Growth scare and economic slowdown 'mostly priced in', says Allianz' Mohamed El-Erian

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주식 반등이 이어지나 관세·경기둔화 공포는 대부분 선반영됐다고 봄. 이번 조정은 2차대전 이후 다섯 번째로 빠른 조정이며, 1차는 성장 공포, 2차는 기술적 매도(고밀도 포지션 청산). 최악의 기술적 요인은 지나갔다고 평가. 핵심 변수는 성장 공포의 억제 여부와 연준 금리인하 기대(시장은 2회 인하 기대). 설문 데이터는 약한 활동과 높은 인플레를 동시에 시사해 스태그플레이션은 '실제가 아닌 기미(whiff)' 수준. 성장률 1%가 스톨 스피드, OECD가 미국 2026년 성장률을 1.6%로 하향. 미국은 구조적 우위가 여전히 크며 유럽 과열 기대에 경계, 중국은 정체.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Well, stocks rallied for a second consecutive day as investors try to shake off fears of tariffs and an economic slowdown. Joining us now is Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz. Mohamed, always good to see you. So, consumer sentiment quickly deteriorating, growth forecasts you predict will be revised downward over the next few weeks.

02. Is that going to make this stock rebound hard to sustain or do you think maybe it's priced in? So, I think it's mostly priced in, John, and thanks for having me. You know, we had two distinct stages to what was the fifth fastest correction since World War II. The first one was a good old growth scare.

03. Then we had pretty nasty technicals with fast money in particular getting out of very crowded positions. Most of the bad technicals are behind us. So, the two questions going forward is will the growth scare be contained and will the hope in the Fed put prove realistic or not? Hm. So, how important is the Fed on Wednesday to this rally?

04. Any sense we can get from the dot plot or elsewhere of how likely they are to factor tariff effects into their willingness to cut? So, it's pretty tricky because I've also got to deal with the inflation concerns. You know, the survey data, and this is soft data, John. I want to stress this is soft data.

05. But the survey data points both to weak activity and high inflation. And it's that second element that I suspect the Fed will worry about a lot. So, you know, the hope is they keep that two cuts. Um they don't go to one. That That's where the market is. The market's hoping for two right now. Um and the market's going to be looking very carefully at the language they use to describe the price dynamics.

06. Mohamed, we've seen consumer confidence fall. We've seen inflation expectations rise. I Is the risk of stagflation real here or given some of the readings we've gotten recently on inflation and given the fact that the tariff situation continues to evolve and change, and we know it's only one piece of a bigger puzzle that's also going to include tax policy reform and deregulation among other things, is that risk overblown?

07. So, Morgan, I call it a whiff of stagflation. It's not real stagflation. It's a whiff of stagflation because of exactly what you mentioned. So, what should we worry about? Anything that takes growth down near 1%. For me, 1% is stall speed. And if we get near stall speed, that will be of concern. So, look at the household sector.

08. Hopefully, they will have some confidence in their income stream because that's the only thing keeping them going right now. And businesses have to contain their wait-and-see attitude. The inflation side is more tricky because we we are seeing a significant surge in inflation expectations. These are big big jumps that have occurred over the last few weeks.

09. So, that one is trickier because can you really get that inflation if the economy softens? That's a big question mark. Hm. OECD forecast out today basically saying Trump's tariff hikes are going to drag down growth in Canada, Mexico, the US, drive up inflation. The OECD is cutting its global economic outlook.

10. It's warning of a broader trade war here given the dynamics we're seeing as well. We've been having a lot of conversations about the fact that the dollar's been weakening against other major currencies. Crude oil has come off. Yields have been under pressure here. Do you invest in the US or do you invest elsewhere right now and why?

11. So, based on the OECD, I thought the most surprising thing about the OECD is what it did to US growth projection to of next year. So, it didn't surprise me they'd use this year, but they really took down next year to 1.6%. That is a surprise to me. That they're not saying this is just a bumpy journey.

12. They're saying, you know what, this journey's going to be quite long. And other people haven't gone there yet. That's what I found surprising. Look, yeah, I mean, the US retains its advantages. There's a big debate going on, which is at the end of all this, those tariffs, and the deregulation, at the end of all this, are we going to sharpen our edge or we going to erode our edge?

13. And the jury is 50/50 on this. But there's no doubt that right now we still have significant structural advantage. I think that people are getting carried away about Europe. And China is still stuck in this muddled middle. So, the US may not be as pristine as it was earlier in terms of an investment thesis, but it still dominates in my mind the others.