Analyzing When Chamath Palihapitiya Initially Took $SOFI Public...

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결론: 영상은 Chamath의 2021년 SoFi 상장(SPAC 합병) 당시 논리를 되짚으며 그 투자 판단을 옹호하는 내용이다. 2021년 SPAC 열풍과 유동성 장세에서 높은 밸류에이션은 시대 상황의 결과였고, 당시 매수자는 그 가격을 합리적으로 봤다고 설명한다. Chamath는 SoFi 지분 15%를 매도했으나 85%를 보유 중이며, 이를 '펌프앤덤프'가 아니라 고점 인식에 따른 합리적 자금 조달로 해석한다. 장기적으로 SoFi를 매우 유망한 기업으로 평가한다. SoFi의 투자 논리는 저수수료, 투명한 대출, 원스톱 금융상품 제공이며, 은행의 사후 수수료 중심 수익모델과 대비된다. 고객 수(2021년 180만, 2022년 300만 회원)와 상품 교차판매 성과를 강조한다. 출연자 Anthony Noto(SoFi CEO)는 전 NFL CFO, 전 Twitter CFO·CEO 경력을 가진 인물로 소개되며, 영상은 경영진 신뢰를 투자 근거로 제시한다. 리스크: 영상 제작 시점(2022년 9월) 기준 주가가 당시 대비 크게 하락한 상태이며, 영상은 이를 인정하면서도 DCA와 장기 보유를 권한다. 구체적 목표가나 가격 예측 수치는 제시되지 않았다. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 SoFi의 사업 궤도가 유망하다는 긍정적 견해이나, 1~3개월 단기 방향 예측은 없다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. everybody welcome back to the channel today we're going to be going through chamath palihapatias original thesis on Sofi uh or at least what he said on CNBC the day you took a public now so if I went public through a spack merger in 2021 when spax were still hot chemov gets a lot of flack and I want to just say one thing before everyone in the comments gives him all the plaque that they think he deserves number one 2021 was an accelerated moment for stocks uh that has not been seen for a long time because the FED pumped about a bunch of liquidity in the markets there was a lot of stimulus checks and interest rates were very very low or at least lower than they are today and so just like anybody who was buying stocks or in the business of taking companies public like you were gonna try to make money when everything seemed like the sky's the limit to be able to make money a lot of people say chamoth pumps and dumps and you can have whatever opinions you want on him overall the valuations at that the at 2021 Force backs was higher than it is right now and that's because of the conditioning of the times I I think it's it's hard to get super super angry at people that you know go public at a big valuation if you felt it was a big valuation then you don't buy at the time then you wait for it to come down but if you choose to buy you'd think the valuation is reasonable and then you make the purchase so at the end of the day 2021 is over what's happened has happened if you're down in the stock market I bought some stocks at outrageously higher prices than they are right now and you kind of just have to deal with it and that's why you DCA and go for the long term because in one or two years it might suck but over the course of five seven eight ten years you should hopefully make a return if you pick solid companies so I think sofa is a very solid company regardless of what has happened with the schmoth um uh debacle of spark going public and I also don't think it was a pump and dump they sold off 15 of their shares uh at a decent price and they have 85 percent of their position they did not entirely liquidate the position they have 85 of the position got rid of 15 to fund a bunch of other products that he's working on it makes a lot of sense they kind of sold at the top because they recognized it was the top it's a smart business move and they still have 85 of the position so at the end of the day if if you get angry that someone persuaded you to buy a stock it's more so you felt the valuation was good at the time you bought that stock and you've got to live with the consequences all of us have to do that the question is what is the long-term trajectory of that company and do you feel like there's a thesis to still invest in it overall I think Sofi is incredibly exciting and it's going to be interesting to see what chamath originally said when Sophie went public so let's take a look at this so announcing here on halftime his latest special acquisition company will merge with the popular fintech firm Sofi you know that well and take that company public there's chamathie joins us now congrats welcome hey Scott how are you I'm good thank you I know you as well I know it's a big day uh for you why Sofi um have you been targeting fintech for a while how did this come together yeah you know a lot of the things that I do is try to look it back at some of the best investments we've made like Amazon and Tesla and try to find patterns and in this what I was trying to do was map those patterns into Financial Services just because we're at a point in time where it's clear that the banking infrastructure really isn't meeting the needs of U.S consumers and so what I did was just kind of systematically try to figure out what was broken in banking and then try to figure out which company was best representative of the solution that people wanted which I can basically tell you is three things people want low to no fees they want fair and transparent lending and they want a full Suite of products so that you can basically have a One-Stop Shop Low to no fees transparent lending and a a One-Stop shop that gives you a suite of financial products in one place makes a lot of sense that was kind of the initial thesis from the consumer's perspective because Sofi is a consumer-basing product and those are the three things that if you've invested in so far you believe they have the ability to deliver on when it comes to Consumers and so far basically was the top of the list when I when I looked across all the companies on those Dimensions we've obviously been following Sofi for a long time it's been a member of cnbc's disrupter 50 list so we're very familiar with it we're familiar obviously with with Anthony nodo the idea of this disruptive force chamoth in banking post-financial crisis and what people are looking for that's a big part of the success of Sofi and certainly of of your attraction to it yeah in fact you know the the way that I think about this is I call this sort of the anatomy of innovation right you look under the hood of the best companies and the best CEOs they do the following things the first thing is when you get a good product you don't sit on your heels you double down and you invest really aggressively to use technology to drive down the cost and then what you do is you deliver those savings onto consumers then you launch many more products on top of the same platform and the most important thing you have to do for people is to democratize access to a key resource that's what Amazon has done that's what sofa is doing because the problem that banks have right now is after the great financial crisis what they've done is they make money with hidden fees with exorbitant fees they have very restrictive lending practices ask anybody who's a middle-income person or a minority or a woman it's incredibly hard to get access to the money you need to fulfill your dreams and Sofi has fixed all these things which is why I think it's such an incredible business I mean so so from the pro problems perspective I think he's absolutely correct on that Banks after the great financial crisis decided that the way they're going to make money is off fees I mean I remember I paid 18 to Bank of America on something so stupid and I called them and I tried to get it off and they were just like they're fighting with me for these 18 bucks and and the reason they were fighting with me is because they need those 18 bucks like they need that fee or 35 for overdraft whatever it is because that's how they make their money and Sofi doesn't make money that way they don't have these types of hidden fees there's a lot more transparency when it comes to lending and you need money right when it comes to lending either you fundraise it from an investor or you get it from the bank and um you know when you have the ability to actually get that from one place that's offering a digitally native way to enter into social Finance right the way we consume uh the way we consume Financial transactions and engage in financial attractions as almost as a community from a social perspective that's incredibly interesting and I think that's what attracted shmoth as well so far it made it clear that it was entertaining the idea of going public through a spec how did you convince Anthony Noto that you were the right sponsor to be the one to make it all come to fruition so you know the thing that he has done which is incredible is he's basically created again as I said this One-Stop shop that gets you know your money right right a whole Suite of products and the thing is a lot of what I've done in the past and what my team has done is really help people operationally improve how they grow how they Market how they can virally expand and all of these Dynamics I think came to play because when you look under the hood at Sofi there's this incredible thing happening you have these millions of customers 1.8 million last year 3 million members this year but then they are paying for millions and millions of products and so what we saw were these Dynamics where there was this incredible upselling and cross-selling behavior and what I talked to Anthony about was you know can I help can I try to do what I've you know been able to do at Facebook what I was able to do with slack you know in fact when Anthony and I first met 10 years ago it was actually when he was at Twitter and we talked about working together there to do the same things and so that's how the relationship started and that's how we decided to come together and and do the this transaction I've always sort of wondered when you know when you have a SPAC it's the the quest is is about the what right I mean you you have a you know basically a year to go find the what what company are you going to try and merge with and take public what's not discussed so often is the who the man or woman behind the company uh who is the operator what is it about Anthony that is attractive and can you just speak in general to that idea of the importance of the person who's actually running these companies because you know not all specs are created equal they're not a guaranteed success you have to rely on the the person who's founded this company you're the investor this is an important question because Anthony Noto I believe is a rock star and not all specs are equal not all companies are equal so SPAC has a dirty connotation with it now but Anthony Noto is the guy you're betting on uh and I think it's important to understand what shama thinks of him look I think you're seeing um even through the events of the last 24 hours leadership and character really matter because you are faced with incredibly difficult decisions of policy of morality um all kinds of things here's what I can tell you just personally about Anthony um he has lived an incredibly hard life to get to where he has and I have tremendous empathy for that because I've lived a similar path and so I just have deep respect for the man that he is and the character that he has but then you know practically speaking in his career he is just completely money in the bank I mean the former CFO of the NFL the former CFO of Twitter the former CEO of Twitter an incredible Banker a great research analyst and just a wonderful human being so this is sort of a what you see is what you get kind of guy who really believes in you know advancing financial services for you know Middle America for normal folks to be able to sort of get ahead and I just think that that's a person you want to see win and then as a result the company that he's built is just really special yeah so overall uh you know it's interesting to just look back on that uh probably a year that was back in January 2021.

02. uh I have some more content coming out about Anthony nodo and understanding a little bit more about his life but CFO of the NFL CEO of Twitter now building Sofi the Acquisitions he's been able to do the sort of three-prong attempt that so far has been able to offer to Consumers it makes sense why chamoth a very seasoned business veteran I mean took Facebook from I don't know zero to 100 million users or something like like just crazy growth at Facebook then started Social Capital crazy girl with that slack I mean people call him pumping up whatever you want to do the guy knows what he's talking about when it comes to business and I think Anthony nodo trusting in Him and him trusting Anthony nodo and allowing that thing to actually happen I know the stock is sit down significantly since then but you gotta wonder how those two came together and why those two ultimately did what they had to do and I'm I mean I'm going back through the these old pieces of content to understand what the initial thesis was around Sofi from tomato I'm actually going to be doing another uh video looking at his his IPO like one pager around sofa and going deeper into that and why he picked uh Sofi from from that perspective but I think it's just nice to look at you know they went public why do they go public how do they go public and why did chamoth even want to take them public and it was a nice kind of understanding at least from a personal and professional perspective how he thinks of so far so let me know your thoughts in the comments I know everyone's gonna crap on tremoth but at the end of the day it it is what it is it got done and uh yeah thank you guys for listening and watching let me know what you think about Sofi and shama taking them public see you in the next one