저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 기업 대상 규제완화·감세(OBBBA, 법인세 21%→10~12%)로 미국 자본 투자수익률이 상승해 달러 강세 요인이라고 주장. 시장은 벽(걱정) 위에서 상승 중이며 강세장이 확산 중. ARK 투자 기간 5년, 15% 복리 목표. 애플은 AI 전략 부족 우려, 구글은 칩·클라우드·Gemini 전 스택으로 재부상, 메타는 오픈소스 전략 실패 및 인재 영입. AI 경쟁은 승자독식(winner take most), 일론 머스크 생태계(테슬라·뉴럴링크·스페이스X·보링컴퍼니) 독점 데이터가 xAI의 잠재적 우위라고 평가.
다듬은 글
You hear a lot of people saying, "Okay, American exceptionalism is dead. Uh, the dollar's demise is upon us and first half of the year, biggest decline in the dollar since 1973." That was all true. uh but we believe that the return on invested capital in the United States because of the direct deregulation and tax changes turn on invested capital in the United States is going to increase relative to that in the rest of the world.
That's dollar positive. I think many investors in the United States are very focused on the short term. Our investment time horizon is 5 years. If you don't understand something, if you don't develop conviction around something, uh then don't invest in it because you'll be a weak holder. I think that we have just begun.
Uh because as I mentioned before, we're hitting prime time. Kathy begins by addressing the paradox of today's stock market. Despite constant negative headlines, markets in the US continue to climb what she calls the wall of worry. Not only are indices resilient, but leadership is broadening beyond the so-called MAG 6 meggaap tech names.
That's a hallmark of a healthy, sustainable bull market, one that isn't just concentrated in a handful of companies, but is fueled by wider participation across secto; We're listening to the markets as well. This market, the stock market is climbing the proverbial wall of worry and it is broadening out.
In fact, that concentration towards the mag six uh is starting to broaden out. That's a very strong bull market. Now, why is this happening? Yes, the headlines blare negative news as you say, uh it seems to get a lot more attention. If you look under the covers, at least in the United States, there are some uh provocative changes taking place in terms of deregulation.
I don't think uh I don't think people understand how much deregulation is taking place in the US uh in every industry. Uh and then the the one big beautiful bill OB3 we've nicknamed it OB3. Uh underneath those covers are tax cuts that I don't think uh many people even in the United States understand because they're mostly focused on the corporate sector and they're allowing uh full expensing of structures structures uh equipment domestic R&D and uh and software in year one first year of service uh that is taking the effective tax rate in the United States from 21% where it is today.
This is effective. It'll still be there. This is corporate tax rates. This is corporate tax rates. 21% down to 10. So it's in the 10 to 12% range. Some of the lowest in the world. And so you hear a lot of people saying, "Okay, American exceptionalism is dead. uh the dollar's demise is upon us and first half of the year biggest decline in the dollar since 1973 that was all true uh but we believe that the return on invested capital in the United States because of the direct deregulation and tax changes turn on invested capital in the United States is going to increase relative to that in the rest of the world that's dollar positive that's that is dollar positive So uh I think that's why the markets are are powering forward in the US.
I think many investors in the United States are very focused on the short term and the short term means they want their profits now their dividends now their share repurchases now. Companies very focused on innovation are actually sacrificing short-term profitability in order to capitalize on these massive opportunities.
That's what we do. So if you're asking me that question, yes, I think there's too much focus on the very short term. Our investment time horizon is 5 years. And when it comes to valuation, we make the assumption that whatever uh premium to the market uh our our portfolios are valued at now that that premium to the market is going to compress towards a market multiple within 5 years.
So we are looking at valuation as a headwind for us in the next 5 years. And our analysts have to believe that the revenue growth and margin expansion in the portfolios and associated with each stock are going to be strong enough to overwhelm the valuation compression and deliver our investors a minimum hurdle rate of return of 15% at a compound annual rate.
Mhm. investors had rebalanced during the boom, the 150% increase the year before. If every time we had reached, let's say 5% of their portfolio or 7% of their portfolio, they had rebalanced to that original five balance 5%. Um, then they would have done really well even with that draw down. And we uh are are certainly going to be out there educating a little more aggressively this time than we were the last time if that happens to us again.
The way I like to characterize what did happen, boom, bust. The bust was worse than the NASDAQ selloff after the tech and telecom bubble. That should not have been because the technologies are ready and the costs are low enough. DNA sequencing costs in early 2000s, $2.7 billion to sequence one person's genome.
Today, $200. We're going to get a lot more of it. So, it makes no sense that that happened, but that just increased our conviction that we had become a deep value uh portfolio. And so the way I like to characterize boom bust if you look at from inception this is US portfolio now US because that's the only one that's been in place for that long.
Uh from from our inception to today our compound annual rate of return has been 15%. even with that bust in the middle of it. Uh so that gives you a sense and I think that we have just begun. Uh because as I mentioned before we're hitting prime time in so many of these technologies uh that I think the world is our oyster.
I don't want to be too comfortable in saying that and we do as I said the valuation is back at a premium. We assume compression. We assume it in our assumptions and our rate of return expectations are you know well north of 15%. If you don't understand something, if you don't develop conviction around something, uh then don't invest in it because you'll be a weak holder.
All we do is a technologically enabled innovation. it is. So, we're a great complement to a Warren Buffett strategy because we know what these technologies are going are going to do. Um, uh, and so I would say diversification is a very good thing. Sure. Value, growth. We'd be on the growth. We'd be a great compliment to to to those sorts of strategies.
Kathy dives deep into this accelerating race. She critiques Apple's missteps, noting that the company has struggled for years to develop a credible AI strategy. Despite its dominance in hardware and mobility, Apple missed the chance to lead in autonomous vehicles, what Kathy calls the largest AI project in the world.
By contrast, she highlights Google's surprising resurgence. Long known for its world-class AI researchers and its acquisition of DeepMind, Google has begun to flex its muscles again with investments spanning chips, cloud infrastructure, and large language models like Gemini. We are not in the top 10 of our portfolios, you will not find the MAG 6 uh for for the most part.
Uh they might earn their way if uh if they do very well in this new age. Uh and the reason is we're focused on the the purer plays. There are a lot of high expectations for this new world in the mag 6 and we're hearing already Apple a lot of controversy around its AI expertise. We have been worried about that for six to seven years because we've watched uh Apple which should have moved into the ultimate mobile device.
What is that? Robo taxis. Uh and they tried and they had one management turnover after another. uh robo taxis we believe are the largest AI project in the world and uh Apple by all rights should have been there given its focus on hardware on mobility but they couldn't get it right because it's an AI project and I don't think they were able to hire the right kind of expertise or from another point of view even now uh they have put their AI strategy under the former head of vision Pro which wasn't really a big success.
This should be coming from Tim Cook the highest levels uh and so they haven't done that yet. Apple we uh are have been concerned about their AI expertise. Um all of the others uh you know they they have been extremely successful right so they're at the top of these indices all of the broad-based indices.
uh and that means historically they've had a lot of success. Uh our focus is on truly disruptive technologically enabled innovation. And so if we're right on that, there's always the possibility that past successes which created uh duopolies almost monopolies uh are are going to create problems for them.
Now we were actually very surprised at how quickly Google is re reinventing itself. It it always had the best AI researchers in the world. It bought uh the UK's own deep mind, right? And uh and now it is starting to get with the program. were quite impressed at, you know, they're they're in the full stack of AI from chips, TPUs, uh, to, uh, the cloud, GCP, uh, to large language models, Gemini, and so we're we're and we're very interested in what they're doing.
I I have to say uh uh Amazon agentic AI is going to challenge it to some extent because this idea that we start our shopping experience at Amazon may not hold true as much in the future, but they'll probably be like the Walmart of retail in the future. Meta platforms we thought, oh my gosh, they're doing such interesting things.
this open-source uh strategy in AI and large language models was working and working and then it didn't work. It wasn't keeping up with even Grock XIS. So, we're wondering what's going on there. We think it's going to be winner take most uh and we're already seeing uh victims. Uh so this aqua hire strategy that uh especially Meta Platforms has now uh uh Mark Zuckerberg is plucking talent usually the CEOs out of companies LLM uh uh companies that are probably not going to make it.
Uh so we're already seeing uh that that uh a number of companies are giving way to the big four uh uh which would include Gemini as well. Uh so so yes we do think and the amount and if you look at what's happening as they're leapfrogging one another open AI has stayed really ahead but to watch Grock or uh XAI uh in in terms of the large language to see it shoot up ahead of open AAI in in February open AI then Leaprog but to see that happen so quickly uh even before anthropic and uh meta llama uh was very interesting.
So uh this is the big race and it is win or take most and so I guess you having multiple positions there is is a hedge as opposed to obviously conviction that all three can can win to the same extent and uh they can develop expertise in different kinds of LLMs. So anthropic was coding. Now OpenAI uh wants more of that uh market.
I I think XAI is going to be a a very interesting one to watch because this is key. What is going to be the defining factor in who wins almost anything in AI? It's proprietary data. And when you think about XAI, you think about all of Elon's companies, uh, and all of the disperate data that nobody has.
Uh, so the, uh, Tesla data, uh, Neuralink P AI is patterned after the brain. Neuralink getting a lot of information there. A SpaceX getting data that nobody else has about space. uh and even Boring Company, you know, tunneling. So, these are disperate forms of data. Everybody thinks it has to be just text and the internet.
No, no, no, no, no. There there's pattern recognition. This is all about pattern recognition. Uh so, we think that's one that's the sleeper here. Kathy sees a potential sleeper. Why? Proprietary data from Tesla's driving data to Neuralink's brain signals. From SpaceX's space telemetry to the boring company's tunneling data, Musk's ecosystem generates unique data sets nobody else has.
Since AI is fundamentally about pattern recognition, Kathy believes this trove of proprietary data could give XAI a lasting edge. Her conclusion, the AI race will likely be winner takemost. Some companies will dominate while others will fall behind. That's why Ark maintains exposure across multiple players as both a hedge and a bet on different specializations.
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