저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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관세 불확실성과 백악관 발언이 시장 공포를 키우고 있으며, 소비심리 악화로 다음 주 소매판매 부진이 예상된다. 엔비디아 GTC 행사와 마이크론 등 반도체 실적에 긍정적 의견을 내고, FedEx·Nike 등에 대한 매수 관점을 제시했다. 시장은 백악관과 연준에 좌우되는 '인질' 상황이라고 진단했다.
다듬은 글
. Yeah, tell , it's put it all in perspective for you. So, call me at 1-800-783-3233. Tweet me at Jim Cramer. What a counter-trend day. We get a day free of presidential posts, glory be, and the market just roars. Dow gaining 675 points, S&P climbing 2.13%. House of pain. Nasdaq pulling up only 2.61%.
So, before we get into the game plan for next week, I want to remind you that at any moment the president can wreak havoc on anything I have to say with gratuitous posts, reminding people there's more pain ahead. I've made it clear that I think many of the president's posts are gratuitous. The house of the house of pain.
We're all aware of this trade war. The house of pain. We don't need to be told here comes pain. of pain. Right now, people are scared. We saw a shocking decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey this morning. People fear inflation and worry about their savings, which happens to be in many cases the stock market.
They don't know what tariffs mean and they haven't had them explained to them in any satisfactory factory way. So, they figure the tariffs are yet another thing that raises prices in the supermarket and that's probably true. I know the president and his crew have chosen not to focus on the stock market because they don't want to be have it be a referendum on themselves.
I agree with that, but it won't be. It'll be a the voice of the people and what they're worried about. Think of the market as a gauge of hope versus despair. The results lately demonstrate despair, even if today we finally got a solid session. The cause and effect are so palpable that you don't need me to tell you how these gains came about, do you?
All right, we're going to have another referendum on the consumer and it's going to come as soon as Monday when we get February retail sales numbers. I think the consumers pulled back hard because they I think the consumer fears their jobs. They want to know if they're next. It's unavoidable. The president's ability to create a climate of hope or climate of fear.
And lately Trump's gone all in on fear. It's a shame and it'll be reflected in what I would I'm sad to say will be some dismal retail sales numbers. On Tuesday, we're going all happiness. We're going to San Jose, California to GTC, the All Things Generative AI conference run by Nvidia, you all my favorite company.
The event known as the Woodstock of AI is a week-long affair and we'll be there for the crucial events on Tuesday and Wednesday, including Jensen Huang's what I think is going to be an amazing keynote address on Tuesday. Hey, speaking as someone who missed the original Woodstock, I'm not going to miss this Woodstock and to me this is Woodstock.
Look at these companies. Look at how great these companies are. These are unabashedly positive companies that create that create wealth, that put food on the table, that give people jobs. This is what I celebrate. Also on Tuesday, we get February housing numbers. We need these to get stronger because we can't slip into a recession, that'd be terrible.
Any kind of slowdown is quickly reflected in housing, which then gets reflected in retail. It's a delicate chain that starts with housing, which is why I'll be watching these numbers like a hawk. Now, let's talk about something disconcerting. Home prices are too high. We all know that lumber is a big part of the cost of a house and we get a huge percentage of our lumber, sadly, okay, from Canada.
Right now, the president's furious with Canada. They're pretty furious about all that 51st state rhetoric. What if Trump doubles down on tariffs and decides next week to slap a huge duty on Canadian lumber? Hey, 200%. It could be devastating for both of us, both you know, Canada, but certainly us. Now, I don't know if he'll go there.
But, it certainly makes sense that he would given what he's been doing. Just the right time to teach us a lesson, right? No cheap housing for you. Wednesday is super important. That's when the Fed Open Market Committee meets and they break up and then we hear what Jay Powell has to say, the Fed chief.
The last two numbers of inflation are actually pretty good, the CPI and the PPI. So, maybe we're okay. In general though, there are whole categories where high prices are truly sticky, categories like rent, some food, entertainment. The Fed might talk about a weak in consumer, but I don't think they'll do anything about it.
They might give the president a chance to lash out and blame Jay Powell for not helping the economy. Powell's an obvious target and you better believe he'll be attacked by this administration. I hope this dedicated, wise public servant doesn't read postings on Truth Social about himself. Mr. Powell, spare yourself the pain.
I also need to be very mindful that there's still one more round of tariffs that I'm expecting, maybe as soon as next week. That'd be 25% tariffs on all imported autos, whether they be from Germany or Japan or South Korea. I don't know what the president's waiting for. Doesn't he believe that? These countries pay a tiny amount, usually a tenth of the 25% that the president's put on Canada and Mexico.
I'm sure President Trump doesn't like that and he'll probably post that he doesn't, maybe as soon as next week. I fear the president will choose Wednesday to lower the boom, so be prepared. Sure, the market's oversold and it may stay oversold by Wednesday, so it could possibly handle any auto-related tariff news, but you have to be ready for them.
They are coming and they won't be here in any measured way. Now, we've got some important corporate news Wednesday, too. First, General Mills reports and I wrote a piece this morning that predicted that they'd miss the numbers. I know Mills is in the crosshairs of the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Bobby Kennedy Jr., because there's artificially colored cereals make you want to eat stuff that's too sugary.
Plus, it makes some fattening foods that won't do well when people are continuing to adopt the GOP death on weight loss drugs with a vengeance. I don't expect a good number here and nobody else does, either. Thursday is abnormally huge. In the morning, we have Darden, the parent of Olive Garden. The restaurant cohort is still all over the map.
I see a lot to like about the ones that offer the customers a great value and that's why I'm betting we'll see good numbers from Darden. After the close, the big guns come on out. First, we get results from FedEx. The transports hit a new low yesterday and people are really fleeing this group. This may be our opportunity to buy a high-quality transport at a big discount as FedEx continues to cut costs.
I like that. I want to start a position here as I think CEO Raj Subramaniam is doing a remarkable job, fantastic. Then we got Micron. This very valuable chipmaker, one that's been very committed to the United States, more than any other major semiconductor play, received a $6.16 billion grant from the Biden administration as part of the CHIPS and Science Act.
Well, President Trump posted it's time for Micron to give the money back. It could definitely be a moment to rain on Micron's parade as I expect a decent quarter from these guys because the DRAM market's healthy and more important, their high-bandwidth memory product line is integral to the data center and it's on fire.
Should they be attacked for taking money that was offered to them? I think 99% of us would take it. Then there's Nike, uh which needs to officially say that it's back on track and ready to grow again. If management does, that $71 stock will see 80 very quickly. I regard Nike as a coiled spring, minimal downside, certainly worth doing.
One more, housing kingpin Lennar reports and and if I think if what I think is going to happen, lumber will be on the table. It will be discussed very negatively. Stuart Miller, the executive chairman, will speak to the question of affordable housing. She's been important in trying to make that happen as we saw earlier this week when CNBC focused on a Texas housing project that used 3D printing and concrete to build what looked like some fine homes by Lennar.
Finally, on Friday, we hear from Carnival, the cruise line. Cruise lines are flagged outside the US, which has made them the target of the Commerce Department. I wonder if Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick picks this day to lay into Carnival. If not, I think that the group's been strong, even as the stocks have been awful of late.
We know the business isn't weak and therefore Carnival stock could be ready to roll as long as it's not attacked by the administration. But, the bottom line, no matter what we hear from these companies next week, this market's hostage to the White House and the Federal Reserve and the latter can't post.
Unfair fight. Let's go to Jake in New York, please. Jake. Hey, Jim. Boo-ya. Boo-ya, Jake. How you doing? I'm okay. How are you? I'm okay. What's happening? Well, it's your anniversary. Congrats to you and the team. Thank you very much. We have a great team and I know it's kind of like my anniversary quarter, the way I'm looking at it now.
My anniversary quarter. Thank you. What's up? So, I'm confused with this one. I think it's at the point where management's going to end up owning this entire company. Um, I guess I'm rolling the dice on MGM Resorts International. You are rolling the dice on MGM Resorts International. I'm not a dice roller, I am a card player and I like it very much, but I I wouldn't want to own that one.
But, you know what? We're going to go out west. We're going to talk to Wynn. Maybe I can figure out a little bit more about what to do with the casinos, providing that the president doesn't post that you're not allowed to go to casinos anymore. Never know. Anyway, next week's earnings are important, but the market is only hostage to the White House and to a lesser degree, the Fed.
Tough place to be, particularly because the Fed can't post, but the White House can. Mad Money tonight, I've been thinking about where the market could have been if if the constant news of tariffs hadn't caused all this fear. Don't miss my take. Then today's rally showed that there's still opportunity to be found in this tape.
I'm rounding out my sell-off opportunity series with one more sector worth looking at and by the way, the others really did well, so you got to listen up. And as we navigate all this market volatility, I'm getting a better sense of where viewers' concerns lie. Taking some questions from the investment club members who didn't get to have their questions answered in yesterday's club meeting. ed something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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