저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 'Recession Proof' 포트폴리오 전략을 소개하는 영상. 단기 국채 금리(약 5.5%)와 10년물 금리(약 3%)의 역전적 차이를 근거로 현금성 자산 선호를 설명하고, 장기채는 정부 부채 불이행·인플레 우려로 회피를 권고. 경기 가속 국면과 채권 시장의 수급 불균형 가능성을 경고. 올웨더 포트폴리오(주식 30%, 장기채 40%, 중기채 15%, 금 7.5%, 원자재 7.5%)와 1984년 이후 연평균 수익률 9.97%(자막상 '99.7%'로 인식), 2008년 최대낙폭 11.9%를 언급. 달리오는 현재 현금 약 25%, 채권 약 15%를 보유한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
how would you like to have a portfolio that can withstand any economic environment especially a recession that's what Ray Delio one of the most successful investors of all time claims to have he is the founder of Bridgewater Associates the world's largest hedge fund and the author of several best-selling books we will explore his latest portfolio strategy which is based on the concept of risk parity and diversification so stay tuned to find out how he does it Ray Danio is one of the most successful investors of all time he is the founder of Bridgewater Associates the world's largest hedge fund which manages over $150 billion in assets Delio is also known for his deep insights into the global economy and cycles that drive it in a recent interview Delio shared his views on how to create a portfolio that can withstand any economic environment especially a recession he also revealed his current asset allocation and why he prefers cash over bonds yield Dynamics Treasury and CD rates one of the key factors that Delio monitors closely is is the yield Dynamics or the relationship between interest rates and bond prices he believes that interest rates are the most important driver of asset prices as they affect the present value of future cash flows currently the yield Dynamics is showing a significant Divergence between short-term and long-term rates for example the yield on the 30-day us treasury bill is around 5.5% while the yield on the 10-year us treasury bond is around 3% this means that investors can get a higher return by holding cash equivalents such as treasury bills than by investing in long-term bonds Delio prefers to hold cash equivalence in this environment as he expects interest rates to fluctuate and possibly rise further in the future he argues that cash is a better hedge against Rising interest rates in inflation because it preserves the purchasing power and offers flexibility to buy other assets at lower prices he also cautions against buying debt instruments such as treasury bonds despite their lower prices he explains that these instruments are essentially loans to the government which may not be able to repay them in the future he predicts that the government government will either default on its debt or print more money to inflate it away which will erode the value of the debt holders Turning Point economic acceleration Dalo identified a turning point of acceleration in the economy which he defines as a point where the rate of change of growth and inflation is increasing he says that this point is usually associated with a shift in the economic cycle from a period of low growth and low inflation to a period of high growth and high inflation he warns that this acceleration is important implications for the economy in the markets as it creates pressure on the debt and monetary system he says that the acceleration is driven by several factors some of which are below the fiscal stimulus has boosted consumer spending and income but also increased the government deficit and debt the money stimulus has lowered interest rates and increased the money supply and also created asset Bubbles and inflation expectations the supply shocks have disrupted the production and distribution of goods and services leading to higher costs and shortages the demand shocks have increased the consumption and investment of goods and and services leading to higher prices and wages Dio says that these factors are creating a positive feedback loop which amplifies the acceleration and makes it harder to control he says that this Loop is similar to what happened in the 1970s when the US experienced stagflation or a combination of low growth and high inflation Supply demand imbalance bonds and market dynamics Dan explains the supply demand Dynamics in the bond market which he considers to be the most important Market in the world as it determines the cost of capital and the value of money he says that the bond market is facing a major imbalance as the supply of bonds is exceeding the demand for bonds he says that the supply of bonds is increasing because the government needs to issue more debt to finance its spending and service its existing debt he says that the demand for bonds is decreasing because investors are losing confidence in the government's ability to repay its debt and they seeking higher returns elsewhere he says that this imbalance creates a risk for the bond market as it could lead to a sell off of bonds which would push up interest rates and lower bond prices he says that the sell-off could be triggered by several factors such as the following a rise in inflation expectations would reduce the real return of bonds and make them less attractive a loss of faith in the government's fiscal and monetary policies would increase the perceived risk of holding bonds and make them less desirable a shift in investor preferences which would favor other assets such as stocks Commodities or cryptocurrencies over bonds he says that this selloff could have a negative impact on the economy and the markets as it would increase the cost of borrowing and reduce the value of money he says that this impact could be mitigated by the central bank which could intervene in the bond market by buying bonds and lowering interest rates however he says that this intervention could also have negative consequences such as the following a dilution of the money supply would reduce the purchasing power of money and increase inflation a distortion of the market signals would create moral hazard and misallocation of resources a loss of credibility in the central bank would undermine its independence and Effectiveness Delio's all weather portfolio Delio's portfolio strategy is based on the concept of risk parity which means balancing the risk across different asset classes rather than the amount of money he calls it the all weather portfolio because it's designed to perform well in all four possible scenarios Rising growth falling growth Rising inflation and falling inflation the all weather portfolio consists of the following asset allocation 30% stocks 40% long-term bonds 15% intermediate term bonds 7.5% gold and 7.5% commodities Delio explains that stocks are good for Rising growth but bad for falling growth long-term bonds are good for falling growth and falling inflation but bad for Rising inflation intermediate term bonds are less sensitive to inflation but still provide some stability gold and commodities are good for Rising inflation but bad for falling inflation by diversifying across these asset classes Dalo aims to reduce the volatility and maximize the return of his portfolio he claims that or weather portfolio has delivered an average annual return of 99.7% since 1984 with a maximum draw down of 11.9% in 2008 Delio stance on cash and bonds however Delio admits that his portfolio is not immune to the current challenges facing the global economy he warns that the world is entering a new paradigm where interest rates and inflation unlikely to rise and debt levels are unsustainable Dalo advises holding cash temporarily instead of investing in bonds he argues that cash is a better hedge against Rising interest rates and inflation because it preserves its purchasing power and offers flexibility to buy other assets at lower prices he also cautions against buying debt instruments like treasury bills despite their High returns he explains that these instruments are essentially loans to the government which may not be able to repay them in the future he predicts that the government will either default on its debt or print more money to inflate it away which will erode the value of the debt holder Delio's perspective on the economy and the markets is based of his deep understanding of the historical and cyclical patterns that drive them he's developed a comprehensive framework of principles and criteria to evaluate the attractiveness of different different Investments based on their expected returns risks and correlations Delio says that he currently holds around 25% of his portfolio in cash and only 15% in bonds he expects to deploy his cash into other assets such as stocks gold and commodities when the market conditions change Market misconceptions performance versus quality Dano also criticizes the common misconception that markets performing well are always good Investments he points out that the stock market has been boosted by the unprecedented of monetary and fiscal stimulus which has created a disconnect between the market and the real economy he warns that the stimulus is not sustainable and will eventually lead to higher taxes lower profits and lower growth he also highlights the danger of recent buyers which is a tendency to extrapolate the recent past into the future and ignore the long-term trends and Cycles Dalo advises investors to look beyond the short-term performance and focus on the quality and fundamentals of the assets they own He suggests using a framework of principles and criterias to evaluate the attractiveness of different Investments based on their expected returns risks and correlations he also recommends diversifying across different countries sectors and themes to capture the opportunities and hedge the risks in the global economy so what do you think of Ray Delio's Recession Proof portfolio do you Grievous perspective and strategy or do you have a different approach let us know in the comments below and if you enjoyed this video please give it a thumbs up share it with your friends and subscribe to our channel for more videos like this thank you so much for watching and I'll see you in the next one
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