저자: OracleInvestments · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가 급락은 머스크의 매도보다 연준 양적긴축에 따른 시장 유동성 감소가 주원인이라고 주장. 2023년이 장기 'generational wealth' 매수 기회이며 금리 인상도 2월 한 차례 후 정지될 것으로 봄. 테슬라는 무부채·현금 보유로 침체에 강하다고 평가. 제목상 TSLA 매수 권유 성격이나 단기 가격 방향은 명시적으로 예측하지 않음. 본인은 $140대에 추가 매수, 장기 관점 유지.
다듬은 글
hello oracles well I am extremely excited because Tesla Stock's generational wealth opportunity is upon us we have been talking about it all year long I've been dollar cost averaging all the way down some people give me crap because I'm catching a falling knife sure if I had known more about the macro environment I learned a lot this year I maybe have waited and maybe I would have waited and I would have gotten myself to a position now where I could have a lower cost basis I did not but because of the strategy that I had I also have a much lower cost basis than other people who did not do that strategy so not saying whether I am right or wrong I'm just saying I made the decision for myself based upon my own due diligence and research and I am happy with that decision and I have learned even more along the way that will help me in the future to Garner even more wealth so after having a discussion with Adam last night he really reinforced a lot of the thoughts that I had going on in my head about what is happening with Tesla stock in the moment right now so if you guys did not get to watch the live stream you can see it I have got the recording down in the description below definitely check it out Adam has a wealth of knowledge explaining what is going on in the near term so can you be bearish and bullish on Tesla stock at the same time you absolutely can and as a matter of fact if you are that is the kind of person who is going to be able to get the most wealth out of this if you are going to recognize the real true reasons as to why the stock price is coming down you will understand how the entire macro environment Cycle Works this macro environment cycle goes to fortunes being born during bear markets we are in that moment right now fortunes aren't born during times where Elon is selling his stock fortunes are born during bear markets that are involved with the entire macro environment that is now and Elon selling shares and causing some Twitter drama is just accentuating those opportunities so right now we have been seeing it kind of starting to be created all year long in 2022 but 2023 is really truly going to be the prime buying opportunities in my opinion not Financial advice but it's going to be the prime buying opportunities for us to be able to Garner that generational wealth for the future and so I'm going to quickly rehash some of what we had discussed last night and that is the Fed right now is quantitative tightening we saw the quantitative easing after we had covid where there was basically zero interest and money just flying around everywhere that is why the stock market had such a boom over the last two years well now we're in a position where the FED needs to clean up that mess in the process of cleaning up that mess they are removing money from the market there's less money in the market to be invested that is the number one main reason we have been seeing all of the entire Market coming down everybody's pointing fingers at Elon for selling and this and that for Tesla specific nonsense absolute nonsense we can say yes maybe it's pulled down a little bit more because of Elon but if you really take a step back take a real look at this and say all right my emotions are now completely removed from Elon and whatever he says and does what I agree and disagree with get rid of that crap get rid of it all look at the reality of the situation the company itself is still performing extremely well based upon the fundamentals that we have been seeing for the last decade that has not changed whatsoever you can talk about The Branding and this and that and people don't like it as much who Nanny it's crap we go into markets like this all Automotive makers are going to suffer everyone everybody's just trying to find a specific reason and nobody is looking at the bigger picture everybody's looking at a very specific reason for Tesla alone that is not the case people are gonna say well why is byd selling more last week with insured Vehicles dude take a bigger snapshot picture than one week look big picture big picture is 10 years take that snapshot that you're looking at right now one week one month one year look at it 10 years where we are going in the future this thing happens every 10 years we are literally getting a once in a 10 year opportunity to buy at these great prices so anything that Elon does that people are pointing at bringing sentiment down bringing the stock price lower is a great thing because that means we are going to be able to buy for even less think about the people out there that are buying right now chicken genius is buying whether you agree with them or disagree with them he called 140 guess what we hit 140.
the guy is very wealthy and very smart Kathy Wood from Arc they've been buying recently there's a lot of big institutional money BlackRock they've been coming in and buying do you think that these people aren't as smart as retail investors seriously retail investors are really relatively new think about the fact that over the last five to seven years we have had apps on our phones now for brokerages we've had free trading created over the last five to seven years none of these things existed during the last Big Bear Market that we had for the housing recession so there's a lot of investors out there right now who are now facing the first time long and prolonged bear Market people are not used to this they don't understand it and because they don't understand it they're trying to find as many reasons as they can as to why the stock is down and because they love Tesla stock so much they're trying to find Tesla stock specific reasons as to why that stock price is down it that is not it these people are very smart look at Giant companies that are out there right now people are cutting spending all over the place because they understand the economic times that we are about to go through right now Tesla has positioned themselves perfectly they have no debt they have a giant cash pile and they have a giant amount of cash flow coming in this is exactly what I've been talking about for us and your own wealth to get your portfolio through the next couple of years to really thrive all year long I've been saying that Tesla has positioned themselves to be the winner in the long term regardless of what goes on but if we go through a deep recession Tesla's going to do even better than everyone else because they have positioned themselves for that that is what you need to do for your own portfolio so if you have done that for your own portfolio you will be one who is going to thrive during these times when we come out of this you are going to be that one who is going to have that Fortune born because you prepared yourself during this bear Market giant companies are doing this Elon broke down for us on the Twitter space last night the financials for Twitter this is very important this is something I had been waiting on because it can really give us insight as to whether elon's going to sell more now Grant to Elon selling more again is just going to be near-term stuff and truly give us a better buying opportunity but at least to kind of understand the timing of when things may turn around he broke down that Twitter right now has one billion dollars in cash they are burning six billion dollars a year and they only have three billion dollars coming in he's been speaking with advertisers and he said they've all been very reasonable in their requests and it's really just they're asking what is the return on their investment going to be because going into times like this advertising is very difficult most people cut their advertising because people aren't out there spending money so why are these companies going to advertise when consumers are not spending as much money as it is does not make a lot of sense when you're in a booming economy time advertise all you want because people are out there willing to spend money but going to these times right now that money flow is going to come down when it comes to Consumers so putting out advertising Revenue these advertisers are asking well how are you going to give us a better return on our investment than advertising somewhere else so Elon has been working with all of them he said this is exactly the reason why he has spent the last five weeks over at Twitter cutting costs extensively because in order to get through these tough times you've got to cut costs same thing we are going to be doing with our own finances over the next year trying to really take advantage of these markets as many costs as we possibly can to be able to invest more in the future of our own personal business which I was our own portfolio and finance so Elon is doing this with Twitter and he does see and said that he's confident that instead of having a negative three billion dollar cash flow at the end of next year he feels that they'll be able to be cash flow break even at the end of next year this is huge because for people who are concerned about whether he has to sell any more or not you know he sold a good chunk you know we know that he was trying to get out of his margin loans or avoid going into margin loans so this now tells me that if they're going to be break even at the end of next year Elon selling May either be done or be minimal over the course of 2023 just so that they can get through this a lot of things that need to play out still so people are asking where the bottom is going to be don't know for sure there's still a lot of macro factors at play right now that could end at any moment so you know we've got the war in Ukraine that's going on we've got the FED obviously raising interest rates we've got this recession that we're potentially getting into so all of these different factors that are in play right now we just don't know timing of it looking at the FED alone seems like based upon the information that they have given us we could be seeing probably one more interest rate hike in February and then a pause after that so as far as the quantitative tightening goes when it comes to the FED interest rates that could be coming to an end in the next couple of months that could bring a little more stability back to the market but when we are looking at numbers specifically numbers aren't driven by emotion unless it is the overreaction to what is going on with the numbers that is usually driven by retail investors that is what Market manipulators use to drive stock prices up and down even further when it comes to institutional money these people are not looking at emotions they're not looking at oh what is Elon selling now what is this a net if they are looking at it they're just looking at it from a strict number standpoint saying well if Elon is going to sell more shares the stock price will come down more we are going to wait until he's done but because they don't know this is why we have been seeing some institutional money start to come in in a dollar cost average manner because we might be near the bottom but they're not sure so they're starting to put little bits of money in this is why Kathy Wood and Arc are doing it this is why chicken genius is doing it I've been doing it all year long and I'm still learning and now I'm understanding more about it which is why I'm being more why eyes with it so yesterday I put in 25 of my extra cash at 140.
so I know I said I was going to be doing 50 but I'm just kind of paying attention right now you know we've got the Q4 numbers that are going to be coming out I think we're going to do fine but just knowing how the market has been reacting all year I think I'm going to be holding that extra 25 cash and waiting for that if we pop afterwards shame on me I missed it not a big deal I do still think that we do see some pain and plenty of buying opportunities for at least the next 12 to 18 months this is a good thing this is exactly what we have been wanting this is the time that we can buy and really Garner generational wealth think about it we did a 10x in about a year and a half do you really think that we were going to do another 10x after that and not only that but buying in at those higher prices how much for somebody who's a little guy like myself how much could I really bought in at those prices to really get a 10x you know I could put in a little bit and a 10x on that little bit was going to be nice but not what I really wanted now I have that opportunity I have this opportunity to buy at these lower prices and getting a 10x again on my return and a shorter period of time is much more realistic and looking out that 10 years I can just build that wealth and multiply my money that much more over the next 10 years the lower the stock price goes because my long-term Horizon and my long-term thesis on Tesla stock have not changed they are still extremely strong and so the lower the stock price goes the better return I'm going to get on my investment now I'm not rooting for it to come down I'm not going to short the stock that's not the game that I play but if it is going to come down further I'm just going to take even more advantage of those prices to be able to bring my cost basis down my cost basis now is down to 245 I am bringing it down even more or every time I buy at these levels because we keep coming down I would love to get it under two hundred dollars we'll see if I get that opportunity my goal right now is not to come up with a specific number people asking me where I think the bottom is going to be I don't know I don't play that game I set myself up right now with a strategy to continue to lower my cost basis so that this way with my dollar cost to averaging I will get near the bottom that is my only goal get near the bottom to really give myself the best opportunity for a better return on my investment in the future we are seeing this opportunity now to be able to do that and so hearing about people out there that are shorting the s p the s p may come down to 3 500 this is a number that Adam was discussing last night based upon the charts that he sees so if we come down to 3 500 that means Tesla could be coming down even further but again we're kind of in this unknown area right now where we're starting to kind of we're coming down but not as fast as we were before so if you guys saw it on the charts and I'll go over it later again you know we saw the dead cat bounce coming down for Tesla but it's kind of not as Steep and it's starting to kind of flatten out so almost like we're starting to come to that bottom so we're going to pay attention to that because we may still have a little further down to go but again when we're starting to see big money dollar cost averaging in this is why we're starting to balance off people who are shorting and people who are buying back in which is causing that balance to come up so again timing that bottom nearly impossible what that number is going to be we won't know until after we've already hit it but just seeing the way we're trending seems like we're starting to go in that direction a lot of things than a lot of factors in place still but these are the opportunities so people who are so frustrated emotionally in the moment as to what's going on and pointing fingers please take your emotions out and look at the broader picture and the fact that you're disgust right now with the stock price should truly be excitement for this opportunity to buy more nobody knows what's going to happen in the future we may have something massive come in and as Adam and I talked something that's highly unprobable somebody comes out and says you know what EVs we're going to regulate them they're now illegal that is a massive fundamental shift of all right selling Tesla stock no good to me anymore but Elon selling shares Elon coming out and doing what he's doing on Twitter do not have anything to do with what is fundamentally going on with the company in the long term it's merely near-term noise that is being utilized by market manipulators to really cause this overreaction in the stock price because they're shorting it people are shorting the s p people are shorting lots of stocks right now so the further they can pull it down in the meantime the more money they can make guess what they're going to do as they've made money pulling it down they're going to take all the money that they made from shorting the stock they're going to put it back into the stock and drive that stock price back up again don't forget institutional money still has yet to really come in Tesla is only investment grade rating from the s p right now we are still awaiting Moody's the timing of this year is going to be perfect elon's going to say that Twitter is going to be solvent by the end of the year we have the interest rates in the US that are going to flatten maybe pivot by the end of the year I'm not banking on that one but we are going to be seeing the interest rates staying steady over the course of the year so they're not going to be going up anymore which means that we are going to have opportunities where big money is going to be coming into the stock more and more over the course of 2023.
whether that means the stock price is actually going to go up or not really depends on the timing of all of it but again timing is nearly impossible so this is why getting that cash flow generation coming in to be able to put what you can into the stock wisely with a dollar cost average basis sort of like what these institutions are doing are what are going to get you the most wealth in the future companies are giant companies for a reason they are very smart with their money and they're great with business so take a look at these companies who are doing what they're doing probably a wise thing to do the same thing for your own portfolio and finances if they're cutting spending cut spending if they're stockpiling cash stockpile cash if they're slowly dollar cost averaging into the market slowly dollar cost average into the market really isn't that hard to do and it's just a matter of not using your emotions when you are looking at what is going on in your portfolio you see what other people are doing successful people are doing this thing do that thing it's really not that difficult and that's really what it comes down to is just not being emotionally driven with your finances so I hope this was helpful for everyone today I know it was kind of emotionally driven but I'm extremely excited about this opportunity because I was not investing during the housing crisis I look back and I was like I wish I was investing back then but I wasn't now I'm getting that opportunity and I really want to be able to share with you guys the fact that this truly is an opportunity to be able to Garner wealth for the future and it's not so much a place where you're going to be mad at yourself it really this is the opportunity and I really want to make sure that you guys are aware that this is the time right now where your fortune can be born so let me know your thoughts in the comments below how do you feel about what's going on in the macro look out 10 years what do you think is going to be happening with the entire economy with Tesla stock in particular what do you think you're going to see over the next 10 years and do you think that the noise that is going on right now is truly going to affect the stock and the company 10 years down the road thank you all so I am over on Twitter at Oracle temp one I share information and all of my daily trades we do have a Discord chat that link is down in the description and if you'd like to support the channel any further we do have a membership program and a patreon those links are also in the description thank you so much have a great one foreign
댓글 0