저자: OracleInvestments채널진행자 · 외국인
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테슬라가 호주에서 모델3로 토요타 캠리를 제치고 판매 1위를 차지했고, 토요타는 중국에서도 판매가 줄었다고 주장. 레거시 자동차사 대비 테슬라의 성장률(약 40%) 대비 PE가 낮아 괴리가 크다고 보고, 2023년을 DCA(분할매수) 적기로 제시. 금리는 2023년 3월경 인플레이션 아래로 내려갈 가능성을 언급하며 연준 정책 전환 가능성을 논함.
다듬은 글
hello oracles we've got Tesla taking the number one spot in sales in this country and they're taking it away from this Legacy giant so which country is this Which Giant is this we are seeing Tesla growing and Legacy shrinking we'll find out in a minute all right so taking a look at the number one spot that Tesla is taking over it is in Australia the model 3 took the top Sales spot over in Australia and they took it away from the Toyota Camry the Camry was the top selling vehicle in Australia for the last 28 years they were about to make it 29 but Tesla came in with over a thousand sales in December and took the number one spot away from Toyota Tesla sold 10 877 model threes while the Camry sold 9538 and while this is not a massive Market by any means it's still showing how Tesla is stepping into areas that have been dominated by Legacy auto and they are taking over and now this is not a one-off scenario for a Toyota Toyota is also seeing their sales starting to slip over in China they actually shrunk For the First Time In China ever in their history so we are starting to see this happening all over the world we're seeing Legacy auto we've been seeing it since 2016 especially the Ford and GM their sales have been coming down here in the U.S since then you know back in 2016 interest rates started going back up again you know if you guys are not aware we had basically zero interest rates from the housing market crash until 2016.
interest rates started going up Legacy auto started to fall and then we went through the coveted supply chain issues and their sales came down even more now we're back in another Rising interest rate environment with very high interest so it seems like a legacy is most likely going to be losing some more ground now GM did grow in late vehicle sales by 3 percent last year so kudos to GM for growing a little bit but when you have Supply and you've shrunk as much as you did over the last two years seeing a little growth is normal so not to say that they can't get through this but just following Trends where Tesla is growing at 40 and the best Legacy auto is growing at three percent tells me all I need to know just looking at Rough valuations if a company is is growing at about 10 percent every year they typically get a 20pe Tesla right now has just over a 20 p e based upon EPS numbers for 2023.
if that's the case and they're growing at 40 year over year they should have a PE significantly higher somewhere around the 80 Mark but they're around 20. Legacy auto is not growing at that rate so when people are saying that Tesla should be valued like Legacy auto even if you're going to take in just the vehicle revenues just the vehicle sales alone Tesla is still growing at 40 percent so if that's the case why are we valuing them exactly like Legacy auto who is not growing at any rate as a matter of fact most of them are shrinking so this is why that disconnect is so strong then of course we can talk about the tech all day long software AI energy all the other things that are going to be taking Tesla to the next level and proving that they are not just a car company what kind of PE ratio do you put on that who knows but eventually Wall Street is going to figure this out and the p e ratio is going to go back up again and I strongly believe that 2023 is going to be the year of DCA dollar cost averaging this is going to be the year that we want to put our money in Because by the end of this year or into 2024 we are going to start seeing Wall Street and the economy turn around we're going to see money coming back into the stock market and all of this dust is going to settle and we are truly going to see what players are going to be the strongest coming out of this and based upon all the numbers that we currently have Tesla is going to be the strongest and now speaking of growing Tesla also filed for an expansion down in Giga Austin 716 million dollar 1.4 million square foot area that they are clearing to make room for a battery Factory and now looking at the timing of all of this with their lithium Refinery coming up and running and they say that should be up by 2024 between that and the batteries I have no doubt that that lithium Refinery is going to be pumped pumping lithium right into that factory for batteries and when it comes to the frustration about the stock price that some people are having take a look at what Tesla is doing on a fundamental level Tesla is still expanding their factories Tesla is still looking to open up new factories Tesla is still working on FSD Tesla is still building on insurance Tesla is still building with their energy program they're looking to open up another Factory for Mega packs they continue to take number one spots in sales from Legacy auto all over the world taking a look at all of these things that are going on on the deep underneath fundamental level of the company tells me just how much of a disconnect there is between the stock price and the actual company and how it's growing So eventually that is going to match back up again but right now we are at the biggest disconnect we have ever seen Tesla has never been trading at a PE as low as they are right now so that tells me I want to be buying now again I'm not dumping all of my money in but I invest a hundred fifty dollars into the market every single single week 25 dollars a day goes towards Tesla so that is 125 dollars a week and then I put twenty five dollars per week into cash and that's just sitting there so if we do fall down further I will be able to take advantage of that with that extra cash on the side and other ways that I have been building up some cash flow has been through CDs and dividend stocks I'll go into that in another video to really break down for you guys the different areas that I'm putting all of my money I'm going to be breaking up my entire portfolio and sharing it with all the members and patrons and on a monthly basis I will share that with all of you guys on here as well and so right now at the time of this recording pre-market we are up three quarters of a percent looking at how the day is going to trade and we do have that Gap that goes down to 114.39 we came close to filling it yesterday it was a partial fill on that chart so we're just waiting to see that get filled I have a feeling we will we had two days last week we bounced off of that 122 Mark and fell down now we've had two days this week where we've been hitting that 122 Mark and cannot break through it so I don't know today we probably end up sticking around that same spot really going to see how it plays out but with CPI tomorrow I think we're either going to break 122 or we're going to bounce off of it for the third time and then end up falling back down again we just need to wait and see what the data looks like then we do have Jerome Powell coming out on Friday to speak and as my dad said maybe it's because we're expecting some good CPI numbers to come in and Jerome Powell needed to come out there and say something hawkish in order to bring the stock market down and prevent it from really running don't forget tomorrow we have the CPI data coming out tomorrow's really going to give us some insight as to how the market is going to move we may get a pop we may get a drop we'll see how tomorrow is going to play out when we get the inflation data and when it comes to the next three months and how they're going to play out I think tomorrow we're expecting a 6.5 reading on the CPI the interest rates right now are about four and a half percent so we are expecting them to be going up about a half a percent at the end of this month that's going to put interest rates at five percent inflation at six and a half percent if that's the number that comes in next month we'll probably be looking at a 6.1 percent or a six percent inflation reading then in March we'll be looking at maybe a five and a half percent reading we'll see I'm not sure like it's a long ways out I'm not sure what expectations are going to be but I think around that March time frame is when we're going to see interest rates potentially being higher than inflation I think that is the signal that the FED is looking for in order to determine whether they're going to pause or not because if interest rates are higher than inflation it'll be easier for them to squash it down and then if they need to they may end up pivoting sooner if inflation falls down a lot faster than they expected now I do think that the FED is waiting to see the jobs Market crack a little bit we're starting to see a little bit of it but right now for the last basically two and a half years since covid you know while people were sent home from work and not had to work we've had basically a labor shortage for the last year and a half to two years employees right now have the upper hand they can get away with a lot because employers are desperate for bodies we don't like that in this country capitalism doesn't like what employees have the control like that I'm not a fan of it I prefer when you know employees actually have a say in and actually matter but that's just not how all of the system works we're going to need to have a system where employers can then have control and their you know employees actually need to work and earn their pay I think that's something that we're going to be sliding back to over the course of this year so I think that's part of why the FED is going to keep interest rates High because they need to see that crack happening they need to see you know we want to have a good strong labor market we've got unemployment at three and a half percent which is the lowest it's been in a long time so this is good you know from the economy standpoint having low unemployment is good but you also want to have a good balance there and right now we don't have that balance in the jobs Market I think that's going to end up playing out over the course of this year and that'll help determine when the FED is going to end up pivoting so you guys can let me know in the comments below what do you think Tesla is going to be doing for their number one spot this year previously Elon had said that he's expecting the model y to become the number one selling vehicle in the world and it looks like 2023 might be that year so you guys can let me know in the comments below if you think that is actually going to happen thank you all so much for watching we will see you in the next one
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