저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 금과 비트코인 모두 화폐 가치 하락 우려의 헤지 수단으로 보며, 장기적으로 비트코인 추세가 금보다 강하다고 봄. 미국 채권금리가 높게 유지되는 이유로 해외 자본의 미국 익스포저 축소를 지목하지만, 장기적으로 금리는 내려올 것으로 전망. 중국 디플레이션 우려와 구리 공급 충격을 언급하며, 신용 스프레드는 낮지만 사모신용 리스크는 경계. AI로 신입 채용이 줄어 청년 실업률이 5%에서 6.5%로 상승했다고 진단.
다듬은 글
So the trend the uptrend of Bitcoin relative to gold despite recent performance has not been broken at least not yet. Um we're very bullish on Bitcoin as you know uh longer term. Uh but gold is very recently has has given it a bit of competition. We we think they are both plays if that's what uh investors or speculators are betting on here on the debasement of fiat currencies.
uh and we think that both of them ultimately are going to rein in uh the the monetary policies that have been unhinged for the last 50 years. Um uh but that will take time uh that will take time. Markets don't move on headlines, they move on confidence and right now confidence in the global financial system is wearing thin.
Legendary investor Kathy Wood points out that tariffs, visa restrictions, and escalating geopolitical rifts have all added to the sense that the global economy is wobbling. In that kind of climate, fear becomes a powerful driver, and both gold and bitcoin have been clear beneficiaries. Lately, though, gold has taken the lead as investors worldwide turn to it as a hedge against political and monetary instability, which says this growing caution toward the US is part of why interest rates have remained stubbornly high.
When foreign investors pull back from treasuries, demand drops and yields stay elevated. It's not that inflation expectations are soaring, it's that global capital is hesitating. She expects that once confidence rebuilds, rates could fall, but for now, doubt is steering the ship. Stillwood argues that Bitcoin's long-term trajectory remains stronger than gold's.
Gold may shine in moments of fear, but Bitcoin continues to rise as a structural response to the decay of fiat trust. Both in her view are signals, early indicators that the world is losing faith in central bank money. The real reckoning, she says, is still ahead. If you found value in this breakdown, please hit the like button, subscribe, and share it with other investors who are paying attention.
We're here to keep bringing you sharp analysis and voices that actually understand what's unfolding. Thanks for watching. This is our metals to gold ratio. So, metals price to gold price. I continue to believe that somewhere in the world something is not right. And we've been saying we think it's China.
We think the deflationary bust there is worse than than uh the government is reporting. Uh that could be wrong. Uh you know uh but we can't figure this one out. The gold price has been very strong and it has been many people are calling it the debasement trade. Both gold and bitcoin have been strong on balance.
Gold recently much stronger than Bitcoin. So there there's definitely fear of something out there. Uh maybe it's not the deflationary bust uh in China. Although I still look at 40% investment relative to GDP in China as way too high. Sure, they're building 28 nuclear plants, but 40% of GDP that is not.
There is a lot of other investment going on in China which might be exacerbating the deflationary bust in property that uh that they're experiencing. But then again, in terms of gold prices going up, I mean, our our policies are are bringing about some of that. Um, you know, the the the geopolitical risks, tariffs, uh, the visa program that was announced this month.
You know, a lot of people are saying, I can't figure this out. And as I said, I've I've been around the world in the last 5 weeks and I think a lot of people are very negative on the US and I've just given you a bunch of reasons why we are not. But I do understand why they're negative because the headlines are uh so stark and they're not picking up what's going on underneath.
I think President Trump is a maestro at distracting uh with a lot of drama and then getting the job done. that happened in his first administration and I think it's happening in this administration as well. Nonetheless, people are saying I'm I am I'm going to lower my exposure to the US. Uh gold is my hedge.
It's an insurance policy and so forth. Uh and it may be why our interest rates have not come down. You know the for for the same reason governments and individuals abroad lowering their exposure to the US. Uh now I think that will reverse again for reasons I suggested but I do understand why we're seeing what we're seeing.
Um copper uh the trend is up. Uh here we're seeing more of a supply shock uh in Indonesia. I think one of the largest copper mines in the world is down. Um that we don't ignore these prices. Dr. copper it's the smartest commodity and tends to reflect uh economic activity. Uh so we just don't know how much is a supply side problem right now um uh versus uh increased demand.
Here is here are some of the market indicators that um strategists have focused us on. So negative strategists have focused us on the S&P relative to gold. Gold has been going up and you can see recently it has been going up relative to the S&P. uh and they would point us again to the 70s. This is the last time uh that that this metric uh based in this way and the resolution was very negative.
It was highly inflationary environment big deficits both trade and government and um and many fear that that's what we are going to uh face. We do not agree with that. One of the reasons we don't agree with that is on the next chart. This tends to be a leading indicator. This is the S&P to crude oil.
And the S&P is going up relative to crude oil. Uh you can see in the 70s what happened to this one. Uh it based and then collapsed. Uh so this would say um uh all clear. Uh and here is the 10-year Treasury yield again. Is it levitating because of governments and uh foreign investors pulling out of the US?
Perhaps. Perhaps. But if truth does win out, we think that uh we think that these long rates will come back in a bit at least until uh next year when it is clear, if we're right, we're in a very strong expansion. uh this is a a measure of risk and it's saying no problem. This is the high yield spread spread relative to treasuries and when it's low it says no problem.
Very few risks out there. Nothing to worry about. But as you can see it's low until it shoots up. And um we we do worry about private credit and private equity. We think there's a lot of disruption in old mature companies and if private credit and equity have levered them up there are going to be some real problems out there and that's going to be in the old world not in the new world it is going to be because of the new world which is all about innovation and then I'll end here on Bitcoin to gold so the trend the uptrend of Bitcoin relative to gold despite recent performance has not been broken, at least not yet.
Um, we're very bullish on Bitcoin as you know, uh, longer term. Uh, but gold is very recently has has given it a bit of competition. We we think they are both plays if that's what uh, investors or speculators are betting on here on the debasement of fiat currencies. uh and we think that both of them ultimately are going to rein in uh the the monetary policies that have been unhinged for the last 50 years.
Um uh but that will take time. Uh that will take time. Kathy would points to a quiet but important shift in the job market, one that's hitting new graduates hardest. Their unemployment rate has climbed from roughly 5% to 6.5% which might sound small but signals real strain at the entry level. Part of it is just a cooling economy, but the bigger force, she says, is artificial intelligence.
AI is starting to close off early career roles in research, data analysis, and product development. Tasks that once required a team of junior employees can now be handled by a handful of people using advanced tools. That shift is showing up in the data. The quit rate has fallen, meaning workers are less confident about finding new opportunities.
When people feel unsure, they stay where they are, even in jobs they dislike. At the same time, the average duration of unemployment is climbing. It used to peak at around 20 weeks, but now that's the floor 25 weeks is the new normal. That's nearly 6 months before landing another position. A clear sign that something deeper is changing.
Wood says job openings tell the same story. The economy may still be adding jobs overall, but the easy entry-level paths into many industries are quietly disappearing. Let's get back to the interview. Now, here you can see we're going into employment. While we didn't have uh we didn't have a report today, uh we want to lend some perspective to what's going on out there in employment.
So in the green is the monthly unemployment rate. Now it is being held down we believe uh by uh baby boomers retiring about 1.3 million per year. uh and um immigrants. You see in the purple because of the unemployment for recent grads. Uh and you can see in this rolling recession that employment rate unemployment rate has gone up from roughly 5 to 6 and a half%.
Uh and um it's going up for a couple of reasons. Uh one is cyclical as I just mentioned. uh but the other is because of technology AI in particular is starting to limit the increase in entrylevel jobs. Uh we don't need as many new research associates as we might have um as we might have needed given that we've started up new products and so forth.
Um because we are automating. We're using Palunteer uh and we're all all vibe coding. I'm not going to tell you I'm doing a lot of vibe coding myself, but I've dabbled with Replet and it's really empowering if you have the time to do it. Uh so uh you can see on this chart uh the quit rate has has gone down is going down and is where it typically goes during a recession.
Uh people do not quit their jobs if they believe they will not be able to get another one. And uh the duration of employment I think I have this in this pack here. Uh the duration of employment, yes indeed, is going up. Uh it's gone from roughly 20 weeks at its low recently to 25 weeks. But take a look at what's happened over time.
Uh there's something structural going on. Uh the 20 weeks is where it used to peak. And um in the early8s before we entered regonomics or as we were entering it it um it bottomed at 10. So now uh it's bottoming at 20. So and and moving to 25. That's a half year. So when a person loses a job um he or she on average has to wait uh almost half a year uh for a new opportunity.
that these are all averages. Of course, this is not true for everyone. I do think this uh move towards automation is exacerbating uh this trend right now. And here you can see it in living color. So here is US job openings. We we did get this number. The job opening number uh continues to come down.
But take a look at what happened after chat GBT was released. We had been in again supply chain issues, tough to get labor back uh during COVID and after COVID. Uh but now the number of job o openings is continuing to decline and normally when it has declined this much we are in a recession. Um the counterbalance here of course is if companies are not hiring uh and are harnessing AI and other productivity enhancing tools um their their margins are not suffering and um that is one reason capital spending X AI it has it has been weak but it has not collapsed.
Uh so companies know they have to invest. Something deeper is stirring beneath the surface of the global economy. Confidence once the invisible engine that kept markets and institutions running smoothly is now fraying. What we're witnessing isn't just volatility. It's the erosion of trust in systems once thought unshakable.
Investors aren't reacting to headlines anymore. They're reacting to a creeping realization that the foundation of monetary and political stability has cracked. Gold's renewed dominance and Bitcoin's steady advance aren't competing trends. Their parallel expressions of the same story. People searching for safety outside the traditional order.
At the same time, the job market tells its own unsettling truth. A generation entering the workforce is finding doors that used to open easily now locked by automation and uncertainty. Artificial intelligence, once sold as a tool for productivity, is quietly reshaping who gets to participate in the economy at all.
Long job hunts, fading confidence, and shrinking opportunities suggest that the labor structure built over decades is being rewritten faster than workers can adapt. What we're left with is a world where financial systems feel fragile. Technology is displacing rather than empowering and the old promises of security, whether in money or employment, no longer hold.
The question that hangs in the air now is whether societies can rebuild real confidence, not the illusion created by rising asset prices or digital hype, but the kind rooted in stability, opportunity, and trust. If that rebuilding fails, do gold and Bitcoin become lifeboats or simply mirrors reflecting the decline of everything they were meant to hedge against?
So stay tuned. If you're into real databacked takes on the financial system, hit like and subscribe so you don't miss the weekly updates. Thank you for the support and I hope you enjoy the video.
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