저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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영상 결론: 그랜섬은 현재 자산시장이 여러 자산군에서 버블 상태이며, 과거 버블과 같은 고평가 신호가 있어 장기 투자자는 하락을 견딜 각오가 필요하다고 본다. 인덱스 투자: 인덱스는 좋은 상승장을 놓치지 않게 해주지만, 현재처럼 고평가 버블 구간에서는 과도하게 비싼 종목을 함께 사게 되는 단점이 있다고 설명. 과거 버블의 특징: 1929년, 일본, 2000년 닷컴 버블은 가격이 가파르게 오르고, 막판에 가속하며, 언론 헤드라인과 대중의 과열 행동이 동반됐다고 설명. 일본은 1989년 부동산·주식 버블 후 31년이 지나도 고점을 회복하지 못했다. 손실 회복 기간: 1929년 고점 투자자는 1955년에야, 1974년 고점은 1987년에야 원금을 회복했다고 예시. 장기 보유가 가능해야 한다는 주장. 버블의 집중성: 버블은 특정 영역에 집중되며, 2000년에는 미국 성장주가 중심이었고 가치주·소형주·리츠·물가연동채는 상대적으로 저평가였다고 언급. 현재 자산군 진단: 채권은 역사상 가장 고평가된 수준이며 금리가 역사적 저점, 미국 주식시장은 2000년에 버금가는 고평가 후보, 주택 가격은 가계소득 대비 배수가 2006년 버블 정점 수준으로 복귀. 부동산 위험: 주택 버블 붕괴 시 약 10조 달러 규모의 자산 가치 손실이 발생했다고 언급하며, 중산층 자산 손실과 사회 전반의 부 축적 둔화를 우려. 자산 수익률 저하: 자산 가격 상승으로 기대 수익률이 낮아져(예: 6%에서 3%로) 복리 부의 축적이 크게 느려졌다고 주장하며, 이는 사회적 문제라고 지적. 결론: 고평가 자산 시장에서는 시기 판단이 어렵지만 과열 신호를 주의 깊게 보고, 신중하게 투자 결정을 해야 한다는 메시지.
다듬은 글
in his insightful analysis renowned investor Jeremy grantom delves into the intricacies of market bubbles and their impact on various asset classes with a key knife for historical Trends grantom explores the Dynamics of stock markets real estate and bonds highlighting the challenges and opportunities that arise during these tumultuous times the beauty about indexing is you never miss an Amazon or an apple and the bad thing about indexing is you never miss having a lot of overpriced stocks into one of the relatively rare bubbles such as we have now so it's kind of good news bad news if you can write out the odd 50% decline totally unnecessary of course on fundamentals 30 years ago the market is mildly hysterical from time to time and it's totally unjustified by the steady stream of dividends and earnings but it happens and if you want to ride those 50% drops you know good luck it works out very well in the long long run but it can can take you 20 years to get back in the game if you get caught in 1929 it works out just fine but you don't get your money back until 1955 if you get hammered in 74 you don't get your money back until 87 and then when you've gotten it back for a month or two you give it up again and the same in 2000 by 2010 you're still losing money so you have to be willing to ride out and some people feel their lives aren't long enough to take the r 10 15 20 year wipe out so for those who feel they're brave enough and willing to try I've always thought that Sid stepping some of the pain might be a good idea Jeremy Grantham offers a balanced viewpoint on indexing acknowledging its advantages and capturing market growth but also cautioning about the risks of overpriced stocks during market bubbles he underscores the importance of enduring market downturns for long-term gains while acknowledging that some investors might find it challenging to navigate significant declines grantham's insights provide valuable guidance for investors seeking to balance the benefits and potential drawbacks of indexing in their investment strategy I think they're perfectly straightforward they're intellectually easy and psychologically disastrously difficult they're easy because in most cases they're so extreme it's like how do you notice the Himalayas when you're standing in Northern India I mean they come out of the plane and they soar up you can't miss these things 1928 29 was just such a massive rally so the sheer price rise you can't miss secondly just to make it easier the great bubbles have always tended to rise faster and faster towards the end and that's a kind of defining feature also and then thirdly they have all been accompanied by Massive public obvious crazy behavior where the headlines migrate from the financial page to the front page where they migrate to the opening few sentences of the evening news on the radio or the television and they talk about Market New highs and they talk about what the Bitcoins of the era have done I know it's not a St but it's a speculative instrument and the GameStops of the world and back in 2000 most of you will be old enough to remember the pet.com and the utter craziness of that period and the same was true of 1929 the same was true of Japan we had a group from Solomon Brothers a leading American brokerage House of the era who came around in 8889 when Japan was moving to 60 times Innings and explaining that their yields Etc and their interest rates Etc they really should have been selling at a 100 times and they were cheap and you should buy them and it didn't start the Japanese Market breaking the following year it has not recovered the high of 31 years ago yet Jeremy Grantham audely describes the dichotomy of market bubbles evident in their extreme nature yet challenging to recognize due to psychological factors his historical examples emphasize the recurring patterns of irrational behavior and sensationalism during such episodes grantham's insights offer a cleare eye perspective on the Dynamics of market bubbles underlining their potential risks and behavioral challenges for investors so um that was pretty painful taught us in a sense a powerful lesson about how human behavior works but it also explained to us why the big firms couldn't play that game it is simply not a commercial proposition to get out of a bull market because every now and then they run further and faster than you expected Japan went on and on and on Way Beyond people's expectations 2000 beat the record there's a lot of difference between 35 times earnings and 21 the previous record so sometimes they break out to an astonishing degree now the bad news is that changes nothing they go back even more and longer and they go back where they came from and the higher they go the harder and longer they fall but it changes everything when you're there when you're having a bubble it's really advisable to have the bubble being in one focused area in 2000 for example it was us growth stocks it was not Global and real estate was really cheap as in cheaper than the cost of building the building you could buy real estate for the bonds were really cheap and inflation protected bonds had just come out and they yielded 4.2% 4.3% I mean can you believe it real return guaranteed against inflation Jeremy Gram's observations reveal the complexities of market bubbles and the challenges they pose for both individual and institutional investors his insights underscore the difficulty of timing exits during bullish periods and the concentrated nature of bubbles within specific sectors grantham's analysis provides a clear caution against overextension emphasizing the need for a focused approach to investment decisions within the context of market bubbles in the market the value stocks were not too bad and the small stocks were not too bad and small value was actually cheap cheap enough that when the S&P had gone down 50% it hadn't gone down at all it was I think plus three I mean amazing and the REITs all of the real estate they were up 30% as the S&P hit minus 50 that was a bubble that was Paradise for an acid allocator because there were so many Alternatives what you want to avoid is what Japan did in ' 89 Japan had the biggest bubble in history I believe bigger than the south sea bubble and that was in Landon real estate and the old Story the land under the empress was worth more than the whole state of California we spent two days actually asking and digging and it was it literally was first of all it's a big palace with great palace grounds and secondly downtown Tokyo all around it was selling for you know four or five six times downtown Manhattan and the numbers worked out just amazing simultaneously they had the biggest Equity bubble of any important Market there are some flaky tiny markets that don't count but of any major Market that's the biggest bubble of all time at the time we were told it had gone to 65 times ends there's always historical revisionism in the data so you have to be a little careful but at the time it was clear everybody agreed 65 times ends which is pretty remarkable and it had never sold at over 25 times before so that's the thing that makes every value manager wake up sweating in the middle of the night is Japanese docks anyway they managed to do both of these at the same time and 31 years later the land is not back real estate's not back and S A not back to where they were this was a loss of perceived wealth so profound that you have to congratulate the Japanese for not going into a depression and people talk about the last decade but that was the last decade where they actually inched forward they actually did not go even backwards for the decade when you're taking that kind of loss of wealth you're in trouble now in the so-called great financial crash which irritates me as a title because I think it was a housing bust the housing market had this perfect three sigma one in 100e outlier bubble had been very very stable historically so to get to that level it only had to go up only he says about 40% or so in two to three years which it did and then it gave it all back but the trouble with 2007 housing bubble is it took the stock market with it the stock market was not sensationally overpriced but it was a big overpriced bull market it was not in itself a bubble the housing market was a bubble a beautiful magnificent bubble and if you look at it it's perfectly round it goes up for three years it goes down for three years exactly the same speed and it goes all the way back where it came from and the housing bubble inflicted about $10 trillion of loss of perceived value so one minute you thought your house was worth 400,000 3 years later you were told it was worth 550,000 3 years later you were told it was 400,000 and two years after that 350,000 so you had lost an enormous asset and housing markets are much more dangerous because more people own them the middle class in particular that owns very little stock owns a lot of Housing and it really when you lose that value you skip the trip to Portugal and you realize you can't send your second son to private school and it really flows through the system don't do it so what do we have this time we have of the four major asset classes on the planet we have three and a half in Bubble Land we have Jim Grant would say the most overpriced bond market and the lowest rates in the history of man that go back 4,000 years there is never a time when so much had a negative return where you pay the government to take your money so that's number one number two we're a contender for the highest priced us Equity Market in history I would say a majority of bubble experts think this is now slightly higher than 2,000 which was epic and some people do not but at least we can all agree it's a contender and then we have real estate and real estate was kind of offscreen until a few minutes ago and suddenly on some of the databases it has risen 20% in the last 12 months as Shilla series a little more conservative lags quite a bit I think it's only up 13 but the other series perfectly seriously done up 20 is the sharpest rise sharper than the 70s with inflation and sharper than the housing bubble of 2005 and what that means is metric Wei hero worship is multiple of family income how much does the media house the one in the middle how many multiples of the median family income is it's a nice stable Fair metric it used to be in America that we'd sell at three times family income and in the bubble we kind of went to four and a half or so and then back and we are now at the multiple of family income that we were in ' 06 the very peak of the housing bubble we're back now the rates are very low so all being well you can quote afford it what you can't afford to do if if you're a beginner is buy it in the first place how painful for most people high asset prices are they're kind of fun when you own them they're great for retirees who have nothing to do but liquidate their pile of assets but for people who don't have it and for society in general it's a disaster because what has happened over the last 25 years is that the yield on assets has dropped as the price Rose and at 6% you can reinvest and double your money in 12 years and at three it takes 2 four years so in 48 years you have a quarter of the wealth ignoring taxes for a second a quarter of the wealth that you would have had in the world on average of the 20th century this is terrible and the same with a house you're getting half the house that you used to get for your income it's a disaster for people who don't have assets and the whole society is compounding as wealth much more slowly it's such a simple arithmetic point but nobody seems to get it it is slowing our wealth creation down and giving us the illusion that we're all getting rich and of course if you have a house you know that the house hasn't changed house was the same house at 300,000 as it was at 450 and back to 300 house it's the same darned house it doesn't hold off the rain any better in a housing bubble like today it's the same with Stocks by the way they're the same old stocks only in stocks you get the fantasy of pretending that somehow their earnings have gone stratospheric and you can expand the storytelling to fit the available price and that's why bubbles in the stock market are so dangerous Jeremy grantham's astute observations emphasize the delicate balance between Market exuberance and rational caution his examination of past Bubbles and the current state of financial markets serves as a reminder of The Importance of Being attuned to Market Behavior anticipating shifts and making informed investment decisions to navigate the complex landscape of investment
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