저자: Defi Finance · 외국인
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yeah we're not picking favorites obviously except I will say this we do think Bitcoin is special and I can get into to the reasons why why that's a great thing yeah well I meanit Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency it's the first one it's the only one that doesn't have an issuer right it's it's very decentralized it's you know in crypto they call this the Immaculate Conception we don't really know how it got here we don't know who Satoshi is it's almost mystical you would say yes it's the most valuable one it has a$2 trillion doll market cap and it's the most secure it's ever been hacked right so we're now you know over 15 years into this journey and there's been a lot of people who've been skeptical along the way and there's been a lot of ups and downs but here it is I mean I remember back in 2011 I think it's the first time I bought a Bitcoin I think it was at $120 now it's at $90,000 the cryptocurrency market has faced another wave of extreme volatility with Bitcoin dropping 7% ethereum and xrp losing 9% and cardano and Dogecoin seeing double- digigit decline saw within 24 hours several factors contributed to This downturn concerns over a potential global trade War arose after president Trump imposed tariffs on imports from China Canada and Mexico the US's largest trading partners economic uncertainty deepened when he declined to clarify whether these tariffs could trigger a recession additionally China's Consumer Price Index saw its sharpest decline in 13 months marking the 30th consecutive month of producer price deflation raising concerns about about global economic growth on the technical side many investors secured profits ahead of major events like the White House crypto Summit however experts believe that the market has strong recovery potential White House Ai and crypto Chief David saak highlighted president Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset stockpile as key factors that could fuel a market Rebound in the coming months before we get into Sax's insights from the all-in podcast stay connected with us for more updates if you're interested in market trends and financial analysis make sure you don't miss out on our future content now let's dive in the president has lived up to one of his campaign promises this is not something new remember you go all the way back to his National speech during the campaign and he reiterated this many times that he wanted to create a strategic Bitcoin Reserve sometimes he called it a digital asset stockpile what we've ultimately done here is both he also in his week one EO on crypto you guys remember I came on sure to talk about that he asked our president's working group on digital asset to evaluate the idea of a reserve or stockpile and we made a recommendation and this Administration is moving at Tech speed it's really great to work for an Administration where you can actually get things done and things move quickly we made our recommendation and then we work with the lawyers to implement it and President signed it last night but this is fully consistent with everything he's he's always said yeah we're not picking favorites obviously except I will say this we do think Bitcoin is special and I can get into to the reasons why expl why that's a great thing yeah well I mean Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency it's the first one it's the only one that doesn't have an issuer right it's it's very decentralized it's you know in crypto they call this the Immaculate Conception we don't really know how it got here we don't know who Satoshi is it's almost mystical you would say yes it's the most valuable one it has a$2 trillion market cap and it's the most secure it's never been hacked right so we're now you know over 15 years into this journey and there's been a lot of people who've been skeptical along the way there's been a lot of ups and downs but here it is I mean I remember back in 2011 I think it's the first time I bought a Bitcoin I think it was at $12 now it's at $90,000 again there have been all sorts of wild swings along the way but this thing just keeps keeps chugging along and you can think of that $2 trillion market cap as like a$2 trillion bug Bounty if there was a way to hack this there's every incentive in the world and by hack I mean like to double spend czy basically a counterfeit Bitcoin I guess would be the way for people to think about it and so the miracle it hasn't been compromised I think we can all say that well I don't know if it's a miracle I think it's exceptional design sure you know and so I think I think what you could say is that it's been tested in a very robust way and there's been every incentive to basically break the encryption and it continues to chug along and so I think the price has gone up as the protocol has gotten more acceptance and this is another point is that bitcoin's most widely accepted as a store of value throughout the world yeah so we do believe it should be treated special now that being said we're also creating the digital asset stock pile so the reserve is just Bitcoin the goal is long-term preservation think of it as like a digital Fort Knox for digital gold we want to put the digital gold in there we want to keep it secure we never want to sell it that's the goal of the reserve and you're right that we've made the mistake in the past of selling this stuff at one point in time we had about 400,000 Bitcoin on the federal balance sheet we sold roughly half of that for something like $360 million total if we had held all of that it would be worth just that the portion we sold would be worth over 17 billion so we made this mistake of prematurely selling Bitcoin when we should have held it we don't want to make that mistake with regard to the rest of it we think there's around 200,000 coins left on the federal balance sheet but the truth is that nobody knows because we've never done a proper audit so part of what this executive order provides is that we're going to do for the first time a government wide accounting of the digital assets that we actually have so and if digital assets emerge in some Department I don't know the FBI sees a some the CIA sees a some I don't know which organization winds up having them they're going to be legally required to report that and then put them in the reserve well they'll they'll be legally required to report it and then they'll go in the reserve if there's a final adjudication so you know obviously if those coins could go back as restitution to victims or if the person who they were seized from wins their court case and gets them back they're not going to go into the Federal Reserve but if there's been a final adjudication and a final forfeiture yes those will go into the reserve anyway that's Bitcoin okay so then you got the stock pile let me just talk about that so first of all like I said we don't know exactly what digital assets the federal government has I've seen reports that it might have for example 50,000 eth which is ethereum but again we need to get to the bottom of that when we figure out exactly what the assets are we're going to move them into the digital stockpile the the purpose of the stockpile is responsible stewardship it's a place for safekeeping it's a centralized you could say account under the direction of the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of the Treasury will figure out how to maximize the values of these Holdings now there's a couple of important differences between stockpile and Reserve so one is the reserve the executive order actually provides that the Secretary of the Treasury will not sell the Bitcoin okay we're we're prohibited from selling the Bitcoin there's no such prohibition with respect to the stock pilot if the Secretary of Treasury decides that's in the long-term interest of the US to rebalance the portfolio or change the portfolio the secretary has the discretion to do that that's largely fair I mean look I think that the stockpile should be subject to good portfolio management right unfortunately we have a Secretary of the Treasury who is an extremely successful former hedge fund manager so he's going to figure out the best way to manage these assets and we give him the flexibility to do portfolio management whereas like die with that what he does he has to make those decisions and and that's going to be you know um part of how he's evaluated by the president so hopefully he's going to be sharp about that right but the reserve is different right the reserve is just digital for KNX now there's one other important difference between stockpile and Reserve so with respect to to reserve the the EO provides that the secretaries and I'm talking about Treasury and commerce they're allowed to figure out strategies to accumulate more Bitcoin for the reserve if those strategies are budget neutral and don't cost a taxpayer anything okay so it's possible that we could I'm not saying that we will but it gives them it authorizes them to acquire more Bitcoin if they can figure out a way to do it that doesn't impact the federal budget or the deficit or taxpayers right president Trump's tariff policies are one of the biggest economic concerns today his administration has implemented major tariffs including a 25% Duty on most imports from Canada and Mexico as of the 4th of March 2025 these tariffs aim to pressure these nations to take stronger action against illegal immigration and drug trafficking in response Canada imposed 25% tariffs on $30 billion worth of us Goods planning to expand it to $125 billion while Mexico is also considering counter measures on the 10th of February 2025 Trump announced a 25% tariff on All Steel and aluminum Imports removing previous exemptions set to take effect on the 12th of March 2025 while some speculate about the motives Behind these measures the administration insists they are essential for National Security and protecting domestic Industries during the podcast billionaire investor chamath piapa and entrepreneur David Friedberg shared their views explaining why they see these tariffs as a necessary step for the US economy I think that this is the first week where I've seen the first real Schism in how people are interpreting what's actually happening I think that Trump and Elon were very much in a honeymoon period until this week and I think there was the benefit of the doubt but what I saw on X was a real Divergence where on the one hand there were people that were basically saying doge is deranged Elon is crazy Trump is lighting the world on fire in one camp and the other Camp saying he's sticking to the plan and when I thought about this a little bit if you went back to November the 5th I do think it's important to remember that we were at this moment where you had this fork in the road and you had all these important issues where I think the best way to generalize it was that the Democrats believed that the lines should continue to be blurred so whether that was on gender or race or Merit versus some other immutable trait or fiscal and Monet monetary policy things were just getting more and more blurred and then Trump and Elon basically showed up and said actually we want to refocus and we want to make the lines very visible and clear on all those dimensions and a majority of Americans voted that in but I think what you're starting to see now is the difficulty in actually implementing that plan and what I mean specifically is tariffs are very nuanced and complicated on the one hand there's these short-term wins there's these impacts you could deem them positive or negative to the dollar there's impacts to us bonds there's impacts to us Bond markets there's impacts how countries deal with foreign reserves and then there's this impact that happens when the markets react to a tariff and then Trump takes that off the table and then they snap back so you have this weird set of boundary conditions right now so I think right now we're in the very difficult part of sorting through what the long-term implications are and I can get to some of them later but I think that's where we are I think what tariffs allow us to do is re base the long-term Reliance on the US dollar it allows us to rebase our ability to fund our own deficits and it allows us to rebase the long-term ability for American companies to be economically vibrant I don't sit inside of Trump's head and I don't have any direct line of communication to folks that are constructing the theory and the policy if I were to say what's the most masterful plan in an optimistic way of what could be going on here what's the master plan I would kind of craft it as follows tariffs aren't being done in isolation they're being done along with a coordinated policy effort to reduce income taxes and another policy effort to reduce government spending so those are three actions three legs on a stool so tariffs reduced income taxes reduced government spending and they are related to each other they're related to each other because if we increase tariffs one element of that is that to import products is more expensive for example I buy LED lights in my greenhouse and the price of the LED lights just went up by 25% this week I actually spoke with the CEO of an LED company and I was like why don't you guys make the LEDs here and there starts to become a crossover point where it actually makes economic sense for the company to make the LEDs here instead of sourcing them from Asia and there's 100,000 examp of this when the industrial supply chain goes to the lowest part of production it's going to end up offshoring when there's no tariffs and if there are tariffs then you start to do production here so you're increasing both kind of security for the US supply chain but also increasing demand and creation of a Workforce Now I think that the income tax piece is critical here because in order to make the capital available to build that industry here we need to have unleash capital and reducing of income taxes the economic theory would be that Capital will now flow into these entrepreneurial activity these opportunities that have emerged where suddenly it makes sense for me to make textiles to make metals to make materials to make cars to make all this stuff here in the United States that otherwise wouldn't be making so both the corporate and the personal income tax by reducing it unleashes capital that instead of going into the government it now goes into the private sector into building businesses okay I think that there's another theory about this which is as you drop the income tax one of the kind of key theories that I've heard spoken about a lot lately and I think we're going to hear about it a lot more this year is trying to get the United States to move away from an income taxation model to a consumption taxation model so effectively what the tariffs do is there's a tax for you buying certain things so now instead of getting taxed when you earn money as an individual you get taxed when you spend money and some people think that that's both a more fair system and a more kind of economically vibrant system because that will drive investment in the things that people want to produce because the money's going into production think do you think that free I'm curious I I don't know it's a really interesting economic theory I mean I am not opposed to seeing some sort of an experiment play out where we look at a shift from income taxation to consumption Taxation and see if it actually does have an effect on economic growth and productivity it has not been done in 150 years there's a lot of economic theorists on both sides of the equation saying this does work or it doesn't work okay and let me just say one last thing by reducing government spending we are moving workers from the government into the private Workforce so as those new Industries pop up as those Investments start to get made in building new industry onshore where are the workers going to come from remember the government's 30% of the US GDP today so if that's not a great way to invest money maybe the Private Industry is better at investing money in employing people that will unleash the workforce and it will counterbalance the inflation that we're experiencing so there's a lot of because of tariffs and by reducing government spending that's the offset to inflation so those three actions I think are three legs of a stool and they actually are all interrelated to one another so that would be my grandm theory of what might be going on like Friedberg Ark invest CEO Kathy Wood believes Trump's tariff policies might be a setup for major tax cuts during his first term Trump's tax cuts and jobs Act tcja of 2017 lowered corporate tax rates from 35 to 21% with individual tax tax cuts set to expire soon the administration is now considering extending these cuts and reducing corporate taxes further to 15% for us-based manufacturers Commerce Secretary Howard lutnick estimates reciprocal tariffs could generate $700 billion annually potentially eliminating the national deficit lowering interest rates and Shifting the tax burden from citizens to foreign entities Kathy Wood compares the current economic climate to the early 1980s when Reagan's tax and interest rate Cuts led to massive economic growth she believes Trump's policies could have an even greater impact what's your take on this drop your thoughts in the comments and if you enjoy staying ahead in the world of finance and crypto keep following our updates you won't want to miss what's coming next thanks for watching
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