저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Anthropic이 Amazon 칩을 쓰는 등 AI 생태계가 빠르게 바뀌고 OpenAI 점유율이 줄었다는 분석. Microsoft는 Copilot으로 여러 모델을 유통하는 플랫폼 역할을 하며 장기적으로 매력적이라 평가. 기술적으로 주봉 상 36% 조정 후 피보나치 0.79(362)에서 반등했고, 약 30% 추가 상승 여지를 언급. 다만 'Not a recommendation'이라 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Really, well, and the whole AI thing, right? And all of that is really moving forward, and now we have another piece of news from Anthropic. Exactly, Anthropic, yesterday we were at a workshop with the people from AWS, the people from Amazon, we were there with Guise and other guys at Bull. Uh, it was really good, actually, they introduced us to their agent that they use, let's say, uh, which is called Quick, Amazon Quick, uh, which is kind of like Cloud, like ChatGPT, but theirs, right?
Uh, although they use a model in the Anthropic one, I understand. Well, it's really interesting how this whole world is moving, the whole world of AI, models, agents, and so on. I really suggest and recommend this a lot; it always brings up a book for me. Uh, for example, the one about Ordinary Shares, Extraordinary Profits, talks a lot, it's a book from the 1950s and it talks a lot about looking for information.
Okay, there was no internet or anything, right? Today everything is much easier, but seek information from the people who work at the company you're interested in, seek information from competitors, seek information from suppliers, seek information from managers if you manage to climb up to those people, right?
And here it's very interesting because the guy who gave us the workshop was a truly wonderful group of people there at Amazon. Uh, he was telling us a little bit about how this whole world was moving and how a year ago ChatGPT, Open AI, was like the undisputed leader. In other words, that's what it says; it's the foundational basis of everything that is artificial intelligence.
Uh, in chat, meaning you can talk and a machine answers you on the other side, uh it was OpenAI , but nowadays that has migrated and today most companies are using Anthropic. Exactly. I think it might also be a little bit because of, uh, a little bit because of publicity and so on, because if you think about programming with artificial intelligence, you, people who aren't from Haiti, uh, people who are n't from systems, I'm telling you, programming artificial intelligence, the first thing that comes to mind, or that might come to your mind, is Cloud Cowork or Cloud, the code of Cloud, yes, for coding.
But why is the topic of advertising so important? Because Open AI, I was just talking to Facu, the head of systems, who said, we have also used Open AI's Codex a lot. I, honestly, being outside of this whole world, not that involved, I didn't have it registered, but hey, look how advertising made Anthropic position itself with Cloud Cowork and many retailers, I'm not talking about companies, but many retailers want to consume, that's $20 every month from millions and millions of people.
So the issue of advertising is also very important, isn't it? And it works interestingly, but what's the point of this news from Reuters? Uh, from Reuters, which is what I said a while ago, Microsoft, what made me a little dizzy was that they were very involved with OpenAI, very involved. And what happened to this, to this ever- changing world?
OpenAI was king a year ago , today it lost a lot of market share. Cloud, Gemini, you name it , it lost a lot. So, this thing that Microsoft is starting to do, mmm, to shift a little, yes, to move away from that absolute dependence on OpenAI, I like it, because you don't put all your eggs in one basket in the artificial intelligence race .
So now it seems, yes, this news is from yesterday, that Anthropic is in talks to use Microsoft's artificial intelligence chips, right? And this is, well, we're starting to form an alliance. And perhaps I, in my ecosystem, can begin to offer this. Because another very interesting thing, uh, what I wanted to bring up with this 1950 book, about chatting with people I know and so on, I ended up chatting quite a bit with this guy, with Martín, because they are people who are involved in that field and one has to be humble and understand that we are ignorant of most things in this life.
So, when you have someone in front of you who knows about the subject, because they work on it, because they know, because they like it, take advantage of it. Ask around, consult, because maybe they have a more informed opinion than someone in that niche, right? So I asked him, " And the experience?" Yes, he worked for years and years at Google, he worked for like 7 years and then he moved to Amazon.
So, well , it's very interesting how he was telling me that Amazon isn't in the race to develop a model that's super expensive to train , and that today we have three: OpenAI, ChatGPT, Anthropic, Cloud, and Google Gemini, right? Those are the three models. And if you want, very timidly, Microsoft with Copilot, which, although it's increasing its numbers and all that, is far behind in the race.
But what Microsoft is starting to do is, through Copilot, begin to integrate the other models and distribute them; that is, it receives the query from Copilot and distributes it to some other model, right? Like a supermarket of models, just like Amazon does. So, it's like it gives you the infrastructure, the cloud, so that you can come and work here with your model, but I don't develop the module or the model, I give you the possibility to set up your model here and you can use whichever one you want.
So that's quite interesting, because they're not going to create a model that's so expensive. What Tropic does use today, as Martín confirmed to us, is that Anthropic is using Amazon's artificial intelligence chips, and that's why they are related within what would be Amazon Quick, right? Yes. Exactly.
That's great, we'll see what happens with this news. Let's see if it starts to expand and open up. Because , well, obviously if Anthropic is only with Amazon, you lose everything, including the Microsoft underworld or customers. So, that's why it can go a little in other directions. The difference with Microsoft, unlike Amazon, is that Amazon isn't competing with Anthropic's model, because it doesn't have an Amazon model.
Microsoft, to some extent, yes, with Copilot. So, that's where the struggle is kind of. Well, anyway, it's quite interesting because, well, it's listening to someone who knows, right? And I tell you this because many times in life, you might have someone who works in, I don't know, now I'm thinking of a friend I have at Mercado Libre, another acquaintance I have at Irsa.
And sometimes, I don't know, you sit down, ask how everything is going, and how it was, what you all think, without having privileged information or anything like that, uh, they're just regular employees, no, no, no, nothing out of the ordinary, but it's finding out a little bit from inside some companies, so it 's very, very interesting.
Hey, let's take a look at how Microsoft's chart is doing . Well, the truth is that Microsoft was coming with a fairly significant downward correction , of 36%, even when you see that one of the seven magnificent ones is having a significant correction, that is, of this magnitude you say, well, it's a buying opportunity, but oh well.
And indeed, for me, Microsoft, at these values, I think that, well, this is not a recommendation, but rather we are doing analysis, an analysis that, well, obviously, is a logical matter. Here in the market, what we want is to try to buy low and sell high, that's the logic, obviously we're going to try to look for a financial return.
So what's going on with Microsoft? Well, it came from the main trend, which is obviously bullish, and from, let's see, approximately October 2025, the price corrected by 36%. We calculated a Fibonacci sequence starting from September 2023 because if we calculated the Fibonacci sequence starting from April 2025, the Fibonacci sequence would indeed be invalidated, as you can see.
So what we need to do here is look for other alternatives. If we start from this low, which is the precursor to this upward movement, we can see that Microsoft, or the price of Microsoft, did indeed bounce off the 079, yes, the 362. Whoever bought in this area bought in the most optimal zone of this price range.
So, what happened next? On the weekly chart, because this is a weekly chart, Microsoft develops with a very important candle, with a bullish candle, with what would be an elephant candle. And after that, the price isn't that he rejected it, but rather that it's ranging in this area. Notice that this candlestick is an imbalance, a fair value gap, which are basically orders that the market injects into the price and causes this imbalance to occur and literally go upwards.
So, while we're still in an optimal Fibonacci zone, at these prices, considering the fundamentals, the magnitude, and the consolidation that Microsoft has in the market, I don't see these as opportunities. Obviously, they're long-term opportunities, and considering it has a way to go to reach its highs—it's a 30% gain—I'd say Microsoft is interesting.
I think it's worth having in a portfolio. I've spoken with people who tell me they're tired of buying Microsoft and it not going up, and that's true. It's what I was saying at the beginning: you see Microsoft going down, it's one of the " magnificent seven" stocks, with a 36% correction, and you consider it an opportunity.
But I think that for the long term, Microsoft can be a good alternative. What do you think? I see the trade is good. You said it has a 35% upside, it corrected down 36%, and currently it's already discounted 5% of that 36%. And it still has 30-31% more to go. A 30% drop, of course. And notice that on the downside you have a fairly narrow stop loss that could be placed below the midpoint of that bullish Marubozu candlestick.
I would place it around here if I had to place a stop loss, and if we apply the Smart Money Concept, which is the analysis I use for chart analysis, if I had to look for a liquidity point, Guille, where the price could sweep me away or invalidate the analysis, I would place it around 351, or if I wanted to be more certain, I would place it below this floor, that is, around this area, around 336-340.
What I see is that if it drops below the midpoint of that large candlestick where the fair value gap is, if that means there is a fair value gap there, which will cause the price to collapse towards that support level. Well, there a concept would be applied which is IFBG, that is, we have Here's an FBG; now if an FBG occurs in the opposite direction, an IFBG, an inverse value gap, would be formed.
I actually use that for entries, uh, uh, it would indeed be invalidating what would be this bullish candle. Mhm, exactly. That's why I would put it there in the middle of that green candlestick, I would put the stop loss and wait for it to come back in that case to buy again with the stop loss adjusted there, yes, where you say.
Okay, perfect, I like it, I like it, there we are as more traders. More traders are taking shorter positions there. Hey,
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