저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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레이 달리오의 투자 조언과 거시경제 비관론을 정리한 영상. 결론: 달리오는 세계경제에 비관적이며 분산투자·현금 보유 재평가를 강조하고 채권(장기채)에는 부정적이다. 거시 전망: 정부 부채 증가, 금리 상승 가능성, 미중 갈등, 정책 불확실성 등을 이유로 2024년 세계경제 전망이 비관적이라고 밝힘. 기술 혁신 가능성은 인정하나 부작용 우려. 불평등 확대와 평화·경쟁 환경의 필요성도 언급. 분산투자: 분산은 '성배'이며 위험을 최대 80%까지 낮출 수 있다고 주장. 국가·통화·자산군을 나눠 포트폴리오를 구성해야 하며 예측 의존은 한계가 있다고 경고. 현금: 과거 '현금은 쓰레기'라고 했으나 현재는 현금도 실질수익률 약 1.5%로 매력적인 자산군이라고 수정. 인플레이션 조정 시 현금은 가치가 45% 감소할 수 있다고 언급. 지역별 배분: 미국 대형주(S&P500)·유럽·중국/인도/일본/라틴아메리카 ETF 등 지역 분산을 제시. 최근 미국과 라틴아메리카 주식이 강세, 일본 증시도 회복세. 보유 종목: 브리지워터는 인튜이티브서지컬, 메타, 알파벳(구글)에 상당 비중 투자. 알파벳의 생성형 AI 대응과 메타의 AI 오픈소스·메타버스 투자를 긍정적으로 평가. 채권·리스크: 달리오 본인은 장기채에 투자하지 않겠다고 밝힘(장기채는 좋은 투자가 아니라고 판단). 환율 관련 엔/달러 거래 사례 언급. 출연자 전망: 미국 경기·글로벌 부채 문제 우려, 장기채 비관, 분산·현금 재평가 기조.
다듬은 글
what is a pinnacle of Ray Delo investing the advantages of diversification are widely recognized including lower risk due to exposure to many revenue streams Ray Delo calls diversity the Holy Grail of investing in his book principles while major events like pandemics and world Wars can occur just once in a person's lifetime or perhaps never Delio highlights the significance of researching historical economic trends that occur over extended cycle governments are using debts more and more frequently which is problematic since more tax money is needed to pay off debt which limits the amount of money available for economic growth and redistribution Rising interest rates could result from the US government's increased borrowing and overabundance of new bonds issued into the bond market which could slow down the economy China is challenging the us into in terms of the global order that exists now underscoring the existence of external geopolitical disputes R Delio continues to discover shocks in the economy after studying macroeconomics and financial markets for decades this emphasizes the intricacy of financial markets and the value of diversity while established businesses with vast resources and a strong Competitive Edge like Microsoft and Google are more likely to successfully adopt new technologies in order to improve their Market position cash generally over the very long term will mes out quite considerably to other asset classes like stocks or property earlier on October 24th 2023 in Riyad Saudi Arabia a panel discussion for the future investment initiative event Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Delio presented a pessimistic forecast for the world economy in 20124 the conversation was facilitated by Carl co-founder David Rubenstein just 2 years after earning his NBA from Harvard Business School the 74-year-old American whose net worth is estimated by Forbes to be over $15.4 billion founded the asset management group Bridgewater Associates from his New York City Apartment Delio cited a number of variables such as monetary policy political unpredictability and a volatile environment as contributing to his pessimistic view he said that it's challenging to keep an optimistic outlook for the world's economy for the upcoming year because of these factors although Delo acknowledged that remarkable technological breakthroughs may lead to amazing outcomes he cautioned that these could sometimes be Troublesome he made it clear that the monetary policies that would be put into place would a big effect on the world which added to his pessimism in addition Dalo mentioned the growing disparities in the world most likely alluding to inequality though he did not go into further detail he underlined that how people interact with one another going forward is the true problem he said that in order for the world to adapt and flourish peacekeeping and the promotion of a healthy competitive environment to free from war would be essential diio had previously discussed the status of the world economy and the value of diversification in Investment Portfolio using the the proverb he who lives by the crystal ball is destined to be ground glass Delio warned investors against depending only on Market forecasts and highlighted the limitations of forecasting rather he emphasized the significance of knowing how to properly diversify and balance a portfolio a well Diversified portfolio in Delio's opinion ought to contain a variety of Nations currencies and asset tie he cautioned against basing financial decisions only on hearsay especially from conference speakers he disclosed that Bridgewater Associates had made technology invest M up to $1 billion in order to obtain a competitive advantage in the industry in his discussion of the advantages of diversification Deo said that it may lower investment Risk by as much as 80% without compromising expected profits when making financial decisions he urged investors to take the Allure of various asset classes into account Delo now considers cash to be a somewhat appealing asset class which is a big change from his earli belief that cash is trash he clarified that investors can still make money with cash because it now yields bus a real return of roughly 1.5% cash is more appealing because it's not subject to price risk in contrast to other asset classes in a December 2021 Yahoo finance interview diio discussed his strong opinions about diversification and the significance of cash as an investment strategy despite being cited as saying cash is trash he clarified that in his opinion cash is the riskiest investment option since its purchasing power depreciates with time rather than valuing assets and returns in nominal values I recommended investors consider them in terms of inflation adjusted dollars he said that keeping cash on hand was the worst kind of investment since it would lose value by 45% owing to inflation Ray Delio the multibillionaire investor offered some simple guidance on investing the cost of gasoline is once again rising and so is inflation over the coming months the Federal Reserve hasn't ruled out raising interest rates one more time furthermore it appears that this year's good advance in the stock market has St how ought investors to proceed answering the question at The milon Institute Asia Summit in Singapore was billionaire Ray Delio in today's unstable Market the successful Hedon manager advised investors to do four things and one thing they should never do the first tip from Delio for Capital allocation for investors is to concentrate on the appropriate geographical markets however which regions are the best which parts of the planet are hot and which aren't at the moment is very obvious the 500 biggest American corporation stocks are owned by the Vanguard S&P 500 ET ETF European equities are held by the Vanguard fdsc Europe ETF these equities of businesses with headquarters in China India Japan and Latin America are the focus of four distinct ey shares ETFs investors will make the greatest overall gains in the western hemisphere in 20123 stocks in the United States and Latin America have returned significantly more than stocks in the majority of other regions of the world on the other hand this year has seen an equally spectacular recovery for Japanese stock investors shouldn't dismiss the evident momentum in the Americas and Japan even though there's no assurances these Trends will last sometimes people refer to diversification as the only free lunch in investing Delio's remarks at the Milan Institute Asia Summit stop short of that he does concur though that investors ought to create a diverse portfolio Delio concurs that it's critical for investors to keep an eye out for Market upheavals he believes that disruptive Technologies in particular can be very important for generating future returns where is Bridgewater Associates Delio's hedge fund most heavily invested its top Holdings include a number of Blue Chip stocks that you might not necessarily consider disruptive nonetheless Bridgewater holds sizable positions in intuitive surgical meta platforms and alphabet at the parent company of Google following the global success of open AI chat GPT generative AI program several investors appear to write alphabet off however the business bounced back with its own advances in artificial intelligence and is currently developing a generative AI model that is purportedly more potent than chat GPT another Pioneer in AI meta is releasing part of their technology under open- Source license the business is also making significant bets on the metaverse and virtual reality the field of robotic surgical systems was pioneered by intuitive surgical in that market the corporation is still the £800 gorilla what then should investors in Delio's opinion stay away from Bonds in response to a question concerning his own investing strategy in the current climate he said I don't want to own debt you know bonds and those kind of things in the notu distant future though wouldn't falling interest rates lead to Rising bond prices sure but Delio is viewing the world more broadly particularly when it comes to the growing problem of global debt he said I personally believe the longer term bonds are not a good investment pure Alpha uses computer models and algorithms to predict macroeconomic Trends in order to place directional bets on a range of assets including equities bonds Commodities and currencies although many contemporary macro hedge funds fit this definition Ray Delo was among the first to rely heavily on computer modeling to support his theories about how the economy operates and asset prices fluctuate the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen is one example of a trade that's all for today if you like this video please give us a thumbs up make sure to subscribe to our Channel and hit the Bell icon to receive notification also express your valuable thoughts in the comments 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