저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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미국 경제는 2022년 이후 이어진 '롤링 리세션'의 막바지이며 곧 해소될 것이라는 주장. 애틀랜타 연은 GDPNow는 2025년 1분기 실질 GDP를 -2.4%로 추정하지만 Wood는 시장이 향후 6개월의 경기 둔화를 무시하고 생산성 주도 성장으로 넘어갈 것으로 봄. 4.5조 달러 규모 감세(팁·사회보장·초과근무 비과세 포함)와 소급 적용 기대, 관세는 세입 확대 및 감세 협상 수단으로 해석. 고용은 2월 해고 17.2만 건 등 악화 신호가 있으나 교육·헬스케어 중심 고용 의존을 지적. 규제 완화와 AI·로보틱스 등 기술혁신이 생산성을 높여 인플레이션을 누르고 강한 성장과 주식시장 상승을 이끌 것이라 전망.
다듬은 글
I I think the Shocker to a lot of people is we've entered here in 2025 and the FED Atlanta's GDP now indicator suggests that the first quarter uh will be down in terms of real GDP growth down 3% at an annual rate from the fourth quarter to the F first quarter uh and that has unnerved a lot of people um because the economy seemed to be doing fine so now what I'd like to do is talk a little bit uh about why we probably are in the last phase of this rolling recession the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP now model which provides real-time economic forecasts has recently projected a contraction in the US economy for q1 2025 as of the 6th of March the model estimates a minus 2.4% growth rate a slight improvement from Theus 2.8% projection on the third of March several factors have contributed to this negative outlook including heightened trade tensions and new tariffs that have raised costs for consumers and businesses these conditions have dampened manufacturing sentiment and slowed consumer spending to key GDP drivers additionally a surge in Goods Imports likely due to businesses stockpiling ahead of tariffs has further impacted GDP calculations since higher Imports subtract from GDP figures us manufacturers have also reported declines in new orders in employment signaling a potential slowdown the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 hovering just above the contraction threshold this economic downturn has raised concerns about the overall trajectory for 2025 with some experts predicting that trade policies and tariffs could drive inflation higher prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain or even raise interest raised potentially restraining investment and spending however AR invest founder and CEO Kathy Wood holds a different perspective she believes the US economy has been undergoing a rolling recession since 2022 which is now easing and may fully resolve in the coming weeks rather than trade and inflation dominating headlines she anticipates discussions around tax cuts deregulation and productivity growth ultimately leading to a surge in GDP and a bullish economic outlook before we dive deeper into Cathy's analysis don't forget to like this video subscribe to the channel and turn on post notifications for more insightful content let's get started um we've been talking about a rolling recession uh since uh the FED started jacking up interest rates in 2022 for for three years a little more than three years now um we believe we've been in a rolling recession and we're coming to the end of it uh so so that's the good news um the bad news is we do have to go through this process um bottom line however we think after this initial shutter that uh the equity markets are going to look through whatever the next next six month holds uh in terms of uh in term terms of economic activity uh into a future where uh we see productivity driving real GDP growth at an accelerated rate in an exciting way and at the same time inflation continuing to come down because productivity is going up uh productivity is a powerful antidote to inflation and uh we think we're probably on the threshold of some of the most important productivity gains in history uh so just wanted to set the stage this way um before we go on what is happening in these first six months of the year as you know there was a lot of hope uh coming out of the election that uh that we were going to be on our way in terms of in terms of the Equity markets uh health and the broadening out of the equity Market as a sign of itself health and it has begun uh but as always two steps forward one step back so let's talk about the one step back in terms of fiscal policy um from our point of view the most important proposal out there right now is the 4.5 trillion doll tax cut that uh that did make it through the house they passed a budget with A45 trillion tax cut in it and that's in addition to the $1.9 trillion uh tax cut that is uh part of the tax cut and jobs act tcga uh that was scheduled to expire at the end of this this year uh and we don't think it will expire this 4 and2 trillion is on top of that now you must be wondering uh what the heck is going on here that just sounds like a bigger deficit a bigger hole out there well that those numbers are over a 10year period but I think one of the most important things we're learning is that uh the uh the tax rate cuts themselves will will be retroactive to January 20th um now that's not casting concrete at all uh but we have heard in and around the administration talk of retroactive tax cuts why is that so important important well we learned from the Reagan Revolution that phasing in tax cuts is a recipe for a very deep recession uh because uh people and businesses defer economic activity uh in order to capture the lower tax rates uh and so I think this Administration has learned from the Reagan Administration that phasing in is not a good idea uh so that that is very important in terms of information um the Senate version of uh the the budget is not out yet uh and then we'll have to go through a Reconciliation I I think what's so interesting about the way that President Trump has Set uh this tax cut up is in terms of what people know is going to take place and I think the president repeated it in his uh session to Congress this week uh no taxes on tips Social Security or overtime now those tax uh benefits are very appealing to the lower and middle class uh which tends to benefit uh from those three sources of income and uh so president Trump and team cannot be accused of favoring the rich uh I think the other thing we're going to see here is that the the threats and an actual reality of tariffs which is causing a lot of consternation I do not like tariffs they are tax increases but uh I think that the president and we'll get into this when we go through the charts again the president is hearkening back to the early days of our country where T tariffs actually supported the government the primary source of income for for the government way back then was tariffs and then of course today tariffs account for very little funding of government spending and income taxes uh account for most of it uh business and uh and consumer Kathy Wood argues that the ongoing tariff discussions are part of a broader strategy to push for tax cuts similar to those implemented during Trump's first term in 2017 the tax cuts and jobs act reduced corporate tax rates from 35 to 21% making American businesses more globally competitive wood believes Trump's renewed tariff Focus serves as leverage for further tax reductions as tariff Revenue could be used to justify income tax cuts without significantly increasing the deficit Beyond policy wood sees this strategy as a way to restore economic confidence she highlights the concept of animal spirits a surge in optimism that encourages spending investment and risk-taking lower taxes mean businesses and individuals retain more earnings fueling job creation increased consumer spending and stock market growth this cycle according to wood could drive a strong economic recovery so now what I'd like to do is talk a little bit uh about why we probably are in the last phase of this rolling recession and it is employment Friday I'm not going to spend a lot of time on the January employment report it's January there's a lot of uh I'm sorry the February employment report there was a lot of bad weather a lot of distortions um uh but if uh if I can uh give you a few statistics from other reports that have come out recently on Unemployment uh the Challenger survey shows that uh layoffs are up more than 100% year-over-year this is a very volatile series um but in terms of actual numbers I think in February uh the number was 172,000 layoffs and if you look at in the context of History pre or or since Co that number was in the 50 to 60,000 uh uh per month range so that's a tripling uh and then just to compare it to other recessions historically um in uh 08 and 09 and also 01 and 02 we got to a peak in terms of layoffs of 240,000 so this is getting awfully close to those uh in covid the peak was understandably 400,000 I don't think we'll get anywhere near there but that 172,000 put in perspective to 0809 and 0102 that was the uh uh financial crisis and the Tekken Telecom bust uh it says the layoffs are are getting up there we we'll also see in the National Federation of Independent uh business report next week uh an indicator uh showing um renewed weakness in employment um where where the the small business sector has been extremely weak for the last uh 3 years and is relapsing after a little bit of excitement after uh the election uh we saw the ADP report it was subpar 77,000 uh the only other thing uh I'll point out from this report today government in total did add 11,000 jobs um more than all of them were at the state and local um uh part of the government sector uh the federal government uh lost 10,000 jobs and uh we think that number is going to mount considerably um if you uh if if we're taking a step back and trying to figure out why consumer and business confidence is is falling now again uh it's because there is a lot of fear associated with this transition um from one Administration to the other and um and and some feeling of chaos uh uh and that's that's the art of negotiation so uh we're taking that as such right now um but if you look at all government employment so uh Federal which is is federal employment is less than 2% of the the uh employment in the United States but federal state and local uh combined is closer to 25% and then you have quasi government in Education and healthc Care uh and you're talking about a third of the labor force and so uh a lot of people are probably wondering um is my job at risk or is this move shifting spending from the federal sector down towards the states going to help me uh so uncertainty certainly is is the watch word uh the reason Education and healthc Care are important is if you look over the the last 12 months um uh those two sectors have been responsible for I think it's 90 yeah 95% of uh employment creation and that's a 12 mon month moving average but 95% uh in the early days uh of the last Administration those two sectors accounted for only 10% of job gains um over a 12mon moving average uh period so um um we're paying very careful attention and then of course there is um the concern that technology is going to take jobs AI is becoming so proficient uh we know coding jobs are starting to the number is starting to go down um there are I'm sure a lot of entrylevel positions that are not opening up because of artificial intelligence and other techn techology so there is a lot of fear on the uh employment front Kathy Wood envisions an economic landscape vastly different from mainstream projections while concerns about tariffs inflation and recession persist she believes these issues are fading instead she anticipates an era of tax cuts deregulation and Rapid technological advancements fueling unprecedented growth a key pillar of her optimism is deregulation she argues that reducing bureaucratic obstacles will unlock new investment opportunities particularly in AI biotechnology and clean energy in her view previous regulations have stifled Innovation whereas a trumpet Administration would likely prioritize cutting red tape mirroring early Trends from his first term technological innovation according to Wood will also play a critical role in boosting productivity advances in AI Robotics and automation are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs countering inflationary pressures while driving economic expansion if these Innovations gain momentum as she predicts businesses could experience profitability surges leading to higher wages increased consumer spending and a robust stock market would seize these combined factors lower taxes deregulation and Rapid Tech progresses the foundation for a powerful economic boom in the coming years while some economies caution against stagnation she believes the US is on the brink of a transformative growth period what do you think are we heading toward economic Resurgence or will challenges like inflation and trade tensions continue to weigh on growth share your thoughts in the comments below if you enjoyed this breakdown of Kathy Woods insights don't forget to like the video subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you never miss an update thanks for watching and we'll see you in the next one
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