저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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디즈니 실적은 이익률 개선과 비용절감 덕에 양호했으나 주가가 실적발표 후 하락해 조정 구간이다. 스트리밍 흑자 전환, 파크(익스피리언스) 부문 호조, 디즈니플러스 가입자 감소(가격인상 영향) 등을 근거로 든다. 주가가 약 20배 PER로 저평가되어 매수 기회라고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
I was fishing last week they told me they only had steak for bait I didn't know fish like steak I got a little sidetracked because I couldn't stop thinking about something that happened earlier this month when Walt Disney reported what I thought was pretty fantastic quar on February 5th yet the stock sold off down nearly 2.5% the same day at the time I figured investors would quickly snap up this one oh come on buy the DB and in fact I don't think it even should have been down but it's now been 2 weeks later and the stock of Disney still hasn't recovered so I going to break this one Down For You full disclosure we've owned Disney for the chapel trust since 2018 and during that time the Stock's going from a huge winter to being a frustrating holding but I've been willing to stick with it especially since Bob Iger came back as CEO near the end of 2022 sure I threw my support up behind Nelson pelts the famous activist investor when he made a run at Disney last spring they had a board seat I still think the company could have benefited from his advice long story short though I like Disney's entertainment portfolio and it's underappreciated Parks business which is why we've stuck with the stock through years of underperformance I think we are going to win big on this one and I am patient now after the proxy fight this thing started showing signs of Life climbing from 83 and change in August to 118 at the highs last year largely thanks to a strong quarter in November by the time we got the next earnings report a couple weeks ago the stock had pulled back to 113 but it was still looking pretty good and then the company reported the stock sold off I think it's crazy just reported modest Revenue be pair with a major 31 Cent earnings trouncing off a145 basis that's thanks to very successful Cost Cuts hey those matter they still count the key theme of the quarter was impressive profitability as all three of Disney segments beat operating margin expectations entertainment most Support Division had a slight Revenue Miss easily explained and the Cost Cuts translated into much better than expected operating income or just look at the turnaround in their direct to Consumer business DC which is mostly the Disney plus streaming platform this used to be a money pick constantly burning cash in the latest quarter though it generated 293 million in operating income that's way ahead of what the NS were looking for Why didn't anybody Care stantial Improvement for the previous quarter streaming businesses now turn a profit in three of the past four quarters I'll take it the next big the next biggest division is experiences all right now this includes the parks business the criminally underrated Disney Cruises un you know we had a good special on that excellent quot a lot of investors were worried the business would be damaged by the hurricane especially since one of them forc Disney World to close for a couple days but no the experiences division did great with a terrific top and bottom line Beat I love this business hey by the way show me Netflix's experienc division they don't have meanwhile there's the smallest segment uh Sports which is mostly ESPN it also had a top and bottom line Beat for heaven sake right now Disney Sports division is focused on the upcoming launch of a new flagship ESPN app should offer meaningful improvement from the current ESPN plus streaming platform although it's probably not coming until next fall still it's nice to see the sports business delivering on profitability expectations ahead of time why didn't people focus on that so if everything was so darn great why the heck did the stock pull back in response to the quarter right there generally was not much hair on this one I saw a couple things cited I mean first despite the generally strong results for the reported quarter Disney didn't raise his full year forast for the 2025 fiscal year reiterating its call for high single digigit adjusted earnings per share growth for the year approximately $15 billion in cash fighted by operations but I've lik the guidance hike sure but I'm fine with management being cautious on the car CFO U Johnson one of the alltime great Finance guys out there really explained that the company felt it would be premature to raise its Outlook so early in the year given the quote revolving a rapidly evolving and quote economic environment okay that's he's a pro that's what he should do by the way he did a great job for years as CFO of PepsiCo he's handled this stuff he knows how to handle it he knows how to do these calls right the other source of potential disappointment Disney plus subscribers fell from 125.30 6 million during the quarter I didn't like this that slip in the subscriber count came after Disney put through a $2 price hike in mid- October for most of it subscription plans saw a lot of hand ringing about it the fact that hundreds of thousands of people chose to cancel now Disney also had The Misfortune of being compared to the aforementioned Netflix which had just reported that it added a record 19 million subscribers in the same period that hurt again though I still feel pretty sangin about Disney plus as we used to say in law school Netflix is Suey generous it's in a class of its own Disney plus will probably never be that good but it's delivering profitable growth right now and that's enough for me it should be for you too on the confence SCH Co Bob Iger offered some more encouraging commentary on streaming subscribers saying that the turn in the quarter was not as bad as magement expected given the price hies he noted the total streaming subscribers still grew in the quarter thanks to 1.6 million game from Hulu Disney expects overall subscriber growing growth for the streaming business this year that's thanks to a great slate of movie titles along with their password sharing Crackdown and improved algorithm to recommend content finally on the weekend after the quarter there was this really tough piece in the Wall Street Journal I called a high cost of Disney Vacation it mentioned that even Disney is worried about the issue we think that Spooks some investors to uh even if it's not exactly breaking news so you don't want to be reading that your tickets cost too much I come back though and I say if prices are so high why is the place always pack overall however I found a lot to like on the conference call and at that moment it certainly seemed that Wall Street agreed with me at least initially on the day of the report I was watching closely Disney opened up more than $2 at one point in early trading the stock hit a high of $118 in change that's up nearly 5% from the previous day's close then the stock reversed hideously finishing down that day almost 2.5% and it has not recovered since however after looking into the reasons why people sold Disney after the quarter I got to tell you I I think the BARC case thin I'm sticking with my gut that this was an excellent quarter for Disney and the weakness in the stock since the quarter is indeed a clear buying opportunity especially if you don't already have position this one we bought some more last week for the trust and on Thursday's new club meeting I will certainly be pounding the table on this one to right here the kicker after this latest pullback Disney trades is just under 20 times this year's earnings was Premier gross stock it's cheapest it's been in ases so here's the bottom line dis reported an excellent quarter a couple weeks ago but didn't get any credit for it uh mostly because management didn't want to aggressively raise their fouryear forecast so early in the year but the dip here has created a terrific buying opportunity for you with the stock NOW trading at bargain levels relative to the kind of valuation it used to get so you know what time to take a page from Jaylen Herz because we're going to Disney World let's take some questions let's go to bill in mes Bill Jimbo with your friend Boston Bill happy belated birthday my friend ah you're terrific for mentioning that my historic birthday thank you very much listen uh everything's been doing great I've I've been with the club this is going into our fourth year with the club and I'm loving it oh thank you Bill I hope you're on our call Thursday I hope you're on the call Thursday at 12 we give a shout out all right thank you absolutely your staff's incredible and I just wanted your opinion on uh Netflix it never seems to come down enough to really buy it but today it came down a little I wanted to know your opinion thank you a lot of the momentum stuff first of all Bill thank you for being so loyal thank you for a member of the club I look forward to Thursday's call because I know people you like it let me give you the Netflix story it's skinny very quickly every momentum stock came down today this was an attack on momentum and back into other classic growth stocks and what an opportunity to buy the stock on Netflix I do like that company very much you you know from the club that that Disney's cheap but Netflix is Suey generous none like it anyway look Disney did report an excellent quarter and the stock shouldn't be down it's trading it's one of the cheapest valuations I you I rarely pound the table like this I think it's probably time for you to start a position hey much more made Monday including my St with J Bill oh my God what a stock that is after it hit a new all-time high last month then what should you make of the valuation some of these decade standout IPOs I'm breaking down the perspective the retail measure and Order calls rapid fire tonight's add for lightning R so stay with C
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