저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
인플레이션 대응 과정에서 연준의 양적완화와 재정정책이 자산 거품을 만들었고, 이를 되돌리는 긴축 국면은 최소 18~36개월 지속되며 자산 가격의 저점은 아직 멀었다는 주장. 거시 배경: 팬데믹 이후 과잉 유동성으로 물가가 급등했고, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁이 이를 악화시켜 세계 경제가 침체 직전이라는 진단. 미국 물가 40년 만의 최고 수준, 연준 75bp 금리 인상 언급. 시장 상황: S&P500 연초 대비 약 21% 하락, 다우 약 17% 하락, 5월 CPI 8.6%. 주식(특히 성장주)은 많이 하락했으나 자산 거품이 다른 자산으로 순환할 것으로 봄. 암호화폐 자산 거품도 언급. 근거 수치와 기간: 세계 GDP 약 85조 달러 대비 약 30조 달러 유동성 회수 필요. 이는 3년 가량의 점진적 긴축이 필요하며, 바닥은 18개월 이후에나 형성될 수 있다고 봄. 주택 시장: 주택 재고 사상 최고 수준, 판매 감소, 모기지 금리 약 6%로 급등. 주택 가격은 소득 대비 2006~2007년 수준으로 높아 추가 하락 가능성 제기. 정책 책임론: 연준(파월)이 가장 큰 책임, 바이든 행정부는 취임 첫날 키스톤 송유관 취소 등 에너지 정책과 대규모 부양책(ARP)으로 인플레이션을 악화시켰다고 비판. 언급 종목·자산: 개별 종목 매수·매도 추천 없음. 성장주 추가 하락 가능성, 주택·신용 자산으로의 하락 확산 가능성 언급. 리스크/조건: 연준이 긴축을 조기에 멈추면 시나리오 변화 가능. 장기 저점 전 대형 변동성(choppy market) 예상. 출연자는 단기 반등보다 장기 약세 국면을 전제로 함. 출연자 전망: 증시는 지금이 바닥이 아니며 추가 하락과 횡보 가능성이 높다는 약세 견해.
다듬은 글
so if you think about taking 30 trillion dollars out of the global economy you know you're talking about almost you know i think it's 85 trillion is the world gdp so like you know it's it's it's almost half of an entire year's worth of global gdp it's going to take three years probably of the slow meticulous you know running off of money you know not reintroducing new money so it seems like we're at the beginning of the beginning of something that's going to be long and drawn out and that's separate from whether we're in a recession or not that's just the bear market that we're in right and so you have to look at asset prices today as a microcosm of a much larger trend that has to be about fake money pushing asset prices up and now taking all that fake money out and finding out what the real price of something is and i just don't think that takes six months so for all the people that were you know fingers crossed hoping that this would be the end of it fed raises 75 we're done with this they're going to raise 75 more i just think that's not how it's probably going to be it's going to take you know 24 36 months that may mean the bottom doesn't happen for another 18 months so i think it's a we're in for a lot of choppy um market action the global economy has seen a spike in inflation specifically after the free money injection during the pandemic outbreak this so-called free money has caused an inflation of prices of commodities assets and everything traded in the economy the russian ukraine war has made the situation worse consequently the overheated global economy is on the verge of a recession a u.s report stated that this is the highest inflation in over 40 years and to counter the surging inflation the federal government has announced a 75 basis point interest rate hike chalmette believes that the us economy won't recover for another 36 to 48 months we must win the financial war subscribe to keep learning the truth the markets are in complete turmoil uh spy down twenty one percent year-to-date dow's down seventeen percent year-to-date as saks has pointed out that is not representative of what happened to growth socks at the same time and uh the may cpi uh went up and it was at 8.6 we also got the 75 basis point rate hike the thing that you have to do before you talk about what is happening now i think it's probably useful to go back and you have to really start at the end of the great financial crisis and the reason is there's a bunch of people coming out of the gfc who confused what the u.s government and some european governments were doing at the time there was the risk of a huge financial contagion and so the u.s stepped in and the federal reserve started to use their balance sheet to buy toxic assets right and the ecb did that and i think japan did that as well anyways a bunch of banks did it i mean a bunch of governments did it and then there was this body of pseudoscientist certificate economists who coined this thing called modern monetary theory which basically said hey you can keep printing money and introducing it into the economy to smooth things out and to actually drive long-term growth and it turns out that a bunch of government officials fell for it and if you fast forward to 2022 so 14 years later you know governments around the world had printed something to the tune of about 30 35 odd trillion dollars of money into the economy that should have never been there so the thing to remember is like we have not necessarily just been obfuscating true supply demand in the last six or eight months when we've been talking about a recession or inflation we've been actually doing it since 2008 it's just that it's been building up in the system so one of the things that we have to realize is that all of that money somehow needs to get destroyed in some way shape or form if the true economic equilibrium is meant to be found what is true supply what is true demand in the absence of government sloshing money around trying to prop up things that should not be propped up or buying votes or all the griffs that these folks have engaged in in the last you know decade and a half have to get undone so that's the backdrop so if you think about taking 30 trillion dollars out of the global economy you know you're talking about almost you know i think it's 85 trillion is the world gdp so like you know it's it's it's almost half of an entire year's worth of global gdp it's gonna take three years probably of the slow meticulous you know running off of money you know not reintroducing new money so it seems like we're at the beginning of the beginning of something that's going to be long and drawn out now that's separate from and that's separate from whether we're in a recession or not that's just the bear market that we're in right and so you have to look at asset prices today as a microcosm of a much larger trend that has to be about fake money pushing asset prices up and now taking all that fake money out and finding out what the real price of something is and i just don't think that takes six months so for all the people that were you know fingers crossed hoping that this would be the end of it fed raises 75 we're done with this they're going to raise 75 more i just think that's not how it's probably going to be it's going to take you know 24 36 months that may mean the bottom doesn't happen for another 18 months so i think it's a we're in for a lot of choppy um market action three asset bubbles clearly all um you know being impacted we had stocks looks like that story was pretty violent uh then we had crypto this last two or three weeks have been absolutely insane in terms of that asset bubble and now uh record high inventories for homes record sales are now dipping below the average of the last 20 years and um we're seeing uh mortgage origination just absolutely get crushed six percent mortgages just a couple of months ago it was two point x uh for some folks so when you look at those three asset bubbles do you buy chamots hey we're gonna see even more deprecation in these for another 18 months possibly or do you think we've taken such crazy action this has come down so violently that we're now bouncing along the bottom bouncing along the bottom or 18 months of more pain well the stock market especially growth stocks may have taken the majority of the carnage but you're right there are other asset classes and i think we're going to see the carnage start to rotate into those so you're right if you look at residential real estate now the prices are at the highest they've been relative to median income since something like 2006 2007 before that sort of great real estate crash that precipitated the great recession of 2008.
um so i think there are going to be more more shoes to drop i just want to build on chamas point about root causes here milton friedman once said that there's nothing quite so permanent as a temporary government program the temporary government program was quantitative easing we had this great recession of 2008 that could have turned into a depression they broke the glass in case of emergency they started this qe which is basically the government intervening to buy bonds in the market they had never done that before and they loaded up their balance sheet the crazy thing is that program was still continuing until last year why i mean it was like on cruise control and so last year it was it was continuing until last month and countries like europe are still doing it nine percent inflation in europe and they're still buying bonds right so you go back to last year the fed bought 54 of the government's debt despite the fact that the economy was growing at like 5 gdp that it was bouncing back really strongly from kovit that you had the stock market at all-time highs and yet they were still intervening with this massive qe and then when we got the surprise 5.1 inflation print last summer they didn't stop qe till the end of q1 so you're right they kept basically printing money and it's still going on and that's created massive distortions in the economy now so the fed i would say is the number one culprit here and j pal is the number one culprit but the number two culprit is the biden administration and i think biden did three things very early on in the first few months of his presidency to effectively tank his presidency number one he canceled our energy independence on his first day in office canceling the keystone pipeline and making it much harder to drill and of course energy inflation is number one factor in this sort of overall inflation number two he pushed through that last two trillion of stimulus on straight party lines the arp the american rescue plan after larry summers said economists in his own party said this is going to create inflation don't do it and then the third thing is and no one really talks about this is that biden could have used diplomacy in 2021 to basically find an off-ramp to this ukraine crisis before it turned into a full-fledged war you must win the financial war to protect your family in your future click the subscribe button to keep learning the truth
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