저자: 부자오빠 · 한국인
요약 보기
TQQQ는 나스닥100 3배 레버리지로 10년 수익률 약 1760%(QLD 1176%, QQQ 415%)를 기록. 상위 10개 종목(엔비디아 등)이 약 53% 비중이며 대부분 기술주. AI 흐름이 이어져 기술주 상승 주도가 계속될 가능성이 높다고 주장. 버블 논란은 과거에도 있었지만 실적·독점적 지위가 뒷받침된다고 봄. 엔비디아는 경쟁자가 없어 과대평가되어도 상승 가능, 메모리(삼성전자·SK하이닉스·마이크론)와 파운드리(TSMC)도 사실상 독점 구조로 언급.
다듬은 글
hello. I am a rich older brother. If I had to pick the most attractive stock right now, I think I would choose TQQ. I am going to tell you now why I like TQQ so much. The first is the rate of return, even with money. Now, as you know, TQQQ is a leveraged ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 at three times the rate.
QQQ is a one-fold follower. Two times QLD. The three times is TQQ. Looking at the performance over the past 10 years, TQQ has the best return as expected. It is about 1760%. QLD is also quite good. 1176%. QQQ is a bit disappointing. 415%. Of course, a 415% increase over 10 years is a huge rise, but it is not comparable to 1,760% .
Then why has TQQ risen so much? If you look at the composition of this stock, you can get the answer to some extent . If we look at QQQ, which currently tracks the Nasdaq 100. Since it's triple leverage anyway, I'll just consider it as a single multiplier . Nvidia accounts for the highest weighting at approximately 9.6% and 6%, followed by Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Meta, Netflix, and Costco.
The combined total of these ten stocks is invested in to about 53% . Uh, if you look at the characteristics of these stocks, you can tell that most of them are tech stocks. Now, over the past 10 years, technology stocks have led the rise in U.S. stocks. And even now, tech stocks are delivering overwhelming performance, and looking at the current situation, it seems highly likely that tech stocks will continue to lead the rally in the future.
Actually, Nvidia was far outside the top 12 until just a few years ago, but it has risen tremendously with the rise of artificial intelligence. Then are the remaining stocks completely unrelated to artificial intelligence? That is not the case. Uh, other big tech companies are also designing their own AI chips.
They are applying artificial intelligence extensively to their business. For those of you who are very worried, you might be thinking, "Uh, I know AI is good, but it has risen so much, isn't there a big bubble right now ?" Uh, that makes perfect sense, but stocks are meant to ride on such worries . As far as I can remember, there have been almost no times without a bubble controversy.
I said three years ago that Nvidia was too expensive, too. They said it was too expensive five years ago as well . About seven years ago, that was a time when Nvidia had risen tremendously due to the mining boom. Now, even back then, I said that Nvidia was too expensive . But strangely enough, it keeps happening.
Uh, well, originally, the one that keeps going keeps going well. There have been many controversies regarding bubbles in the past as well . There are already a huge number of them, and they will probably continue to complain about the bubble in the future as well . It will overcome that controversy and keep rising .
Technology will continue to advance, and companies will generate enormous, massive profits. In any field, well, a tiny minority takes the majority. Well, the same goes for celebrities. A very small number of successful people take most of the appearance fees. It is a very unfortunate reality, but it is known that those who are unknown or unpopular receive only a small amount, barely enough to make a living.
Well, since it is covered so much in the media and on YouTube these days, I'm sure everyone is well aware of it . So, most of those with lower public recognition make a living through side jobs . It is such an unfortunate reality, but that is just how the world is—what can be done ? Honestly, I don't like this world either, but I personally can't change it, and I do n't think anyone else can either.
I just think that human instinct created this kind of society. This applies equally to companies. For example, Nvidia currently makes the best AI chips, right? The only alternatives are Intel or AMD, but to be blunt, they don't really stand a chance in terms of competitiveness. Because the difference in level is so significant, it is accurate to say that Nvidia is effectively running unopposed .
Actually, Nvidia is so arrogant in their business that it's annoying. Basically, if you don't like it, buy something else, or if you don't like it, buy an Intel one, or if you don't like it, use an AMD one. Even so, most people choose Nvidia. It is extremely expensive and I do not like it, but since there is no company that makes AI chips as well as Nvidia, I have no choice but to choose it reluctantly.
That is because that is the only way I can compete with other companies and make a living . Whether we want it or not, the current trend has turned into a world where a few tech stocks dominate. Even if you do n't like it, there is nothing you can do. It is undeniable that artificial intelligence is the trend, and even if you look high and low, you cannot find a company capable of rivaling Vividia.
Even if I want to buy a smartphone, my only real options are Apple or Samsung Electronics . Well, of course, there are other companies, but compared to Samsung or Apple, their influence is actually practically non-existent. What about memory semiconductors? Excluding Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron, the market dominance of the remaining companies is less than 5% .
It means these three are taking it all . What about foundries? I designed a semiconductor, and I need to find a company to manufacture it. Among semiconductor foundry companies, TSMC is the overwhelming leader, and while Samsung Electronics is chasing after it, the gap is, frankly, too wide. Actually, the A bio-chip that acts as the core brain of the Apple iPhone is entirely produced by TSMC.
Making semiconductors requires a lot of equipment, and semiconductors consist of a total of eight major processes . It requires a tremendous amount of equipment . Now, among them, there is a furnace that requires a photovoltaic factory, but in fact, with current technology, semiconductors with 7 furnaces or less cannot be manufactured without ASML's EUV furnace.
The old first-generation equipment cost about 200 million won per unit, but the current second-generation EUV conduits command 500 million won per unit. But it ca n't be helped. You have to buy it. From ASML's perspective, this is how it can be done . Oh, our second-generation EUV tube is 500 million won, which is too expensive.
Then do n't buy it. Buy something else. In the case of EUV tubes, since there is absolutely no alternative, we have no choice but to buy them no matter how expensive they are . That is why ASML is called the "Super B" and is doing very well . TQQ is based on the NASDAQ 100, and the majority of these NASDAQ companies are composed of firms that exert unrivaled influence and are virtually irreplaceable.
Whether I like it or not, I have no choice but to use that company's products or services, and no matter how expensive they sell them at, I have no choice but to buy them, even though I find them annoying. That is why it generates massive profits. That is why the stock price is bound to rise. Of course, there is a lot of hype.
However, whether that bubble will burst easily is a matter worth considering. Did that bubble rise significantly based solely on expectations without any actual performance? Uh, that's not the case. It is certainly true that it is overvalued, but it is being overvalued because it possesses that level of capability and there is no company capable of replacing it .
In that case, in another sense, this might not be a bubble after all. Just because something has risen 20 or 30 times over the past few years doesn't automatically mean there is a lot of bubble. Oh, this is bound to turn off. I don't think we can conclude that. On the contrary, companies that are 10% correct despite worsening performance might actually have a larger bubble .
Actually, there are still so many advantages of TQQ that I haven't mentioned yet, but listing them all might get boring, so I'll wrap up today's video here. If I get the chance next time, I will upload another video on a similar topic. thank you
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