저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 금 대비 바닥권에 있으며 변동성 큰 상승추세가 재개될 것이라는 견해. 미국 CPI 4.2%가 1~2%로 크게 낮아지면 10년물 금리 급락 가능성. 원자재 상승은 인플레보다 생산 수요 신호로 해석. 외국인 미국채 보유는 여전히 증가 중이라 탈달러 서사에 반대. 감세·규제완화·혁신 환경으로 달러는 강세 전망. 비트코인 장기 상승 추세는 유지된다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Gold is falling. Bitcoin was falling. It looks like he is in the process of hitting rock bottom. We believe that on this basis it has bottomed out and will resume the very volatile but broad uptrend that you see on this chart. We believe that a breakout in Treasury yields could occur. If we are right, inflation will move significantly away from 4.2 percent, which is the current consumer price index, to something much lower.
Real inflation is already lower, and we can see it becoming negative. Government measures can move in the range of 1 to 2%. While many investors remain focused on short-term price swings, Katie Wood believes the larger story of Bitcoin is still unfolding. Its latest forecast suggests that strong market and economic trends could create the conditions for significant long-term growth.
Bitcoin appears to be laying the groundwork for its next big rally, according to ARK Invest CEO and CIO Katie Wood, who believes the asset has likely completed a major phase of bottoming out relative to gold. Despite recent volatility and periods of weakness in both assets, she views Bitcoin’s consolidation as a normal part of a long-term cycle, rather than evidence of a long-term trend reversal.
The key takeaway for crypto investors is that Wood continues to expect Bitcoin's broader upward trajectory to remain intact as market adoption and maturity continue to develop. Her forecast is also supported by several macroeconomic trends. Wood argues that rising commodity prices should not be seen as a warning sign of widespread inflation.
Instead, stronger demand for commodities appears to reflect a recovery in manufacturing activity and improving economic conditions. In this environment, higher commodity prices may signal growing production needs rather than sustained inflationary pressures. Which also calls into question the popular narrative of de-dollarization.
While some countries, including China and India, have reduced some of their U.S. Treasury holdings, overall foreign ownership of Treasury bonds continues to grow. She notes that much of the selling was driven by efforts to support local currencies against a strong U.S. dollar, while global demand for U.S.
government debt remains strong. Together, these events reinforce her constructive long-term view of Bitcoin. Share your thoughts in the comments and don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to receive more information about the cryptocurrency market. Commodity price index. This is not a percentage change from last year.
This is a level. You see, we had a little bit of a spike here, and that, uh, corresponds to the increase in the purchasing managers' index. Uh, if the dollar rises, it will put downward pressure on commodity prices, since most goods are priced in dollars. Uh, and you can see that the dollar has been up a little bit recently, and commodity prices have been up a little bit.
Oil is part of the commodity complex, so it will certainly have, uh, an impact on this decline. But, if we're right, and production recovers as strongly, uh, as we think, it's already started. Uh, then we will need or we will get a signal from the commodity market that demand is increasing relative to supply, and that will mean upward pressure on prices for many commodities.
Uh, so we don't think this is an indicator of broad-based inflation. It's more and more just a signal, a call for more production, uh, more supply. You can effectively see foreign holders of Treasury bonds. Given all of history, you might think that every central bank is selling Treasuries and that the dollar's time is coming to an end.
But this chart shows that this is not true. There were some sales. We know that both China and India were selling. But for the most part, um, they also slowed down the growth rate. But for the most part, Treasury securities held abroad are still rising. So we wanted to put this in perspective, because last time you saw it, we showed a chart where Turkey actually had no Treasury bonds.
It supported its currency by selling Treasury bonds and, um, taking dollars and buying Turkish lira. So we see that currencies around the world, Japan and Korea, which I mentioned earlier, these currencies, I think the Japanese currency is at a 40- year low, about 162 yen to the dollar. And so they are likely to take more concerted action.
We saw that Japan apparently sold what appears to be $76 billion worth of Treasury bonds in April in an attempt to support its currency. This was not enough. The price has fallen to a historic low . So we hear this story, but I would like to present this chart because there is no massive withdrawal of U.S.
Treasury securities . Bitcoin to gold, gold is falling. Bitcoin was falling. It seems he is in the process of hitting rock bottom. We believe it has bottomed out on this basis and will resume the very volatile but broad uptrend you see on this chart. While many investors expect a weakening dollar, Katie Wood sees a very different outcome unfolding in global markets.
Katie Wood takes a position that contrasts with the popular market narrative, arguing that the US dollar could strengthen rather than weaken in the near term. Despite softer employment data and reduced expectations for additional monetary policy tightening, she believes capital will continue to flow into the United States due to its excellent investment opportunities.
For Bitcoin investors, this perspective is important , as a stronger dollar is often seen as a headwind for risk assets. However, Wood continues to maintain confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential, along with his positive outlook for the US economy. A key factor in its forecast is the expectation of a sharp decline in inflation from the current CPI level of 4.2%.
Wood believes that inflation could move into the 1% to 2% range, creating the conditions for a significant drop in the yield on 10- year Treasury bonds. Lower yields have historically improved financial conditions and increased investor appetite for growth-oriented assets. She also highlights deregulation, corporate tax breaks, and America's leadership in innovation as key advantages.
The success of companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic demonstrates the ability of the U.S. economy to attract capital, talent, and investment, reinforcing its constructive outlook on both markets and long-term technological growth. Let's go back to the video. And you can see that this is our Cal sheet chart.
How high will the dollar rise this year? And, uh, you can see the number 104.9. Hmm, and it was higher before today's employment report. Uh, and we'll get to the employment report in a moment. Um, but in many ways it was much weaker than expected. And so the dollar, uh, the dollar forecasts, uh, have come down in terms of the level, uh, because, uh, most of the...I think most of the moves to tighten monetary policy have been left out of the forecasts.
And, uh, most people think that higher interest rates support the dollar. What is true? Uh, the dollar, uh, attracts, uh, more buyers when interest rates are higher here. Uh, but if you notice, uh, you can't see it on this graph. You will see this in the following graph. The dollar is actually the same today as it was yesterday.
Today it's about 100.5, somewhere in that range. So the bet is that the dollar will rise. At least, Kalshi Kalshi prediction markets think so. And we would agree with that. And-and- and for several reasons. I've been saying for some time that fiscal policy, that is, deregulation and massive tax cuts, especially for corporations, that we've seen over the last year, are starting to increase the return on invested capital in the United States relative to that abroad.
There's another thing that has become very obvious, and we saw it with the debut of SpaceX in the public markets, but which has created many, many millionaires and hundreds of millionaires. The return on invested capital is higher here, and the return on labor is higher here. The incentives for innovation in this country are unmatched anywhere in the world .
So, I think it's becoming very obvious. And of course, OpenAI and Anthropic will soon follow , and it will be the same story all over again. So we think the dollar is positive, as I've mentioned on many calls. I know this is not the story anyone is telling. And in fact , the end of American exceptionalism, in our opinion, is greatly exaggerated.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are very important examples. What will the 10-year Treasury yield react to more ? We believe that a collapse in Treasury yields may occur. If we're right, then inflation will move, uh, away from the headline 4.2% that the CPI is currently at, to something much lower. Real inflation is already lower, and we can see its negative trend.
Government measures can move in the range of 1 to 2%. Bitcoin's recent weakness may mask a much more constructive macroeconomic backdrop . If inflation declines from the current level of 4.2% CPI to a range of 1 % to 2%, Treasury bond yields could decline significantly, improving liquidity conditions in financial markets.
At the same time, continued demand for US Treasury bonds casts doubt on expectations of rapid de-dollarization, while confidence in American innovation and capital accumulation supports the case for a stable dollar. Rising commodity prices are also interpreted not so much as a warning of inflation, but as evidence of increased demand for production and economic activity.
For crypto investors, the combination of easing inflationary pressures, falling yields, and improving economic fundamentals could create a favorable environment for risk assets. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s consolidation phase may represent a temporary pause within a broader long-term uptrend as much as a break in the cycle, despite the volatility that remains inherent to the asset.
Do you think Bitcoin's next big rally will be driven more by falling inflation, falling Treasury yields, or increasing institutional adoption? Share your thoughts in the comments and don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to receive more information about the cryptocurrency market and investment analysis.
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