원문 보기
You're absolutely right. The UK has been a disappointing market. On the other hand, um the long period of kind of disappribation about the UK by global asset allocators, it's resulted in those London listed companies that are evidently worldclass enterprises. It's led to them being underowned and undervalued.
And I think what really interests me about the UK is we can find companies listed on the London stock market that appear to offer an access to the wealth that's likely to be created by artificial intelligence. And perhaps that's not a perspective on those businesses that's widely recognized. We believe that you can identify companies with structural franchises or brands that will endure and prosper.
And the best thing you can do is to hunker down and own them through inevitable periods of more difficult trading performance or investors attention being directed elsewhere. So yeah, maybe maybe to a fault almost, but we've we've chosen to be very very patient and very very supportive of companies where we can see value creation.
Welcome to the Master Investor podcast with me, Wilfred Frost, where we celebrate and learn from the success of the greatest investors, business leaders, and politicians in the world, giving you, our listeners, the edge. The Master Investor podcast is sponsored by Interactive Brokers. Please do remember the views expressed in this podcast are for generalformational purposes only.
Nothing in the podcast constitutes a financial promotion, investment advice, or a personal recommendation. More on that in the show notes. My guest today is one of the UK's best known fund managers as the founder of Lindel Train and the manager of their global strategies as well as the Finsbury Growth and Income Trust one of the oldest UK investment trusts founded in 1926 believe it or not which he has managed since 2000.
He's known for his patient convictionled approach which has led to extraordinary long-term performance albeit some more challenges in recent years. Uh I am of course talking about Nick Train. Nick, a very warm welcome to the Master Investor podcast. Thanks so much for joining me. Well, thank you for that glowing introduction and uh I'm pleased to be here and hope that we can um unear something of interest to your viewers.
I I have no doubt that we will and I have to say in terms of unearthing something I probably should have known this but I didn't realize until doing the prep the Finsbury Growth and Income Trust is 100 years old this January. Absolutely it is and it's one of the signal achievements of my life as I see it that I've been responsible for the investment affairs for a a quarter of that.
I'm in fact this month December I've lapped 25 years of responsibility. Um and I can't tell you how many but there aren't that many managers of investment trust with a 25 year and counting track record. Um and the the the performance since 2000 uh has been really impressive. The funds up 733%, the benchmark is up 317%.
Um which is the UK stock market. Which is the UK stock market is the benchmark. Um fabulous very long term. We'll get to some of the pressures in more recent years a little later. And you've got a a vote coming up on on this and it's um in terms of continuation. It's for the continuation of the company.
Um, our commercial relationship with the with the investment trust is completely separate to this existential question of whether the company continues for let's hope another hundred years. And uh, if there's anybody watching or listening who is a shareholder in Finsbury, please vote for the continuation.
I think that the the asset class, investment trusts in general and this investment trust, I would say so in particular, deserve to continue. Well, and this is uh great to hear you say that and uh our listeners can uh can judge after the the whole episode as well. Um let's talk a little bit about uh your investment philosophy o overall.
Um I mentioned in the top patient, conviction-led and and I think very long-term is is is fair to say it well patient kind of canotes um long-term um yeah I mean you know you can measure this um our annual portfolio turnover voluntary turnover over the last quarter of a century has averaged something less than 5% peranom um which even in the context of other patient investors really is quite strategic.
Um you know when I look at the top four or five holdings um most of those we've owned for at least a decade and some of them pretty much 25 years. So um yeah that's an approach and obviously at Linsel Train you have global funds, Japanese funds, North American funds and UK funds and you lead the Finsby Growth and Income Trust which we've mentioned already which focuses on the UK.
The UK really is my major focus as as I was going to say as well as um being a one of three fund managers of the global fund. So, so kind of having a full appreciation um of of that area and I just wanted to mention that before we dive into the the UK and the Finsbury Growth and Income Trust because I think it's worth just snapshotting you and the firm's view of not just global markets but US markets as well which I think influence a lot today.
Do do you look at that very strong performance, very strong level of innovation in the US that we've seen over the last five or 10 years and think things are a bit stretched, bit overdone or not? Um I I we are um we're always bullish. Um I think that is uh a very useful discipline as a long-term equity investor to be constructive about equity as an asset class.
And I have to include US equity within that context. I I wouldn't want to appine on where NASDAQ's going to be over the next 18 months, but I think that the structural drivers of a global equity bull market uh which are a combination of technology innovation um and pressures on declining inflation um make for make for a constructive backdrop.
I think I hope that the UK stock market um might offer particular value in the con in that context. Let's touch on then UK versus versus the rest of the world. I mean before we get on to your fund um and the the selling points of that I guess it's fair to say for the last decade two decades picking a fund that is benchmarked to the Footsie all share as opposed to the S&P 500 was the wrong choice.
Um expand on that for us a bit and do you think that's about to flip? You you're absolutely right. The UK has been a disappointing market and it's been disappointing for in hindsight understandable reasons um which is that the exposure offered by the benchmark to structural growth industries has been lower than other markets.
Um and I can't honestly say to use your terminology that that is about to flip. On the other hand, um the long period of kind of disappribbation about the UK by global asset allocators, I I think evidently it's resulted in those London listed companies that are evidently worldclass enterprises. Um it's led to them being underowned and undervalued.
And I think what really interests me about the UK is looking at the stock market from the perspective of what does artificial intelligence mean for industries, companies over the next decade, we can find companies listed on the London stock market that appear to offer um an access to the wealth that's likely to be created by artificial intelligence.
Um, and perhaps and perhaps that's not a perspective on those businesses that's widely recognized. I So maybe that's that's the thing that most um thrills me about the opportunity that I think we're capturing in our portfolio. Um, I'm really interested to explore that a bit. Is that a a recent thrill for you?
Because I mean I guess AI is a recent development. So so is that is that case for and we'll get to the fund itself in a moment that case for a fund index the footsie all share quite a new case because AI is applicable and can deliver profit margin improvements for your companies in a way that perhaps five years ago you couldn't have made the case for for UK based companies.
Yeah, I think I think it's fair to say that the the advent of chat um focused everybody's minds on what the implications might be of this emerging tool. Um I mean can I can I talk about this ju just a bit? Um uh Wolf, you you we both know that we might at some stage talk about um London Stock Exchange Group as a business that could be a beneficiary of of of AI.
And I I think the chief the chief executive of Else, David Schwimmer, has shared a useful framework for thinking about the AI phenomenon. um he analyzes is it as being uh constitute of three interlocking factors the AI phenomenon. There is first of all the requirement for unprecedented amounts of computing power.
Second the emergent agents that are competing with each other all the time. They're evolving all the time to become cleverer with maybe at some point indeterminate point one of them emerging as the cleverest but we don't know which one that's going to be yet if ever. And then the third but still absolutely critical factor the third leg of the stool as he puts it is data.
And David Schwmer's view is that the compute will become commoditized. Ultimately, it will be determined by who's got the most hundreds of billions of dollars to invest in the computing parameters. The agents will be in a kind of perpetual battle between each other to generate new insights to justify their commercial viability.
And from his perspective, owners of proprietary data, obviously it has to be proprietary, but owners of proprietary data are in a strategically advantaged position to kind of sell sell their data to the highest bidder. And just on Else just for a moment and just to conclude this bit of conversation.
So fascinating to see that Else has cut deals with both Anthropic and Open AI to sell its proprietary data to those to those agents. Um London Stock Exchange Group uh I should mention is is soon to be a sponsor of this podcast though that's totally unrelated of course to the fact that that you own it in your fund.
Let's round some wonderful commercial acumen if I may say so. Well, I mean I I won't comment on that but uh full disclosures are out there. Why don't we dwell then on on this is as a particular stock pick for a moment because what then is the valuation multiple that you have to pay for that exposure to this growth AI theme compared to I guess some of the plays that you
does it really matter? I mean I I can tell you you tell me. I I can I can tell you um but I I think you know I if we've learned anything from NASDAQ over the last decade it's that the the starting multiple for a digital business with low capital intensity and a significant growth opportunity the starting multiple doesn't matter that much I mean it is absolutely critical ical that the franchise or the franchises because there are several within Else are world class and that the growth does eventuate.
But I mean the way I'd look at Else is that um it's an example of a London listed business that is a globally significant set of assets with a clear growth opportunity and I it, you know, just ostensibly, you're not asked to pay the same valuation that you might be for a comparable NASDAQ listed asset.
Now, I've conveyed a lot uh in those comments. I I think you could deduce, and it pains me to say it, but I don't think I would recommend anybody contemplating the UK stock market as a possible home for capital. I'm not sure I would recommend buying uh an ETF on the UK. I I I would think that you would need to do as we do and look through the UK stock market for those relatively rare businesses that have, you know, as I've tried to convey with Else, truly
globally significant assets. It's it's an interesting point and I I would also guess that the amount of people that are doing that is much lower in this country versus the US where S&P 500 ETFs, NASDAQ ETFs have have taken more of the overall market share in the last decade or two. Um we flipped the order there a little bit which I think is actually quite helpful because it brings me to another point.
You your fund I think has a maximum of 30 holdings but in fact is even more concentrated than that suggests. uh you have typically around 20 with I think you have five holdings that are 10% or so LEG being one of them. We'll talk about some of the others. The top 10 make up 80%. I think it's more than more than 80%.
I right now may 80 85%. So to your last point about not recommending an overall ETF, you you are very very concentrated. Exactly. And and to revert to your opening gambit about an investment trust as a vehicle as a the constitution of an investment trust permits a degree of portfolio concentration that wouldn't be available to most other certainly conventional uh fund structures.
Um so the the the inc the the the pallet of investment approaches available to to an investment trust are wider and yeah I think we've taken advantage of that. Um, I hear the because you talked about patience earlier, I I I hear Buffett and Munger behind your questions and um, you know, I think I think it is worth me um, putting it out.
um that the achievement of Barkshire Hathaway uh has been a huge influence on us and Munger's observation that all you need are eight world-class businesses to make up a portfolio and then you just sit and wait and good things will tend to happen to you. You know, that's been a pretty good account of what we've attempted to do.
Um and yeah, as you were kind enough to notice, at least at one phase of this, very, very good things were happening to us. This podcast is sponsored by Interactive Brokers. Building wealth starts with the right broker. Interactive Brokers helps you reach your goals with powerful tools, global market access, low costs, and unmatched financial strength.
That's why the best informed investors choose IBKR. Learn more at ibkr.com/masterinvestor. Why don't we continue to talk about some of those big positions? Uh so another one which I guess feeds into the similar theme you're saying about um Else with the data position uh and how it can tap into AI and it's another one of your sort of circa 10% positions is relics
indeed and and that previously was Reed El See um talk talk us through the the the buy case for that now when you look at the franchises within relics how it's been able to create value essentially the journey from being uh uh an analog data provider to important industry verticals like legal, like research, like insurance to being a digital provider of data and now data analytics and software services to those industries.
That's been a long um value creating journey. Um we the last time we met the chief executive of of Rellex you know the CEO reminded us that 20 years ago when he was appointed Rellex is risk division um which is an AI powered machine toachine service to corporations all around the world. 20 years ago, that division represented 2% of Relax's market value in his estimation.
Today, he reckons that Rel's risk division is worth over half of the value of the company, and the company's value is materially higher than it was 20 years ago. But as he says, the prospects for that risk division are better than ever and the size of the market opportunity is greater than ever. And again, going back to that earlier proposition, what have we learned from NASDAQ?
It's that capital light digital businesses with a clear and substantive TAM ahead of them, total addressable market ahead of them, they can stay rewarding for much much longer than maybe British investors um have understood. Um I think it's very notable I mean the two businesses that we've spoken about uh both have very significant US shareholders shareholdings.
There are US growth institutions right at the top of the register for both Else and Rlex. Now maybe that's partly to do with the changing shape of UK institutional investors withdrawing from equity but I also think it is an endorsement of the um the value creation in those companies that US investors identify.
Let's um dwell just before we go kind of come back to performance more broadly and and uh and and other factors to another one of your big holdings which clearly isn't a tech play. It's a different play in Diagio. Um and again it's I think over 10% position or about 10% position. I think everyone knows Diagio uh clearly an owner of some of the most famous drinks brands in the world.
uh why do you still hold that and why has it underperformed uh so much in in the last uh year or so? Ju just as a as a start point um I might argue that Diagio's assets are more correlated with tech than you might think. um Diagio as a a purveyor of premium spirits products actually for most of the 21st century has been obviously not a direct correlate and it hasn't offered you the same reward as in investing in Nvidia but nonetheless I think that there has been a clear correlation between that wealth creation and you know what what what does everybody say about um about alcohol alcohol consumption, which you know, it's indisputable.
Um, consumers are drinking less alcohol, but when they choose to drink alcohol, they're drinking better quality gear. And um that so far this century, not over the last two or three years, you're absolutely right, that has played to Diagio as being not just the world's biggest spirits company, but arguably having the best set of set of brands.
And I think a reason, yeah, a reason to own it is I would continue to expect the wealth created, let's say this time by AI, some of that wealth to find its way into the consumption of high-end Don Julio tequila or or more Johnny Walker blue label being drunk than Johnny Walker red label. Does that make sense?
Mhm. Um I think maybe there's a more fundamental reason though that that we've retained the investment and it has been painful, you know, but a reason that we've retained the investment. Um I'm not saying I necessarily agree with the whole of this observation, but but let me let me put it here. Um Bernard Arno um
one of the richest uh men in the world was was was quoted recently as saying on a 50-year view he had no idea whether the iPhone was going to remain as relevant a product as it is today. Um, on the other hand, Arno said, I have no doubt that Don Perinho will still be being consumed and aspired to being consumed in 50 years time.
Now, I don't know about the iPhone, but I agree with him about the likely desiraability of Don Perinor on a multi multi-deade perspective. And you know, I think his point is well made and it behooves investors to recognize how vanishingly scarce brands like Don Perinure are and how they can protect wealth over long long periods of time and that is extraordinarily valuable.
I mean cherry-picking I might like to because it it's it it's it's more pertinent to me. Um I might say in 1999 if you'd offered an investor in 1999 the choice between let's say investing let's say you had to hold it for 25 years what and you had two choices one of them was Nokia and the other was Diagio um a surprising proportion of the people that you'd offered that choice to in 1999 would have chosen Nokia and okay hindsight I understand.
But but you can equally understand why people might have been attracted to the growth of mobile telefan and that and that franchise and it would have been wrong. Um technology obsolescence is a thing and it's brutal when when it happens. Um, you know, we were buying Diagio in 2000, shortly after we were appointed to run Finsbury Growth and Income Trust, paying £5 a share.
Um, by 2022, it was £40 a share. Um, and you know, it's still trebled over o over more than trebled over over that uh over that quarter of a century. And again, sorry, I'm just going to say this. Johnny Walker, Guinness, Bon Julio, Moenessi, those brands will be being consumed in 25 years time, probably in greater volumes because the world will get richer over that time and that is a rare and at least theoretically hugely attractive investment proposition.
Really, really interesting and obviously you got you have the ying and the yang actually. It's not Noia or Diagio with with some of the tech exposure. I also thought the Aro comparison made me think of gold versus Bitcoin as well as a as a Yes, I've heard that predicated made me made me think of that.
Let's touch on the performance a bit if we can Nick cuz as I said at the top performance since you're appointed in December 2000 733% uh compared to the benchmark for all share up 317%. over 10, five and and one year it's it's it's less attractive and and this year um Yes. Yes. Yes. Well, but we need to we need to we need to mention it.
You know, year to date down 3% and and the benchmarks up 20. What what's the snapshot for for what what you've missed in in the shorter term? Well, we we we've missed and we've missed it for structural reasons. we've missed a value rally in a value market and uh Finsbur's portfolio is deliberately heavily biased towards um growth businesses and growth franchises and particularly during 2025 um that hasn't been what investors have been chasing and I have to acknowledge um in two of the companies in particular that I've already highlighted.
Um, London Stock Exchange Group, which is down year to date, and a forti Diagio, which is down year to date. Um, at least temporarily, or I've got to believe, we've got to believe temporarily, the growth credentials of those businesses have come into question. Um, what does one do in the circumstances?
um I buy more shares in Finsbury Growth and Income Trust and increase my personal exposure at what I've got to believe is an advantageous juncture. And and I know that you're heavily invested in your own fund which I think is is highly highly commendable. Um I I want to read you a quote because I've read through a lot of your investment memos um of late and I know you've quoted Munger and Buffett who clearly influence your thinking.
Um, in one of them you quoted Thomas Phelps, another famous US investor from from a hundred years ago or so. And you quote this from him. You wrote, "It would be hard to find a worse slogan than you'll never go busting a profit. Uh, every sale is a confession of error." Essentially, with what you just said about Else and Diego, that that's the message you're putting across, is it?
That you you still believe the buy case very clearly for those companies. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. And so how how do you know when you've bought a company and you've made a mistake? I mean it it it gets right to the heart of the strength and weaknesses of this investment approach. Um, we we believe that you can identify companies with structural franchises or brands that will endure and prosper.
And the best thing you can do is to hunker down and own them through inevitable periods of more difficult trading performance or investors attention being directed elsewhere. That is most uncomfortable um while you're experiencing it. But for me and my colleagues, all I can say is that at earlier stages of our career, we sought to run money in a more conventional way, arguably of shifting in and out of sectors or industries relative to our expectations of what might be fashionable over the next six months.
And that ended up chasing chasing our tails. Um, so yeah, maybe maybe to a fault almost, but we've we've chosen to be very very patient and very very supportive of companies where we can see value creation. um you know I I don't want to um uh disregard some of the shorter term headwinds, macro headwinds that are confronting Diagio, but within the context even even of a company that's having a tough time when you look at the growth of Guinness uh as as a brand, okay, it's 15% of a Diagio.
Um it's not 60% of Diagio, but it's not nothing. Um it it you know it's clear that consumers interest in appreciating a unique brand like that remains as as lively as ever and um yeah that's that's a reason to stay patient. It's the thing that I find really interesting having you know you've you mentioned the this the inspiration from Buffett and uh and Munga um you obviously do have a benchmark um when you have the similar approach to them uh and you stick to your convictions but also have a benchmark I guess the other thing you have to have as well is the flexibility from your investors to underperform for for a period of time and and I think that in that regard Buffett is kind of perhaps unique globally um on on having that unbelievably long time horizon given to him by his investors.
You do have that track record as I've mentioned a few times from from from inception. You know, it stands out. Sure. Sure. Do do you think I guess my question on it is do you think that investors given the structure of your proposition with a a benchmark as opposed to just a a target to beat inflation?
Do you think investors time horizon is shrinking over the course of your career? And does that add pressure on you to I guess change your approach or leave leave the convictions aside and chase performance? Do do you sort of see what I mean? Well, I I I I do um you know, I I think it's worth uh remembering that that Buffett has always measured himself against the S&P 500 and he he's always said that although Barkshire Haway in no way is attempting to mimic that benchmark in terms of the chosen assets, nonetheless, as a weighing machine for the success of capital within an important economy like the United States, um it's it's justifiable that he should be measured in the long term against his ability to allocate capital better than the than the market average.
And that's that's what I feel uh about what we're doing as well. I I I I probably couldn't even tell you what the shape is of the old share index except in the most general terms. I'm much much much more focused on individual businesses but absolutely you know I look every 3 months at how we are doing relative to to that benchmark.
Um uh again um investing in an ETF, investing in a passive tracker is a perfectly viable way for an individual to probably meet their financial aspirations. Um we are and have always been an ambitious boutique investment management business and it's absolutely requisite for us necessary for us to take some kind of risk.
Um the risk that we've chosen to take inspired as you say by Buffett and Munger is portfolio concentration but we've sought to concentrate the portfolio on substantive enduring assets that we've believed and actually over the piece have been able to demonstrate that the intrinsic risk is actually lower than you might think because of the caliber of the the caliber of the business franchises.
Nick, as we start to wrap up, I have two two two final questions and they kind of bring it bring it back to you personally. And and the first is the sort of pressure you feel um and the disappointment, whatever word you might use in those moments in time when you when you underperform. H how does that how do you deal with it?
Um and how do you confront it and and decide to sort of fight on? Well, I I took a a conscious decision probably 30 years ago before we even set up the business. I took a conscious decision to be constantly optimistic um optimistic about the outlook for economies, capital markets, optimistic about the outlook for the businesses that we were invested in.
And I think that that that wasn't necessarily native to me, that optimism. But I noted that in my experience, pessimism as a trait was associated with failure in the investment industry. People get too cautious, particularly maybe as people get older, they get too cautious and too pessimistic. And all I can say is that I have trained myself to be an optimist and to regard a setback like this year has been a setback as as a buying opportunity and that's that's all I can say
and the long-term performance has rewarded the optimists. No, no doubt about it. Um, final question, Nick, and we, you know, we asked this for to all of the great investors that have come on, but what is your overriding piece of investment advice for our listeners? What my mantra for my for myself um and for my colleagues um is be bold, be disciplined.
Whatever your particular discipline is and and to be optimistic. Um so that's I guess what I would say. Be bold, be disciplined, be optimistic. and Finsbur's portfolio today, the the the the structure, the principles underpinning that portfolio are the same as they were 10 years ago or 20 years ago.
Well, Nick, it's been a real pleasure to have you on the podcast. Um it I'd love to do it again in due course and good luck with the the vote coming uh in January. Um thank you so much for joining us on the Master Investor podcast. Wolf, thank you very much. Um, as I say, let's let's hope there was something of value there for for people who got the patience to watch it.
I have no doubt there was. That was Nick Train, the founder of Linsel Train, the manager of the Finsby Growth and Income Trust. And that does it for uh this year for us here on the Master Investor podcast. We thank you so much for tuning in. Uh have a very merry Christmas and we look forward to joining us early in the new year.
Our first episode will be uh with uh the legendary investor and podcast co-founder Jim Melon. Tune in for that and a great slew of guests to come in 20 m. Was he really? There we go. Well, there we go. Nick, I hope we'll be one of those listeners then. Nick, thank you again so much for joining us and merry Christmas indeed.
Thank you. Season's greetings. The Master Investor podcast is sponsored by Interactive Brokers. Please do remember the views expressed in this podcast are for generalformational purposes only. Nothing in the podcast constitutes a financial promotion, investment advice, or a personal recommendation. More on that in the show notes.
This podcast is produced by Paradine Productions and Master Investor Limited in association with Birdline Media. If you've enjoyed the show, please do subscribe on YouTube or click follow on your podcast platform and you'll be automatically notified each time a new episode drops.
Comments 0