저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 그랜섬은 2023년 말까지 S&P500이 3200pt까지 하락하고 최악의 경우 50% 폭락(약 2000pt) 가능성을 경고했다. 시장 상황: 극단적 버블은 꺼졌지만 현재 밸류에이션은 장기 평균에서 여전히 멀다. 펀더멘털이 악화되면 과거처럼 추세 아래로 과도하게 조정될 가능성이 높다. 약세장 완화 요인: 대통령 주기(Presidential Cycle), 인플레이션 둔화, 견조한 노동시장, 중국 경제 재개방이 약세장을 멈추거나 지연시킬 수 있다. 향후 12~18개월간 기업 펀더멘털 악화 정도가 핵심이다. 장기 문제: 인구 감소, 원자재 부족, 기후변화 피해가 성장 전망을 점점 압박하고 있으며 작년의 자원·지정학적 충격이 이를 악화시킨다. 부동산 리스크: 금리 환경 변화로 향후 수년간 글로벌 부동산 시장 하락 가능성이 경제에 큰 위험이다. 코로나 부양금 잔여분(2021년 말 약 2~3조 달러 → 현재 절반 미만)이 소진되면 경기를 떠받치던 힘이 사라지고 주식시장에도 타격이 올 수 있다. 경기침체 신호: 10Y-3M 국채 수익률 곡선이 0 아래로 떨어질 때마다 침체가 뒤따랐다는 점을 지표로 제시했다. 종목 의견: GMO 미국 주식 펀드가 보유한 애플, 마이크로소프트, 엑슨모빌, 크로거는 여전히 수익 잠재력이 있으나 단기 손실 가능성은 배제할 수 없다.
다듬은 글
Jeremy Grantham, a renowned British-born investor, and the co-founder of the globally recognized investment management firm GMO, warns another epic bubble in financial markets is bursting — and the turmoil that swept through the banking sector last month is just the beginning. In January 2023, He anticipates a potential decline that could drive the S&P 500 down to 3200 points by the end of the year.
In a worst-case scenario, Grantham foresees the S&P 500 plunging as much as 50 percent, which would leave the index around 2000 points. Let's take a closer look at his viewpoints and predictions. Jeremy Grantham was born on October 6, 1938, in London, England. Grantham began his career as an economist, working for various organizations such as the Royal Dutch Shell and the World Bank.
In 1977, he co-founded GMO, which has since become a prominent global asset management firm. Grantham has a long and successful investment career spanning several decades. He is known for his value investing approach and his focus on long-term investment strategies. Jeremy Grantham gained widespread attention for his accurate predictions of various inancial bubbles and market downturns.
He successfully predicted the Japanese asset bubble in the late 1980s, the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, and the housing bubble that led to the 2008 financial crisis. Grantham's insights and predictions about financial markets are indeed highly regarded in the investment community. On January 24, 2023, Grantham wrote a letter to his clients, entitled 'AFTER A TIMEOUT, BACK TO THE MEAT GRINDER'.
First. Market situation is becoming complex: The most extreme bubbles in the market have been wiped off, but the current valuations are still far from their long-term averages. In the past, these have usually overcorrected below the trend when the fundamentals deteriorated, and such an outcome is still highly likely.
Second, Possible pause or delay in the bear market: Several factors, including the underappreciated strong Presidential Cycle, subsiding inflation, the ongoing strength of the labor market, and the reopening of the Chinese economy, could lead to a pause or delay in the bear market. The degree of deterioration in corporate fundamentals will be crucial over the next 12 to 18 months.
Third, Long-term problems persist: For long-horizon investors, the long-run issues of declining population, raw materials shortages, and damage from climate change are starting to bite hard into growth prospects. The resource and geopolitical shocks from last year will only exacerbate these issues. Forth, Possible downturn in the global property market: Given the change in the interest rate environment, the possibility of a downturn in global property markets over the next few years poses a significant risk to the economy.
In addition, a big part of why our economy has been holding up is because of this huge pile of extra cash from the Covid-19 stimulus. Depending on how you crunch the numbers, we had about $2-3 trillion of this extra money floating around in late 2021. Throughout 2022, we've been dipping into this stash, and now less than half of it is left.
Some folks reckon it'll all be gone by the middle of the year, and then we won't have that to prop up the economy anymore. Now, here's the thing. This kind of stimulus - where everyone gets a bit of extra cash in their pocket - doesn't do a ton for the economy right away, but it sure does make a difference in the stock market, and fast.
Last year, when institutions and hedge funds were running for the hills, regular folks were buying the dips like there's no tomorrow, pouring money into the market. So, if we use up all this extra cash from 2022, we could feel it in the stock market too. Let's take a look at the following chart: The 10Y-3M U.S.
Treasury yield curve is often used as an indicator of economic health and can sometimes forecast impending recessions. In normal economic conditions, the yield (or interest rate) on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (10Y) is higher than that on a 3-month U.S. Treasury bill (3M). On this graph, it means '10y-3m' is greater than 0.
Every time the red line falls below the 0 axis, a recession, indicated by the gray area, will occur. Indeed, even during these challenging times, opportunities do exist. The GMO US equity fund holding companies like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), ExxonMobil (XOM), and Kroger (KR) could still provide potential for returns.
These companies - Apple, Microsoft, ExxonMobil, and Kroger - have strong business models, vast customer bases, and significant resources, making them potentially more resilient during market downturns. Still, no company is entirely immune to a significant market downturn, and short-term losses could occur.
So, Grantham's caution about the broad market decline is critical to keep in mind. We hope you found this information useful. If you have any comments, we welcome you to leave it below. Your input and discussions help us all learn more. Thanks for watching and we look forward to meeting you in our next video!
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