저자: RayDalio/발언자본인은MukulAgrawal채널 · 외국인
요약 보기
Dalio의 경고를 인용해 2026년 글로벌 위기 가능성을 설명. 미국 부채 38조달러·GDP 대비 125%+, 미국 내부 양극화, 미중 기술·통화·지정학 갈등의 세 축 제시. 인도는 청년 인구·내수·정치 안정으로 상대적 기회, 부동산·NBFC·통신 등 레버리지 높은 업종과 IT·섬유·자동차 부품은 리스크로 언급. 분산투자·금·해외펀드·소량 암호화폐를 권하며 유료 가입·거래소 링크 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, how are you all and what is your news? Look, Ray Dalio is the founder of the world 's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, and he is the person who predicted the 2000 global financial crisis, the Burble, and many geopolitical turning points, and he has again warned that brother, we are heading towards a dark time.
The date is increasing very much. Which is a warning signal in a very short time. The global storm is coming. 2026 could be the turning point. He speaks very little like this daily. When Butt speaks, the world listens. So today we will understand what their real data says. Why are you calling 2026 dangerous?
What is the danger and what is the opportunity for India? Because what is danger for others may be an opportunity for us. And how can normal people, that is, you and me, prepare ? Before starting the video, let me make one point clear here that whenever the big investors of the world say something about the global crisis, about the economic crisis, when we make that video, then you people feel that I am trying to scare you and I am saying that the market will fall tomorrow.
This is the biggest half knowledge due to which nine out of 10 people are not able to earn. First of all, whatever the big investors in the world try to say, they try to explain to you what their point of view is. Firstly, whenever any big investor of the world says something, he never says that something is going to happen tomorrow.
Rather, it tells about what may happen next and how things are going. Plus, we also add this in the video which is the last section of the video that how you should take this matter, whether you should panic or not, it is important. But people make a decision after listening half-heartedly or after listening to the headline or immediately start thinking that the market will fall tomorrow and because of this they suffer losses.
So I would request you with folded hands to never watch anyone's video. Watch it completely and understand which person is being talked about. Which person has said what? Only then will you be able to understand because watching videos of 10 people and watching half of them will only cause harm, sir.
And that is why I say that if you want to stay ahead of others and want to listen and understand what I say in normal language then you should join YouTube membership. There I just say what I think. What I am doing as a trader. I tell you what I am doing as an investor. So, if you talk simply and don't talk nonsense, then all the hassle will end.
So go for it once and you will understand it automatically. So first of all understand what he has said. So according to Dalio, the world today is moving towards a global storm due to three major forces. Now what are the three strengths? The first is the explosion of Dept. The world's debt is out of control.
Now how will you say it? So America's total debt has crossed $38 trillion. The debt to GDP ratio is 125% plus. This means that the country has taken more debt than it is earning. So they say that there is so much debt and very little time to handle it and when the debt increases a lot then what does the government do?
Prints money which is what America is doing. Interest rate manipulation begins and currency devaluation or the value of the currency keeps falling. Due to which global markets get shaken. The dollar weakens. Inflation increases. Right? And this is very major which I told to the point. But this is a big deal.
Second, internal conflict: America is falling apart from within. How will you say? So inequality is increasing in America. The gap between rich and poor is very wide. Politics has become polarized. Meaning it is under the control of only a few people. There is a danger of civil unrest increasing. Now this pattern has been seen in history that whenever the country has become weak from within, it has not been able to withstand the external storm.
Because whenever there is a gap in money between the rich and the poor, the story will be torn in some way or the other because debt has settled here. Third International Power Struggle. US vs China has taken a new form. This is not just a trade war. This has become a combination of technology war plus currency war plus geopolitical war.
Which will peak by 2026. China 's dead crisis is going on. Real estate collapse is underway. AI plus chip wars are turning the global supply chain upside down. And what will all this amount to? It will make it very difficult. So here people are just limited to the tariff war but the story is much bigger.
So now here Dalio says that every country goes through a predictable big cycle and it runs on three pillars. The first is productivity i.e. the real growth of the country. Real growth will mean innovation, education, then industry will burn and money will be made. The second is date. The Shadow Side of Growth.
There are two sides to CK, right? Now what happens here? As soon as the date comes, if the debt becomes greater than the income then there is tension. If productivity leads to a huge debt, the business will not be able to run. And if politics becomes bigger than economics, will the economy be able to run on politics?
And this is what is happening in today's world. Now let us talk about internal conflict, which means division within the country. So how does it happen ? There is inequality. So people get angry. What causes anger ? Then all kinds of things happen. Meaning, if every person starts doing politics with each other then the nation becomes weak.
And when all three of these are at peak simultaneously, a global reset begins and today all three signals are at a dangerously high level. Now tell me, can you deny even one thing whether you have said something wrong or not. So what does this mean for India now? Is it a danger or an opportunity for India?
So let us understand India's first strength. What is a good address for us? We have the power of youth. India is the youngest major nation in the world. In China, Japan and Europe, the age of people is increasing very rapidly. Aging has happened. Youth means productivity. Where is the biggest growth engine?
In India. Second is congestion driven economy. India 's growth is not dependent on exports. Our strength is home demand. We believe in congestion. This brings stability. So think, after US, China slowdown, India can move ahead. And you saw how India's GDP data came. Even after Trump imposed so many tariffs.
After that comes political stability. There is no divide like in America. Modi ji is running it. Whatever the world says, Modi ji is running his country very well. And this is a huge advantage according to the dailies. Do n't do BJP or Congress now. I am talking in terms of dailies. Now let us talk about what is the risk for India?
Day heavy sectors like real estate, NBFC, telecom what is there? Leverage is high. So if anything negative happens then there can be damage here. After that, global dependent sectors like IT sector, textile sector, auto sector. I am talking about auto components in auto. So what will happen with the US-China slowdown?
These sectors may be affected. Watch the full 360° film being shown. This is not about tomorrow , the day after tomorrow, or a month ago. It is being told what is really going on and if something really happens then how can it happen? Import heavy sectors like oil and gas, metals, chemicals. So look, if the dollar is strong then oil will be expensive.
So physical pressure will increase. Right? And here you know a sweet thing, unseen impact, the most dangerous thing is that which is not visible and there cannot be a bigger danger than that which is not visible and what is the hidden risk for India there, recession in US means IT hiring freeze, dollar strength means falling rupee, if FIIs withdraw money then correction in Nifty, global inflation means budget pressure, so what is it, there will be a boom in India but it will come after a long time.
Plus, if we take away the positivity of things carefully, then we will take away this term also carefully. We will not be worried. That means the threat that is for America is not that big a threat for us. Ok? Now do you know what interesting thing he said in this ? The country which prepares itself in advance survives.
So India should focus on innovation i.e. AI, semiconductor, quantum. I have made a video of Quantum. You must have seen it. Isn't it ? See, we are working on it. Control day means controlling the leverage of the debt. After that, we are definitely increasing domestic manufacturing. Ok? Creating strong global partnerships means we do n't have to remain dependent solely on the US.
Now that the US has imposed tariffs, our companies which used to sell goods abroad should do business within the country. That work has also started. Ok? What happens after that ? Strong government should remain in place. So those are all the things that we are preparing ourselves to fight if anything happens in the future.
So what should you do now? You should not take tension. These are all just things to look forward to. But from these things you got to learn what impact can be there on which sector. So you should keep your portfolio diversified. Buy equities, buy gold, buy international funds, and even keep a little bit of crypto.
You can trade and invest in crypto with us. The link is pinned in the description and comments in which we give you free classes. Premium adds to Telegram. Add to live trading. So the link is in the description and the pin is in the comments. You can open an account in crypto and you will get benefits.
So please they say that there is more danger to America. Not on India. If India prepares itself with some things then we can come out of these things. Butt is always a side effect that needs to be. And in America too, nothing is happening tomorrow. It's a process where things are coming in and pointing towards something bad.
But if the government becomes alert and understands things then things can be better in the future. So in this way, when someone speaks, we should listen completely. You should understand it completely. One should not panic. Let him understand where and which sore spot he touched. Where did you say the smile, he should understand and do the whole picture.
So this warning is not to scare you but to prepare you because the world is changing and power is shifting. Debt is at record high and US-China tensions are at their peak. What looks good to you from the outside and the marble market bubble may become a turning point in 2026. So if we remain alert then accidents will not happen. Right? So if you liked the video and found it true, please share it. Thank you.
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