저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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시장 조정(correction)은 트럼프 행정부의 관세 정책 불확실성이 원인이라고 진단. 베센트 장관의 '조정은 건강하다' 주장에 반박하며, 불규칙한 관세 발표가 경기침체 위험을 키운다고 주장. 관세 방향 자체(무역 불균형 시정)에는 동의하나 일관성과 예측가능성이 필요하다고 봄. 불확실성이 걷히면 조정은 끝날 것이라는 낙관적 견해 제시.
다듬은 글
a special San Francisco edition of bit of money my job is not just entertain but then and teach to so call me at 18743 CC tweet me Cher the market actually wants to go higher on a day like today there are plenty of buyers who are either willing to look the other way on tffs or are simply getting used to the disturbances from Washington and that's why the Dow rallied 353 points SB gained 64% NASDAQ Advanced 31% this was the day where we got the president Trump we expect it we had so many groups flying that it was tough to even come up with names or themes of to say businesses under thr that were under Trump one did well today I don't know I I don't want to stick my neck out declare that the correction is over but it's worth delving to the possibility that maybe the businesses that went up today are ones that can Thrive under Trump to first let's establish what we've been through a correction that's what we've been through it's technical term meaning a drop of more than 10% which is what we had in the S&P 500 as of last Thursday a peak the trough drop from a month ago then St was in correction mode long before that so why not call the bottom because I'm worried about something the treasury secretary Besson said yesterday or Meet the Press first Besson told us that Corrections are healthy all right that's simply not true if you own stocks if you got your retirement money in the SB and it drops 10% that feels incredibly unhealthy not just for you but for the entire economy because people tend to spend less money when their wealth vanishes overnight Corrections are unhealthy if you are worried about tipping into recession and most business people I talk to are worried about that then best when on to say that he knows from being in the investment business for 35 years that Corrections not only healthy but they're normal uh what's not healthy tells us is quote straight up that you get these euphoric markets that's how you get a financial crisis and quote interesting perspective goes want to say quote it would have been much healthier if someone had put the brakes on in ' 0607 we wouldn't have had the problems in 08 end quote I kind of like that but let me parse this with an understanding that I've been in the business 45 years and as much as I would like to say that makes me better more seasoned smarter I'm not going to do that sticking around for a long time simply doesn't give you the expertise that you might think it should for example when best in say cors are healthy and normal he's talking like all Corrections are are the same that couldn't be further from the truth most Corrections are not like the one that we have for the last few weeks you can get a correction because the FED changes stance the market got too exuberant forign problems have been exported to our Shores stuff like that but that's not what we're talking about here he knows that not at all right now people are worried about a recession that's caused by the president of the United States it's a correction that has nothing to do with the federal government's transition to a more prudent spending philosophy we Americans want that is we are worried about the government borrowing more than they could afford we for our kids for our grandkids who are going to have to pay for the federal government's propy Instead This Sol had everything to do with a lack of consistency and a lack of certainty something that should be obvious to Mr B for 35 years in the business as it is for me after 45 years in the business if president Trump had cooly and calmly laid out a strategy for evening the scales with our trading partners I think you gotten a lot of buy it we're the only country Place feral trade that cost us countless jobs over the years foreign countries subsidize all sorts of our product of our their products and then they dump on our markets and Cut Rate prices China's the king is still hardly alone them the numbers speak for themselves for decades our government let it happen because these countries were sending us lots of cheap stuff and who doesn't light used up but if you get to the point where Germany South Korea Japan have saturated our Auto markets more than 50% of our vehicles are imported for heaven stake no this is not right no other developed Nation simply gives away their markets like that's INF fury it's awful it must be stopped so I think Trump's core thesis is right our trading partners have taken advantage of our country for decades and it's worth trying to set that right but it's very big up but Trump's approach has been way too erratic it's terrified both the stock market and the broader economy not not just the stock market the broader economy most of the substantive tariff news comes in the form of postings on true social they come fast and furious they're incredibly important they're incredibly contradictory these posts involve hundreds of billions of dollars if not trillions of dollars and more importantly hundreds of thousands of jobs including yours the Mercurial postings the scatter shot approach trade policy is the approximate cause of the correction I asked you Mr secretary with 35 years of experience is that normal is that healthy I don't think so so what distinguishes today and Friday from the Hideous correction that perhaps mercifully ended Thursday very simple no postings in the absence of posts we see the natural Incarnation the market which to go higher the president Trump from his first term would I think not call correction healthy especially one that he had a hand in clausing because he didn't believe what he did should hurt the stock market stock market matters as a bellweather for the country not just as a wealth creator you can gauge the country's mood from the market and as th as of Thursday it was correcting itself from a positive attitude to a negative one from an exuberant one to a solemn one and that's how you get a recession a transition is only painful if you choose to make it painful today and Friday made me think that the president recognized that teaching our so-called trading partners a lesson and having small medium-sized businesses do well because customers aren't scared to death are not mutually exclusive after all what's good for America is good for American Business which is good for the stock market that was his philosophy in the first term I believed it I he taught us that what Wall Street thought we were getting this time too now it might be true that the old Trump created too much enthusiasm and that enthusiasm could have led to the euphoria that secretary Bron mentioned but man before Co hit he presided over a fantastic economy with great job growth no inflation and he did it lightly he did with a smile he was consistent in the optimism and his get it done attitude I miss that President Trump this new second term president Trump is angry lashes out especially on true social and his approach is so inconsistent that it frightens all sorts of business owners to the point where they don't know what to do they can't get their heads around this moly front trade work they thought they had a friend in the white house but suddenly it's like they have an enemy who seems upset and angry with them president expressed his Fury and all sorts of workers from all sorts of businesses many of them voted for them are worried about their jobs they don't want to spend their money because their retirement funds have taking a big hit who knows what'll happen next in this environment any sense that we might go back to Trump one can send stocks higher in a healthy way that's Friday that's today any uncertainty especially the kind of uncertainty that leads us to believe the president thinks it's necessary to see the market roll over sends us right back down to Thursday I want to believe that the president doesn't think this correction is normal and healthy especially if you had a hand of clause in it that's why I believe that today won't be just a brief interg but here's the bottom line there doesn't need to be a transition period of pain there only needs to be some sort of certainty to the process if we know what the president's planning ahead of time and stopping our allies from abusing us it makes much easier to make investing decisions for businesses and for you we get that and then the correction is over but without it demaret will have a hard time staying positive and we'll just be glad we had two days to catch our breath before the next Beatdown let's go to David in California David oh Jim booah this is David from California first off just want to say thank you so much for all you do for us Millennial investors been watching you for over 10 years you've been doing a great job thank you David you know I'm trying to lighten things up but I I want people to understand what's going on with their money it I just have to and I thank you for calling in and saying that yeah of course so the stock that I'm calling about is a brokerage firm that I've been using almost every day and I purchased it during its IPO it peaked during covid but then since then it's it's dropped quite a few however as of late in the last in 2024 it's gone up again but it's since then Fallen 30% since it's all-time highs so okay I'm calling to see if I should continue holding on to Robin Hood no you should be buying more Robin Hood I think that Vlad tenv has totally gotten it together I think that he has smok in the rest of the industry I like his new predictions thing he just started you've got a winner get bigger and thank you for the nice words let's go to Brock in North Carolina Brock hey Jim thanks for having me no Brock no problem hey I yeah I wanted to I wanted to ask about Walgreens um it it took a beating uh looks like it's it's coming back a little bit I is this a are they going to be a Right Aid type roock it's over no it's over they've got a deal that got a terrific deal with uh with Sycamore uh just Mr wwor gave you the best he could and uh I would just take the what your position you have off the table and go by um Costco which I think is not going to need any help whatsoever let's go to Drew in Idaho Drew Boo Yah from the beautiful state of Idaho how are you now rub it in just rub it in I'm from an amazing State called New Jersey it's just incredible we have like a mountain that's like a th000 feet high we drink Mescal up here too oh then uh that's that tastes like coming home yeah you you you need to come up but uh I'm an I'm an OG investment Club member and thank you and my question is my question's kind of sort of about Texas Roadhouse which you bought for the investing Club but it's more about did you take a look at a at a turnaround stock like Cracker Barrel and if you did how do you and Jeff kind of weigh those two stocks to pick one over the other very hard because Julie MSO we've had her on the show she is just crushing a Cracker Barrel crushing it Texas Road Out Mr morg is doing a good job now I know the stock doesn't act well and I get that we're going to keep building the position as it goes down because they have a long-term history and I can't believe the price turnings mulle is as low as it is but you've got two winners there and I thank you and yes if they have Mescal Idaho give me a one-way ticket there if we could just get more certainty and look I'm trying to be positive over here cuz I want the market to stay positive but I got to like generate some Mojo all right we get certainty the correction is over and you know I don't like if that's the new normal I don't like normal and if that's healthy I'd rather be uh well whatever oh man M tonight I'm kicking off my week out west with a fintech player block I've got the CFO to see if recent announcements could help help the company stop get higher than Papa John's cooking up growth in the consumer sentiment what are you thinking in this environment maybe it works I'm getting get a look at the company's rescue for success and with tax season in full swing we got to talk to intu CEO seal Turbo Tax and Credit Karma doing you MailChimp State C
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