Are We Seeing Investor Euphoria? If So, What’s Next for Markets? Ken Fisher Answers

요약 보기

결론: 영상은 시장이 과열(유포리아) 단계에 들어섰다고 진단하지만, 과열은 보통 한참 더 지속되므로 과열 자체를 즉시 하락 신호로 보기는 어렵다는 입장이다. 유포리아의 정의: 일반적으로는 정당화하기 어려운 낙관을 '이번엔 다르다'는 논리로 정당화하며 장기간 좋은 일만 있을 것이라고 믿는 상태다. 과열의 전형적 징후: 저품질 IPO가 대량으로 쏟아지고, 순수 투기적 기업들이 상장한다. 대기업이 주식을 발행해 다른 기업을 인수하면서 주식 희석이 일어나는데, 이는 경영진이 매우 낙관적이라는 신호로 해석된다. 매도자가 항상 매수자보다 더 많이 안다는 원칙을 강조한다. 이익 예측의 문제: 사람들이 2~3년 뒤 기업 이익을 근거로 주식을 사는데, 2~3년 뒤 주당순이익을 예측하는 것은 사실상 불가능하므로 이는 매우 투기적이고 대부분 어리석은 행동이다. 그러나 유포리아 국면에서는 이것이 어리석게 여겨지지 않는다. 현재 근거로 든 낙관론: 코로나 봉쇄 이후 경제 재개방에 따른 실적 회복, 1.9조 달러 규모 코로나 구제법의 정부 지출, 이후 예상되는 인프라 법안이 수년간 성장을 이끌 것이라는 기대가 언급된다. 정부 정책에 기반한 수년 뒤 성장 기대는 유포리아 초입에 자주 등장하는 전형이라고 경고한다. 과거 사례: 1990년대 말~2000년 인터넷 버블 당시 '인터넷이라서 다 괜찮다(it's the internet stupid)'는 식의 정당화가 모든 것을 떠받쳤던 사례를 든다. 핵심 기준: 무엇이 정말 달라졌는지 근거 없이 '대단한 미래가 올 것이니 규칙을 깨도 된다'는 논리가 유포리아의 본질이라고 정리한다. 출연자 전망: 명시적인 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 제시하지 않았다. 과열 국면의 특징을 설명하는 데 집중한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. There's been a lot of ink spilled lately on the notion that markets are getting euphoric, maybe are euphoric. Isn't that scary? Isn't that a sign of the end, forgetting about the fact that usually once you hit euphoria, it runs on for a fairly long period of time before you hit the end. Um, a lot of people haven't been through multiple cycles of euphoria and don't really know what euphoria is like.

02. So, I'm going to speak a little bit to that. What is it that euphoria looks like? The fact is that euphoria is world where you just define things under "it's going to be really good for a really long time" basis that otherwise wouldn't be justifiable and that we're in a different world and it's because of this or that.

03. And that changes everything. So with that usually comes abundant, initial public offerings, IPO, and not just abundant ones, but abundant, very low quality ones of businesses that are purely speculative. Also big companies buying other companies funded purely by equity, which then creates equity dilution to the creation of new shares to pay for the bid up.

04. This is a sign that those managements are really optimistic. Remember the seller always knows more about the thing than the buyer does always, maybe not, almost always. The reality of euphoria is that it includes people buying stocks commonly on projections of earnings two and three years out. Now, no one's really able to project earnings per share two and three years out.

05. So the notion that you're buying stock based on that in and of itself, highly speculative and considered foolish most of the time. But in a euphoric world, it isn't considered foolish. The euphoric world has this part that believes it's different now because of this feature or that feature. Currently, you know, there's a lot of people that believe that because of what happened that we all know about happened tied to COVID and the lockdowns and shut down the economy.

06. And as the ramp up in that return of opening up the economy has allowed for companies to make full or partial return to the way they were before that the ones that haven't been able to fully return to the way they were before will benefit from the government spending, of the COVID relief bill. Now the $1.9 trillion bill it's been much publicized, and that, that will lead to earnings growth that will go on likely followed by an admin, the administration offering an infrastructure bill that will provide more growth.

07. And these kinds of things, particularly ones predicated on government action that will generate growth several years out are exactly the kind of thing that pop up as you begin to get into euphoria. When you get fully into euphoria, you get even crazier ones. And that, for example, that people who remember it from 21, 22 years ago, recall with the internet boom and bust of the late nineties into 2000, 2001, as people justifying everything because, and the saying at the time was it's the internet stupid.

08. So the reality is these kinds of things that look to it'll be great because it's going to be great, without a justification for what makes it truly different than normal times and why you can break all the rules because of this greatness that we will now have for a really long time, maybe forever. That's what euphoria looks like.