Charlie Munger on Inflation Risks and How to Invest Wisely | Daily Journal 2022 【YAPSS Highlight】

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Munger는 대규모 화폐 발행(일본·미국·유럽)이 전례 없는 영역이며 결과를 아무도 확신할 수 없다고 봄. 일본은 25년 정체에도 사회가 안정적이었다고 평가. 볼커식 고금리 긴축은 고통스러웠지만 현 정치권이 그만큼 강하게 긴축하기 어려워 향후 문제는 더 나쁠 수 있다고 경고. 남미식 포퓰리즘·데마고그 위험 언급. 개인 투자자에게는 분산투자 과잉보다 소수의 좋은 자산 집중을 권고하며 버크셔, CCO 등 몇 개 자산 보유를 예시로 듦.

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01. do you think it's likely that we will experience a major increase in interest rates in the upcoming decades like for example in the period between 1950 and 1980 well that of course is a very intelligent question and a very difficult question when you print money on the scale that modern nations are printing it Japan the United States Europe Etc we're getting into new territory in terms of size the Japanese bought back not only a lot of their own debt but a lot of their Common Stocks you can't imagine how much money printing Japan has done they haven't had all that much inflation and they it's still a very admirable civilization in fact you you could argue that Japan is one of the more admirable civilizations in the whole world and in spite of all this very extreme government money printing they've done and they haven't had terrible consequences now they've had 25 years of stasis with living standards not improving very much I don't think that came from their macroeconomic policies I think that came from the rise of tough competition for their export Powerhouse from China and Korea but at any rate it's weird what's happening and nobody knows for sure how it's going to work out I think it's encouraging that Japan could print as much money as it has and remain as civilized and calm and admirable as it has and so I hope to God the United States is similar happy outcome but I think the Japanese are better adapted for stasis than we are I think it's a duty filled civilized bunch of people a lot of them older not many young people and they just suck it in and COPE in our country we have terrible tensions it's way harder to run a country which is not monoth like Japan there's some professor at Harvard that has written extensively on this subject it's way harder to run a nation like the United States with different ethnicities and groups and so forth than it is to run Japan Japan is basically sort of a mono ethnic civilization which is proud of its ethnicity and of course they can cope with the troubles more than better than some other people can but we don't know where we're going there's we there's never been anything quite like what we're doing now and we do know from what's happened in other nations if you trans print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble and we are closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past but it may still be a long way off I certainly hope so me too um Steve Cosell writes in on on this same subject he he says what are your current thoughts on the inflationary environment and please compare and contrast it to the 1970s well when vulker after the 70s took the prime rate to 20% and the government was paying 15% on its government bonds that was a horrible recession lasted a long time caus a lot of a Agony and I certainly hope we're never we're not going there again I think the conditions that allowed vuler to do that without interference from the PO politicians were very unusual and I think it in 2020 hindsight it was a good thing that he did it I would not predict that our modern politicians will be as willing to permit a new vulker to get that tough with the economy and bring on that kind of a recession so I think the new troubles are likely to be different from the old troubles you may wish you had you had a vulker style recession instead of what you're going to get the troubles that come to us could be worse than what vulker was dealing with and harder to fix like what have you well think of all the think of all the Latin American countries that print too much money they get strong men and so forth that's what Plato said happened in early Greek citystate democracies one person one vote a lot of eality and you get demagogues and the demagogues lather of the population and PR when you don't have your democracy anymore I don't think that was a crazy idea on Plato's part I think that accurately described what happened in Greece way back then and and it's happened again and again again in Latin America we don't want to go there at least I don't me neither NE um yeah Charlie I'm gonna ask a couple more of these inflation questions from Simon Jacobs who says conventional economic theory argues that excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus over the last two years has triggered the highest inflation in 40 years do you broadly agree with this thesis and more importantly do you think there will be a high economic price to pay as the FED attempts to bring inflation back under control I guess um the reasons for it um well first part I agree with it we've done something we've done something pretty extreme and we don't know how bad the troubles will be whether we're going to be like Japan or or something a lot worse and what makes life interesting is we don't know how it's going to work out I think we do know we're flirting with serious trouble I think we also know that some of our earlier fears were were overblown Japan is still existing as a civilized na in spite of unbelievable excess by all former standards in terms of money printing think of how seductive it is you have a bunch of interest bearing debts and you pay them off with checking accounts which you're no longer paying interest think of how seductive that is for a bunch of legislators you get rid of the interest payments and you just the money supply goes up it seems like heaven and of course when things get that seductive they're likely to be overused Steven tedar from Atlanta writes in um he had similar concerns about inflation but he takes it a step further he says how will this all play out and what's the best advice you have for individual investors to optimally deal with the negative impact of inflation other than owning quality equities well it may be that you have to choose the least bad of your a bunch of options that frequently happens in human decision making the mongers have Berkshire stock CCO stock Chinese stock suu a little bit of Daily Journal stock and a bunch of apartment houses do I think that's perfect no do I think it's okay yes I think the great lesson from the mongers is you don't need all this damn diversification that's plenty of you're lucky if You' got four good assets I think the finance professors and the that sell the idea that perfect diversification is professional investment if you're trying to do better than average you're lucky if you have four things to buy and to ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beer it's it's very few people get have enough brains to get 20 good Investments