저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인이 디지털 가치저장 수단으로 장기적으로 크게 성장할 것이라고 주장한다. [핵심 주장 - 비트코인의 역할] 비트코인은 가치저장, 교환수단, 회계단위의 세 가지 화폐 역할 중 현재 가치저장 수단으로 가장 많이 쓰인다. 고액 거래는 이미 비트코인으로 이루어지고 있으며 앱 생태계도 성장 중이다. [근거 - 공급 제한과 규모] 비트코인 공급은 2,100만 개로 고정되어 있어 수요가 늘면 구매력이 상승한다. 미국 통화기반은 당시 4조 달러에서 8조 달러로 증가한 상태이며, 이를 근거로 비트코인 시장 규모 확대를 전망했다. [근거 - 인플레이션·디플레이션 헤지] 신흥국의 인플레이션과 초인플레이션에 대한 헤지 수단으로 본다. 미국 디플레이션 우려에 대해서도 비트코인이 대비책이 될 수 있다고 언급했다. [ESG·사회적 가치] 비트코인 채굴은 전통적 금 채굴이나 금융 서비스 부문보다 친환경적이며 앞으로 더 개선될 것이라고 주장했다. 송금 수수료(8%~30%)를 줄여 엘살바도르, 통가, 네팔 등 송금 의존 국가에 경제적 혜택을 줄 수 있다고 설명했다. [거버넌스·투명성] 블록체인 생태계는 금융 시스템과 달리 투명하다고 강조했다. 아크 인베스트는 연구 자료를 무료로 공개해 교육하고 있다고 밝혔다. [출연자 전망] 비트코인을 장기 투자 대상으로 보며, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
people will want to buy more than 36 million dollars a day prices go up people don't want to buy 36 million dollars of newly minted bitcoin a day prices go down you know bitcoin is has done wonders for our brand it's elevated our brand by a factor of a hundred that bitcoin will be much more environmentally friendly certainly than traditional gold mining or the traditional financial services sector in many ways it already is the first thing was uh our focus on disruptive innovation uh so starting in 2011 brett winton our director of research who i know will be on the program later um he started talking about this thing called crypto well bitcoin at the time and it was a curiosity as we were doing our brainstorms in in research but as we learn more about this open source ecosystem uh that might fulfill the role of the the payment system that the internet neglected to build into the system not expecting commerce we thought hmm this might be something and then i became even more interested when i realized uh that there that that my economics would come into play as well here and uh art laffer um my mentor uh from from usc uh and a monetary scholar uh in 2014 i asked him if he would collaborate on a paper on on bitcoin uh and he he was a bit of a naysayer at first and uh but agreed to read the paper he read the paper tore it up and and and from an economics point of view really wanted to understand this and he said you know i think you got something here this is a rules-based monetary system i've been waiting for this for my entire career so the combination of disruptive innovation generally economics on top of that and the huge misunderstanding out there as to what this is uh that was that was intriguing and launched our research effort oh well i'll just uh i'll recount the the the story uh about art laffer and and our going through the paper uh and he said as i said first rules based monetary system global ever this is a a very big idea once we had convinced him of the um of the ecosystem itself uh now this is uh the role that it's playing given that the rule is a quantity rule that 21 million units is really a store of value uh role so there are three roles of money uh store of value very important uh uh the means of exchange so for transactions and the unit of account uh so uh every good priced in terms of of whatever the unit is so store of value is um its primary use right now um the others uh exist with unit of account reserve currency of the crypto asset ecosystem that's being seeded a little bit towards uh uh stable coins right now uh but the store of value is a a a very big role and means of exchange with apps built on top of the bitcoin blockchain we think is going to become more more of a reality right now high value uh high value transactions take place over over bitcoin uh and uh and that is a very useful role so we look at those and i remember saying to art how big could this be and he said well how big is the u.s monetary base well today it's eight trillion dollars eight trillion dollars at the time we were talking it was 4 trillion so we've gone through another crisis since then um and so this store of value this idea that purchasing power will go up over time if demand rises relative to supply supply ultimately fixed at 21 million units um that's that's a very good thing purchasing power going up globally around the world uh and this idea that it's a hedge against uh confiscation of wealth uh and that can take place in in a myriad of ways uh but uh inflation and especially hyperinflation in emerging markets is the primary way talk about uh just destroying purchasing power uh so that's a very big uh very big idea and i'll also mention uh deflation in some ways it's a hedge against deflation i know some people are confused that um we uh at arc think that we're in a deflationary environment here in the united states if that is true the odds of a hyperinflation in the rest of the world especially in emerging markets uh is also true so but this deflation and we learned from oh 809 there's counterparty risk associated with deflation and i think bitcoin uh would be a hedge against that uh eventuality as well so it's a very big idea so e of course is environmental s is social and g is governance uh and there is a massive movement uh afoot in the institutional world especially uh to embrace uh esg and and make sure that their asset managers are are doing the same uh so if if we've just talked about environmental and i i really do believe uh that bitcoin will be much more environmentally friendly certainly than traditional gold mining or the traditional financial services sector in many ways it already is and it's just going to uh get better that way in terms of social i know that um many institutions when they are thinking of social they think of diversity and equity pay equity and all of that uh but uh if from our point of view the disruptive innovation point of view social is uh much more than that uh it is saving lives of course autonomous technology that would be another topic uh for elon uh but in this case uh allowing access to payment technology as jack is is saying everywhere around the world without friction if you and just back to the remittance um example i think uh if if i've got these stats correctly you know there are certain countries in the world that are dependent incredibly dependent on remittances for you know gdp uh to uh tonga 37 el salvador which just deemed uh bitcoin legal currencies 24 nepal 24 and i think the remittance industry globally and roughly 700 billion uh so uh saving people these uh egregious fees you know think about it you're paying anywhere from eight percent to to as jack said thirty percent of your hundred dollars that you're sending back to your family uh that is uh social responsibility i i would submit as is just the uh economic empowerment that bitcoin will enabled we've talked about that already uh and i know that uh alex gladstein is going to be talking later about um you know the 4.3 billion people in the world who are hostage to authoritarian regimes or the 1.3 billion who are living in uh uh double digit and and triple digit inflation if not more saving them from the destruction of their purchasing power certainly is a noble social goal so we expand social to be much more than the traditional esg community and then on governance you've got uh the transparency of the ecosystem uh you know uh it's completely transparent unlike uh the opaqueness of financial systems well arc um has uh stood for two things democratization and transparency uh democratizat we're the closest you'll find to a venture capital fund in the public equity markets and i kind of feel that uh bit i mean that bitcoin or we have uh bitcoin's dna from that point of view uh so uh what one of the things in terms of democratization is education we uh have um one of our our missions values is to educate and i do believe that um that some of yaseen almandra's white papers yaseen's our lead crypto analysts um are are helping helping the cause we've done uh and not only for retail investors uh we found that uh we had to do a bit more when it came to institutional investors just because of the way that they invest and uh you know the way they they like to receive information so um just like in our investments we've been the retail community has been more attracted to us first and now the institutional community is is coming along so i i do think our transparency of research especially in uh the social world social media pushing our research out uh to for free to anyone uh is is part of our our way of of helping the community and i do think encouraging and this is something that jack just said um i would encourage the support of the bitcoin uh core developer community as i said uh before it's it's amazing to me having gotten to know some of them uh you know how strong their sense of purpose is here and uh so we'd like to be a help of making uh helpful in making that happen as well you
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