저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 향후 경기침체가 본인 생애 최악일 것이며 주식시장은 장기 약세를 겪을 것으로 보지만, 현재 실제 매도는 시작하지 않았다고 말한다. 경기침체 전망: 2008년은 과도한 부채 문제였고 2009년 이후 전 세계 부채가 급증해 다음 위기가 더 나쁠 것이라고 주장한다. 현재 비관론이 매우 강하며, 우크라이나 평화가 찾아오면 비관론이 사라지고 주가가 오를 수 있다고 본다. 마지막으로 한 차례 랠리가 나온 뒤 본격 하락이 올 수 있다고 말한다. 시장 전략: 주식이 항상 오르는 것은 아니며 장기 약세장이 여러 번 있었다고 강조한다. 현재 일부 숏 포지션은 보유 중이지만 아직 매도는 시작하지 않았다. 원자재: 은은 보유 중이나 금과 은은 추가 매수하지 않고 대기 중이다. 은은 고점 대비 약 70% 하락, 금은 약 15% 하락 상태라고 언급했다. 실제로 매수한다면 지금은 은을 사겠다고 했다. 농산물은 오랫동안 침체되어 관심 대상이며, 진정한 절망이 보일 때 금과 은을 더 살 생각이라고 말한다. 항공·여행: 코로나로 타격을 입은 항공·여행·관광 산업은 현재 매수하지 않지만 하락할수록 관심이 커진다고 한다. 여행 수요 회복과 좌석·조종사 부족으로 항공주에 기회가 있을 것으로 보며, 국제 항공사에 큰 기회가 있을 것이라 전망한다. 달러·통화: 미국 달러는 심각한 결함이 있는 통화이지만 위기 시 안전자산으로 보유 중이다. 달러가 과대평가되어 버블이 될 수 있으며, 그때 매도할 계획이다. 매도 후 자금은 중국 위안화가 이론상 유력하나 자본통제로 투자가 어렵다고 본다. 시기·섹터: 올해 미국 증시는 역사적으로 손꼽히게 나쁜 시기였으나 더 크게 하락할 것으로 보며, 일부 기업은 60~80% 하락하고 미국 기업도 파산할 수 있다고 주장한다. 과잉 레버리지 기업과 은행 등이 취약할 수 있으나 농산물·은 등 실물자산은 약세장에서 강할 수 있다고 본다. 인도: 가끔 인도 주식을 매수해 왔고 현재는 보유가 없다. 인도 시장이 다른 시장보다 더 크게 하락하면 인도 주식에 관심이 크며, 시장이 극도로 나빠지면 똑똑한 인도 기업을 찾겠다고 말한다. 리스크: 시장 타이밍에 서툴고 최악의 타이밍 판단자라고 스스로 인정하며, 하락이 더 진행될 때까지 기다리겠다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
we're chatting last year around this time Jim I remember because at that time everyone was busy buying gold as they will be this week because it's very auspicious it's Festival season here in India and when we were speaking last year you had warned that after the third time the FED would hike rates the world would go into a deep recession and I've been waiting a year to ask you what is preventing the world from slipping into that recession because markets seem to be bouncing right back up each and every time well that's very strange Marcus but most where I am are going down I wish I were there I should be with you ABBA uh American markets down job and every China I thought everybody was down uh so is this then is this only going to get worse from here on do you feel this is the beginning of an impending recession the worst ever like it's been predicted by some well before this is over yes it's going to be the worst in my lifetime in 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt uh but since 2009 the debt everywhere everywhere has skyrocketed so the next problem has to be the worst in my lifetime because the debt has gotten so so so much worse but having said that there's a huge amount of pessimism around right now and normally when there's a lot of pessimism something happens and people get happy for a short time I don't know this is not a prediction but if there were peace in Ukraine oh my gosh the pessimism would disappear and stocks would go up so something is probably going to happen we're probably going to have one last rally but that will be it out that then we're coming to the end of the line be worried watch business today so no this is this is why I wanted to talk to you Jim because I think that for a long a lot of investors that are coming off a really good run any glimmer of hope is an opportunity to buy right because all this while they've been thinking that markets in the long term are going to continue to go up etc etc so now does one look for an exit at this time well I have not started selling I have a few shorts but I have not started selling shorts yet but yes many people especially after a decline like this look for a reason to be optimistic let me remind you of us there have been many times in history when stocks have done nothing for a long period of time or even decline for a long period of time stocks don't always have to go up write it down stocks do not have to go up all the time we have had many long bear markets and we will we're going to have another one now soon um Jim what are you still Along on then let's start let's talk Commodities uh let's start with your favorite of course silver or gold where are you at with some of those Investments or trades I own some silver I mean I own silver last time I saw you I wasn't buying it I'm not buying it still and gold I'm not buying gold or silver of not selling I'm waiting somewhere along the line I I hope I'm smart enough to buy more gold more silver I want to buy more agriculture agriculture has been very depressed for a long time uh these are places that I'm looking things that have been hurt by the epidemic Transportation tourism travel I'm not buying now anywhere but I'm watching them go down and the more they go down the more interesting they get to me Papa I know I know we're not going to take a boat to New York we're going to fly to New York again someday and Airlines will be attractive again someday and I know when we get to New York we're not going to sleep in the park we're going to sleep in hotels so some of these areas that are being very badly heard by the epidemic usually lead to opportunities it's interesting you mentioned that because we're seeing a f as you know go crazy uh you know this season you know prices have skyrocketed uh worldwide International Affairs domestic fairs here in India and we're actually seeing the launch of new Airlines here in India as well despite it being such a cost intensive industry so clearly There's Something Brewing there you do you feel this is this is some kind of uh you know Revenge consumerism or a recovery for the last two years or is this the beginning of an altogether new trend when it comes to the travel and tourism sector well you know it's both it's both it's certainly the recovery you know things are so bad and suddenly people want to travel and they're not many seats not many employees not many Pilots so yes that's part of what's going on now but it will lead to a basic change in the airline industry because people have not been buying a lot of planes in the last few years because of the epidemic for other reasons but then exacerbated by the by the epidemic so what who knows but I expect to find great opportunities in International Airlines before this is over okay um on gold and silver on precious metals uh Jim what's the kind of price Target you're looking at or the kind of upside Apple please watch BT I mean you guys know I am terrible at Market Tommy I'm the worst Market timer in the world I usually try to let the market tell me if and when I see silver really collapsing more than it is now or gold I hope I'm smart enough to buy more gold and silver if I were buying today I would buy silver so it was down much more so it was down 70 percent from its all-time high gold is down 15 from its all-time high those are rough numbers but no I would be buying silver today if I were buying either but I'm not buying either yet I'm waiting to see a time when there's real Despair and then I hope I'm smart enough to buy more of both so what happens to you know currencies at a time like this uh what's your view on the dollar uh we're seeing this a tremendous ShakeOut and the impact it's having across currency especially here in Emerging Markets well I own a lot of US dollars I told you last time the reason I I mean the US dollars are terribly flawed currency America is the largest generation in the history of the world it's getting worse every day so now you're going to say like a good report you're going to say why do you own dollars in what's wrong with you uh I own them because when people when there's turmoil people look for a safe haven people think the US dollar is a safe haven for historic reasons the US dollar is going to get overpriced it could turn into a bubble too I hope I'm smart enough that when that happens to to sell my US Dollars and your next question should be well what are you going to do with the money bin and I don't know yet I wish I did I will watch I will watch Apple eating some more to find out what to do with it I don't know you know theoretically it would you would it would be the Chinese currency because it's so big but the Chinese currency is a blocked currency I can't just go online and buy and sell it like at the end of the Yen or the Euro or something so I don't know where I'm going to put my money okay and in terms of timeline so we're looking at I you know you've been speaking about it when you are saying the worst Baron are we looking at the end of the year is it it's really around the corner or would you give it six months well this year so far has been one of the worst uh the first eight ten months of any American of any year in the American Stock Market has been historically it's been significant that it how bad it has been uh but as I say before it's over I expected to get much much much worse I want to see some companies go down 60 70 80 percent some companies will go bankrupt I'm talking about U.S companies will go bankrupt no this fair market is going to be a mess you're not old enough to remember bear markets and how bad they can be they can be really really devastating and surprising wow so in this ShakeOut is it going to be across the board gym or do you see certain Pockets that'll be worse hit tech stocks um you know over leveraged companies girly uh Banks we've been seeing all kinds of uh reports you know at some key institutions where's the ShakeOut going to be no there will be some probably real assets whether agriculture or silver or some some things will do well they always do in Bear markets a few are always a few sectors that do very well I don't know what they are yet I'm certainly optimistic and watching Agriculture and Mission Airlines if they get damaged or the stocks yet hurt more and more you know the Opera one good thing about all this it's good for you because it gives you job security you know you have somebody has to report on all this somebody has to tell us what's going on so it's very good for you and BT it's not good for the rest office but it's good for human Beijing well I I do look at India I do occasionally periodically buy Indian shares I don't have any now uh because the market was one of the better markets in the last year or two uh but if India goes down lot or it goes down more than others I'm certainly interested in Indian shares they're all there's some really really smart Indians as you know uh very smart Indians you just have to find them some of them moved away but they're smart Indians in India and I will be looking for smart Indians and good companies when things get really bad if you like the video do like comment share and subscribe
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