits are the ones that seem to be doing well the dow jones is up 13 year-to-date that's a really good performance the s p 500 is up 13.59 it's made up in large part by highly profitable companies like the big tech companies then we can look at more speculative companies that have lower profits lower margins and we go into the arc innovation etf it's down six percent year-to-date during a time where the s p 500 is up 13 we can look at wisdomtree's cloud computing fund these are companies that are growing rapidly but they're not that profitable and they don't really have a lot of cash flow we can observe that the more speculative the investment the more the profits are out in the future further the company is away from cash flow the worse the performance the spac etf which is highly speculative companies are down 8.2 percent again during a time where the s p 500 is up 13 so the companies that i've been focusing on especially with my most recent buys are ones that i think will do well during long periods of inflation if that happens i think these ones will perform really well jp morgan is my biggest holding currently now not only will that company benefit if the fed has to increase interest rates it'll make them more profitable but they're already a very high cash flow business disney's the next biggest holding this is a company that's a historically very high cash flow business and now they have an additional high margin way of distributing their content through disney plus apple is a high margin business they have price control they can adjust their prices according to inflation without squeezing away their profits microsoft is in the same boat this is a company with high margins and price control these are the type of companies that i've been focusing on so i've been buying these companies very aggressively trying to move my money out of cash into these great companies that can combat inflation and it's been working out well so far if i filter by the past 30 days one month period i'm up almost eight thousand dollars and i've earned 551 dollars in dividends that's a return of 3.47 that is a really good return over the past month this money that i'm paid in dividends always gets added to my cash balance and then i redeploy it right away back into different companies that provide me even more cash flow in the future so this is the way that i'm dealing with inflation i'm buying high cash flow businesses that i believe have price control and high margins despite a high inflationary environment there's different ways that you can handle this maybe you want to buy gold maybe you want to buy physical real estate maybe you want to move some money out of cash into productive assets that have hedges against inflation how long this persists is up for debate hopefully it is a temporary thing like janet yellen and jay pal are saying but if this persists for a long time you'll want to adjust your portfolio accordingly so i'd be interested to hear the way that you guys are dealing with inflation which companies you're buying what investments you're going into this is the way that i'm currently dealing with it and we're going to see how it turns out so i hope you enjoyed this episode i'm going to have another video update later this week so if you want to see the progress of this portfolio just make sure you subscribe to the channel and you'll be able to track it week by week and see how this does against the inflation having said that i'll see you guys in the next episode
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