저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 금·은 등 귀금속 가격이 향후 큰 상승장을 맞을 것이며, 달러는 약세로 금 대비 및 타 법정화폐 대비 하락한다고 주장. 연준 정책 비판: 연준은 금리 정상화와 대차대조표 축소가 불가능하며, 2018년 이후 금리 인하·QE 재개로 결국 제로금리와 QE4(무한 QE)로 돌아갔다고 주장. 인플레이션과 달러: 부채 확대로 연준이 금리를 올리지 못하므로 인플레이션에 굴복하고 달러가 희생될 것. 정부가 재정적자를 대부분 인플레이션(화폐 발행)으로 충당하고 있다고 비판. 연방정부 세입은 지출의 40% 수준이며 나머지는 연준 발행 자금이라고 언급. 금본위 회귀 전망: 세계가 달러본위제를 거부하고 금본위로 회귀할 것이며, 중앙은행들이 금을 대량 매입해 금 가격이 2천 달러를 훨씬 넘어 상승할 것. 연기금·기금 등 기관도 금을 5~10% 배분할 것이라 전망. 금광주: 금·은 광산주는 과거 대비 크게 하락한 상태로 저평가되어 있으며, 현재는 10년 바닥을 다진 후 상승 초기 단계라고 주장. 향후 닷컴 버블式 광산주 버블이 올 수 있다고 언급. 엔듀어(Endeavour) 등 광산주 언급. 리스크: 연준이 옳은 방향으로 행동하지 않고 계속 돈을 찍으면 결국 화폐가 가치를 잃는다는 시나리오 제시. 부채 버블이 터지면 결과가 더 심각할 것이라 언급. 출연자 전망: 금·은 및 광산주 강세, 달러 약세, 연준의 긴축 불가 지속.
다듬은 글
all right so uh i want to welcome everybody to this event and uh appreciate uh the opportunity to speak with everybody know i've been a long-term uh shareholder of endeavor uh going way back and uh i'm looking forward to much better days you know not just for uh endeavor but for the whole sector the mining sector because i'm really looking forward to or forecasting the biggest rise in the price of precious metals which would include you know gold and silver really that we've seen i think this is going to be the biggest bull market since the bull market of the 1970s now you know we had a pretty good bull market from around 2001 to 2011 where gold rose from the floor uh the bottom of a 20-year bear market where gold was under 300 and we saw a rise up to 1900 but that really just ended the prior bear market right that bear market began in 1980 when gold was around 800 850 in 1980 and then was still below 300 20 years later despite the fact that the price of everything else went up when you had 20 years of the cpi going up and stock prices going up and you had this huge decline in both gold and silver remember silver got to over 50 or about 50 when the hunt brought us we're trying to corner the market in 1980 and it was like four bucks or so uh in 2000 so a spectacular uh silver bear market so we got the relief rally in fact silver actually got all the way back up to 50 uh in 2011 but of course 50 in 2011 didn't buy nearly as much as 50 did back in 1980 so you know adjusted for uh prices uh it's a shadow of its its former high but nominally we got back up there but so we ended that bear market we had this big rally that rally uh peaked out in 2011 and the reason that we saw the peak was because the the federal reserve was able to convince the world that it could do the impossible right that it could actually normalize interest rates after having kept them at zero for many many years and it could shrink its balance sheet back down to normal after blowing it up to four and a half trillion now i knew that that was impossible i was warning anybody who would listen back then that the fed could not do what it claimed it was going to do that it was all uh bark and no bite it was a big bluff and you know the fed bluffed about raising rates for a long time before it finally nudged them up from zero to 25 basis points and it took a long time before they start started to gradually shrink the balance sheet but as i said from the beginning i said if the fed ever tried to normalize interest rates it would fail if it ever uh took the first step on the journey of uh shrinking its balance sheet that the jury would never be complete the journey would not be completed uh that the fed would have to do in about phase uh and i predicted uh that qe4 would be bigger than qe one two and three combined and i predicted that the fed would be back at zero and that's exactly where we are the fed reversed course on rates in the fall of 2018 uh when the market started to implode because rates had been moved up back to two and a half percent and that was too much for a overly indebted uh bubble economy to bear see that's the problem when the fed creates their phony recovery by levering everybody else with debt they can't remove uh the debt it's like you you can't uh you know prop the economy up and then remove the prop right one of the jokes i used to tell back when i was doing conferences is i said you know the fed isn't just promising to do a difficult trick like pulling a tablecloth out from under a the dishes and having the dishes stay on the table what the fed is saying it can do is pull the table out from under the cloth and the the cloth and the dishes are gonna stay suspended in mid-air it's impossible to do that trick well it's impossible to get everybody all levered up and then raise rates they can't afford it and so the market started to implode and the fed did exactly what i said they were going to do they started cutting rates they went back to qe they didn't admit it was qe they said it was not qe but it was qe because it was a distinction without a difference that the repo market blew up and so the fed had to step in and print money and buy up uh that paper to keep interest rates artificially suppressed because the market rate was too high for everybody to afford because we have too much debt but then when kovac came then you know we went straight to zero the fed you know didn't pass go went right to zero on interest rates and qe4 is now already bigger than one two and three combined and we're just getting started right this is qe infinity the fed is now saying it's not even thinking about thinking about thinking about raising interest rates so there is no way anybody in the world is going to believe the fed if it even tries to bluff that it's going to raise rates one day or that it's going to shrink its balance sheet so that is what saved the dollar and put a short-term top on gold well we've now built a huge bottom in gold over the last decade and we're about to explode higher and the dollar is about to get killed not only against gold but against all the other world's fiat currencies and there's nothing that's going to stop it because unlike 1980 when that bull market stopped with 800 gold interest rates were allowed to go to 20 percent to pro to stop that they can't even go to two percent now we already proved that two percent is too high how are we going to go to 20.
so the fed is never going to be able to allow rates to rise because of all the debt that it enabled everybody to accumulate by keeping them so low for so long so fighting inflation is off the table the fed has to surrender to inflation inflation wins it's a knockout and it's the dollar that gets knocked out the dollar was crashing back in the 70s uh and you know it greens i mean uh volker saved it uh but powell or whoever replaces him if we you know post powell isn't even gonna try the dollar is what gets sacrificed to try to prop everything else up the only way to prop up the stock market bubble the real estate bubble the bond bubble is to sacrifice the dollar keep printing and printing and printing and that attitude has never been you know more on display than it is right now with covet 19.
because the us government has basically said nobody has to work nobody has to go to the offices nobody has to actually earn a paycheck we'll just send you the money the fed will just print up money and just replace everything that you're no longer earning right we don't have to we don't have to work and produce we'll just consume and we'll just print money and give it to everybody and you just stay at home and buy stuff that's the economy we have now and we're running four trillion dollar deficits the government is talking about cutting taxes as it's increasing government spending and so what's actually happening is the government has decided that it's going to fund itself mostly through inflation in fact right now if you look at how much money the government is spending the federal government the federal government is only collecting 40 cents out of every dollar it spends so 60 cents is coming from the fed right 50 more money is being printed and spent then taxed and spent and the problem is the public doesn't realize what this costs they don't realize that inflation is a tax so they just want more free government give us more and more everybody wants more free stuff and and so that's what the politicians are selling this bill of goods and the world is going to have to look at this situation and like we can't take this no moss we're out of here we can't subsidize this i mean we've already subsidized these debts uh to the extent that the u.s national debt is uh what 27 trillion or whatever it is we can't take it to 30 trillion or 40 trillion the fed's got a uh you know seven trillion dollar balance sheet we can't let it go to 10 or 20 trillion i mean that the world can't afford to underwrite this degree of proficiency i mean they should have cut us off a long time ago but they got trapped in the the dynamic of you know throwing good money after bad and being afraid of the dollar crashing and them losing the value of the dollars they have but but in order to prevent the dollar from crashing they have to keep on buying more so in the end they end up with a bigger loss because they have more dollars when when the bottom drops out so what's about to happen is the world is going to reject the dollar standard and go back to the gold standard that's where we're headed gold beats all these fiat currencies hands down and so gold was the reserve before the dollar and it will be the reserve after the dollar that's the only monetary system that works right it imposes discipline on governments keeps them honest prevents asset bubbles and it facilitates trade because you have stability in exchange rates so that's where we're going so how do we get back to a gold standard from a dollar standard well central banks need to buy a lot more gold that's what's going to happen and the price of gold is going to have to go a lot higher that's it you can't go back on a gold standard with two thousand dollar gold maybe twenty thousand dollar gold but not two thousand dollar gold now you could go on a gold standard with twenty thousand dollar gold if you let the price of everything else go down by ninety 90 but that's probably not going to happen i mean the political realities to have that kind of deflation it's just not going to happen so rather than collapsing the price of everything else they just let the price of gold go up and that's what happens so if you get all these central banks that have very little gold that now have to come and buy gold the price goes up now they don't have to buy as much because the price is higher and now the value of their gold reserves goes up but it's not just going to be central banks that are going to be buying gold gold is going to be bought by institutions pension funds endowments everybody is going to have an allocation to gold in their portfolios 5 10 it's going to be commonplace now when you have everybody in the investment world trying to have an allocation to gold mining stocks or silver mining stocks even a small allocation you're talking about all these whales coming into a tiny little pond of stocks the prices are just going to go ballistic so not only are the prices of the underlying commodity going to go way up but the the mining stocks the premiums that they're going to trade at because the whole sector is going to be in demand i mean one of these days we are going to have a dot-com style bubble in the mining stocks it's going to happen we're not even close to that we are still in the ground floor we've just finished building this 10-year base and we're getting ready for the next more powerful leg up in this market and the great thing about the valuations you look at these gold and silver stocks oh look at endeavor what is endeavor four dollars uh something like that the vast majority of the mining companies are a fraction of where they were uh ten years ago or seven years ago uh and and you know so we're still in the infancy of this market because not only are these mining stocks not priced to reflect all of the gains that gold and silver are going to have in the future they're not even priced to reflect the gains that they've already had in the past because speculators don't believe those those gains are are going to endure they're expecting the prices to go down and they've already priced those expectations in a lot of these stocks so there's so many ways the crowd is going to get this wrong and that's how you make a lot of money betting against the crowd well the consensus today is that the central bankers know what they're doing that they got the situation under control that the dollar is sound they're completely wrong right this is a much bigger bubble uh than the dot-com bubble or the the the housing bubble and i think betting against this bubble is going to be a lot more profitable than was betting against the housing bubble but the best way to bet against this bubble is to bet on the gold and silver mining stocks the real way to bet against this bubble is with gold and silver and to make a bigger bet you get into the mining stocks and you know a lot of people say don't fight the fed i agree i'm betting on the fed that's why i'm buying gold and silver mining stops i'm betting the fed is not going to do the right thing it's going to continue to do the wrong thing there is no precedent since paul volcker of the fed ever doing anything right everything that's been done since greenspan has been wrong and i bet that train is going to continue right and that's why i'm i'm owning gold and silver and these mining stocks because i don't think they have the courage to do the right thing and the longer they wait to do the right thing the harder doing the right thing becomes because it's a bigger bubble and the consequences are more severe when it pops so i'm i'm betting right there with the fed i know that they're going to keep printing money whenever the stock market drops print money or lower interest rates print money lower rates whatever uh that's what they're going to do and they're gonna keep printing money until it has no value and then what will it's gold and silver that's real money and as i said buy these stock and by the way in case anybody is interested i am a broker i do have a broker dealer asset management company if anybody's interested in buying some shares of endeavor happy to work that order for you actually we trade all around the world uh so we can get you into the australian market canadian market any place there's a gold stock that we like we can help you access it so you can contact me at your pacific capital this i got the back truck up here from my asset management company europe civic asset management that's a your pacificfunds.com is the website for that and i we trade with a lot of international uh clients through my asset management company and so yeah if you do if you have a portfolio and you'd like somebody who knows mining and mining stocks it's a very specialized industry i've got adrian day if you haven't heard of him he's been uh in the industry for 30 40 years got the best track record in the business uh and then you know yeah follow me on social media you know i'm doing a lot my podcast on shiftradio.com if you're not familiar with me uh you can also follow me on youtube on the shift report and i'm on twitter instagram facebook peter schiff so make sure to to follow what i have to say and you know i'm constantly talking about the financial news and the economy and i'm giving out information that you're not going to get in the mainstream either they don't know it or if they know it they're too afraid to speak it you
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