저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 헤지펀드 운용을 중단하고 Substack에 글을 올리며 자기 자금으로 매수한 4개 종목을 소개. 룰루레몬은 최근 급락으로 저평가 상태이며 프리미엄 브랜드 충성도·중국 확장이 강점이나 경쟁 심화와 성장 둔화가 리스크. 몰리나헬스케어는 메디케이드·메디케어 관리 기업으로 안정적 현금흐름이나 정부 보험료 삭감·회원 변동 위험. 시프트4는 핀테크 매도로 저평가, 수직 통합형 결제 기업으로 성장성 있으나 경쟁·인수 리스크. 패니메이는 2008년 이후 정부 관리 중이며 규제 개혁 시 큰 상승 가능한 투기적 베팅으로 0까지 갈 수도 있음.
다듬은 글
All right. So, Michael Bur just broke his silence. The big short guy. The legend himself. The guy who made a fortune betting against the housing market in 2008. He just posted four new stock picks. Wait, he's still making pics public. That's what makes this interesting. Bur just shut down his hedge fund to outside investors and started publishing on Substack.
So, when he shares pics now, he's not managing anyone's money but his own. So, this is actually what he's buying with his own cash. Exactly. This isn't marketing. This is real skin in the game. And these picks are unexpected. Unexpected? How? You'll see. Let's go through them one by one. Trust me, the last one is going to blow your mind.
Okay, I'm hooked. Let's do it. All right, first pick, Lululemon. Wait, like yoga pants Lululemon? The exact same premium athleisure empire. That's not what I expected from Bur. Isn't he usually into financial crisis plays and deep value stuff? He is. But here's the thing. Lululemon's stock got absolutely crushed recently.
Oh, so he's buying it cheap. Exactly. Wall Street got spooked about slowing growth, increased competition, international expansion challenges. So, they sold first, asked questions later. Classic overreaction. That's Bur's bet. He loves finding quality companies that the market temporarily hates. And Lululemon's trading at a big discount to its historical valuations.
Okay, so what's the bullcase? Three big things. One, they still dominate premium athleisure. Their stores have some of the highest revenue per square foot in all of retail. Two, pricing power. People will pay $128 for yoga pants because it's Lululemon. That brand loyalty is insane. I know people like that.
They won't touch anything else. Exactly. And three, international expansion, especially China. There's still early innings there. Plus, their men's line is growing fast. Huge untapped market. Okay, but why did the stock drop in the first place? There's got to be real concerns. Competition is heating up.
Nike, Adidas, Alo Yoga, Vori, everyone wants a piece of this market now. And Lululemon's growth rate has slowed from 20 to 30% a year down to high single digits. Still growing, just not hyperrowth anymore, right? And there's execution risk in China. If they stumble there or hit geopolitical problems, that whole growth story falls apart.
So Bur's betting the market overreacted to a temporary slowdown and the brand is strong enough to work through it. Yep. Classic contrarian value. Not a moonshot, but a recovery back to fair value if they execute. Got it. All right. So, what's number two? Pick number two. Molina Healthcare. Molina Healthcare.
I've never heard of that company. Most people haven't. And that's exactly why Bur likes it. Okay. What do they do? They manage Medicaid and Medicare healthcare programs. The government pays them a set amount per person and Molina manages their care efficiently to generate margins. So they're not making drugs or running hospitals, just managing government healthcare.
Exactly. Super boring, super stable, super predictable. That sounds very Bur. He loves boring. Right. This is the opposite of sexy, but it's recessionresistant government-backed cash flows that just grind out profits quarter after quarter. What's the bullc case? Medicaid enrollment has been growing, especially post pandemic.
More people qualify, more people enroll. Molina's been winning contracts in new states, expanding their footprint, and their operational efficiency is improving. They're managing care better and keeping more of the premium revenue. So margins are expanding. Yep. And the valuation is cheap compared to the big players like United Health or Humanana.
This is a quality business that nobody's paying attention to. All right. What's the downside? Government reimbursement rates could get cut if budgets get squeezed and regulatory changes can cause membership volatility, like when states re-evaluate who qualifies for Medicaid, which means Molina loses members.
Exactly. Plus, there's execution risk. If medical costs spike unexpectedly, bad flu season, whatever, margins get crushed. Managed care is all about accurately predicting costs. So, this is not a double your money in 6 months kind of stock. Not at all. This is a slow, steady compounder. Bur's probably thinking stable business, predictable cash flows, downside protection.
Boring, but safe. I get it. Pick number three, Shift for Payments. Ticker symbol four. Okay, payments like Square or Stripe. Similar space, but Shift 4 focuses on specific verticals, restaurants, hotels, hospitality, e-commerce. They build really deep integrations into point of sales systems. So once a restaurant installs Shift 4, they're kind of locked in.
Exactly. High switching costs. They don't just process payments. They provide software for inventory, staff scheduling, customer loyalty programs. It's sticky revenue. Why is Bur interested in this one? Because Shift 4 got caught in the fintech sell-off. Every payment in software stock got hammered the past couple years, but the business fundamentals are actually strong.
They're growing fast. Margins are improving and the valuation is reasonable compared to peers. What's the bullcase? Recurring revenue from sticky customers. They're growing through acquisitions expanding internationally. The payments market is massive. Cash usage is dying. Digital payments are taking over.
And Shift 4 is taking share from legacy processors and margins get better as they scale. Yep. Payment processing has great operating leverage. Once the infrastructure is built, adding new customers is super profitable. What's the risk? Competition is brutal. Square, Stripe, PayPal, Toast, everyone's fighting for the same customers.
If competitors build better products or undercut on pricing, Shift 4's growth slows and they've grown through acquisitions, right? That's always risky. Yeah, integration risk is real. If they overpay for companies or can't deliver synergies, that's a problem. Plus, there's economic sensitivity. Their customers are restaurants and hotels.
If consumer spending drops, transaction volumes drop. So, higher risk than Molina, but higher reward potential. Exactly. Bur's probably seeing a fast growing fintech trading at a discount because it's less hyped than the big names. If they keep executing and the market rerates fintech, there's serious upside.
Interesting. Okay. What's the fourth pick? You said it was going to blow my mind. All right, last one. You ready? Yeah. Hit me. Fanny May. Wait, Fanny May? Like the Fanny May from the 2008 financial crisis? The exact same one. The company that collapsed and got taken over by the government. Yep. Still in government conservatorship since 2008.
That's insane. Why would Bur buy that? Because this is a speculative bet on regulatory reform. If the government ever releases Fanny from conservatorship and lets it operate independently, shareholders could see massive gains. And if not, this could go to zero. So this is completely binary. Totally binary.
Bur is betting that at some point, whether through Congress, the Treasury, or court decisions, Fanny gets restructured in a way that benefits shareholders. What's the bull case? If Fanny exits conservatorship and rebuilds capital, the stock could multiply several times over. There have been legal battles and policy discussions going on for over a decade.
Some investors think resolution is finally coming and the bare case is it stays in limbo forever or the government wipes out shareholders entirely in any restructuring. This is highly speculative and politically dependent. So this is like buying a lottery ticket pretty much. Bur loves these asymmetric bets.
Limited downside, massive upside if you're right. But this is absolutely not for most investors. Yeah, this is like 1% of a portfolio max if you're feeling crazy. If that. Wow. Okay, so to recap, Lululemon, the beaten down premium brand. Molina Healthcare, the boring but stable government healthcare manager.
Shift for the underappreciated fintech play. And Fanny May, the absolute wildcard lottery ticket. Yep, classic Bur. Contrarian value, overlooked sectors, asymmetric riskreward. These are not momentum trades. These are patient long-term bets. Which one would you actually put money into? Probably Molina for stability.
Shift four if I wanted growth exposure. Maybe Lululemon if I really believed in the brand. Fanny May pass. Unless you love gambling. Fair enough. All right. If this was helpful, smash that like button and subscribe for more deep dives on what legendary investors are buying.
Comments 0