저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Uber의 로보택시 경쟁(Tesla, Waymo) 우려로 주가가 크게 하락했으나 배달 부문(Delivery Hero 인수) 성장과 10년 데이터 우위를 근거로 장기 매수 관점 제시. P/E 15~16배, 연 22% 성장, 자유현금흐름 100억 달러 언급. 기술적으로 피보나치 매수 구간이며 전고점까지 약 33% 여력이라고 설명. 출연자 발언 중 Germán은 5년 보유 의향을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
And here, we're going to give the floor to Uber, and we're going to chat a little bit about some points as well. One of Bill Ackman's main positions was also at Uber. They did n't do it here, they presented the new Q and introduced the new features, what they added, but Uber is already here. It was already like that, yes, yes, yes, yes.
Hey, if you want, you can tell us a little bit about it now. These are some general news items, uh, that were, well, uh, Rafa's series is on Netflix, the one that, as you mentioned, is on Netflix, right? Yes, yes, yes, yes. Pay him the money, kid. Pay him the money, buy Netflix and buy the subscription and Disney Plus too, that way you'll get me to go up to the mummy, dude.
So, that's interesting, Uber, the news is that they're going to expand the robotaxis pilot program with Nissan. Uh, this is, well, starting the first steps with everything related to taxis, car taxis, and autonomous vehicles to lower costs. They're also looking at some pretty interesting new Uber segments, just like they had Uber Woman, Uber Express, Uber Deluxe, well, they're opening up different segments and now they're opening a segment for pre-teens, it's not like they're going to put them to drive, for God's sake.
[laughs] Not child labor, but they want to have a range of drivers thoroughly vetted , with criminal background checks, history checks, psychological evaluations, and so on, and that these drivers can take children aged 10 to 12 alone. It's a risky move, but hey, I'm a dad, I need to send my little girl to school, and I don't have time, with the rush and everything, I'll just grab an Uber from this new service and send the kids to school in peace.
Yeah, that's good, huh. That's good. There was also talk that maybe Uber itself has a camera to monitor parents from outside. Well, it's quite interesting, but this opens up the possibility that, hey, Uber isn't slowing down and is looking for ways to expand. Oh, another interesting point is that it bought Deliveroo, which , for those who don't know, is the German company that runs Pedidos Ya.
Yeah? He's getting into everything related to delivery, which we talked about a little bit. Yes, yes, yes. Oh, but anyway, we have a slide afterwards. Dale. Okay, let's go, let's take her, let's take her. In that sense, Uber Envíos already seems to be ready to start with all the deliveries and such.
I do n't know about Europe, it does better in Europe , but here Pedidos Ya beat it. Yes, not here, Uber here, see? This is Rappi and Pedidos Ya. Here it's Uber Eats, here it's Rappi and Pedidos Ya. Sure, it's more for transportation services , like taxis, right? I'd even say that here, uh, Mercado Libre really hit the mark, so to speak.
Yes. I mean, yes, the one that Uber Eats itself. Exactly. That's why he wants to go all in with Pedidos Ya, right? What slide do you have here, Ale? Here I brought a mini summary of, basically, the thesis that exists now in the market and that is why the market is falling so much: will robotaxis kill Uber?
Okay. Basically, the market is very concerned about how the whole robotaxis issue will grow and end up harming Uber in the medium to long term. Sorry, Ale, what kind of competition are you talking about, or in what sense, robotaxi? Uh, yes, exactly. The competition is mainly because Tesla is currently manufacturing many robotaxis cars, so what the market thinks is that Tesla can take away all this market capacity from, uh, Uber.
Okay. And there are other things that we'll see in a moment, but for example, Waymo, which is the main robotaxi service provider, provides its services to Uber. Uber had a direct exclusivity agreement with Waymo, which Waymo told them in recent months they no longer wanted to continue with, but would leave it until 2028, meaning Uber could continue using Waymo's cars, but would not be exclusive.
[clears throat] It wasn't going to be exclusive, exactly. So, that also greatly influenced market fear, and that's why Uber started to fall so much. But if we look at it, I mean, to start analyzing Uber we have to see where the money comes from, how it generates the money, basically. Here we move on to the next slide, which is basically the three production chains, the money generation chains of Uber.
The first is Uber Eats, it is the main one. And then you have the second one, which is basically Uber Delivery, which, although it's the third of these three, is the one that has grown the least. Yeah? This option still needs a lot of progress. But the one that is growing a lot is delivery. This one is growing too much and it's the one that's growing the most, in fact it's almost reaching the same numbers as mobility, which is basically travel.
We can see it in the following slide. Here we see how delivery is almost catching up to travel, which is mobility. What this is trying to tell you is that's why Uber went for Delivery Hero, because they clearly want to focus on this and also help mobility continue to grow. That's the most important thing.
But moving on to the next slide, what you see here is how demand varies from day to day of the week. To give you an idea, there is 20% more demand on Saturdays than on a Monday. Okay. So what is Bill Ackman's thesis on all of this? What he's saying is, for example, if you have a restaurant where 100 people come on Saturdays, but only 10 come on Mondays, how many waiters do you hire?
Less, clearly. So, uh, Uber wants to start buying these cars, these self-driving cars, but when they buy them they're also going to have an issue with the time they don't generate money, because on Monday the demand is fully covered, that is, if you use self-driving vehicles on Monday, there's no problem.
But on Saturday, when demand is much higher, you'll fall short, because the self-employed still won't be able to handle it. So, here you're going to need the average user, the one who's always been an Uber user, the one who logs in when he wants, works, and when he finishes working, he leaves. In contrast, with an autonomous vehicle, no, the autonomous vehicle generates an expense, a cost that is maintained through depreciation, for whatever reason you want, but it is a cost that you acquire.
In contrast, the average user who logs into the application to work does not experience these kinds of things. So, what Vilacman is saying is that basically Uber will eventually end up having a hybrid system. It will have a hybrid network where both regular, everyday users and autonomous vehicles can coexist.
In other words , they're going to try to find the optimal point. Exactly. how many autonomous cars will they have , because of course, if you buy a fleet of 20,000 autonomous cars that you have parked on Mondays, they depreciate, they amortize, that is, the car breaks down, it wears out with the simple fact of time.
Yeah, that part is pretty interesting then . What Vilacman also says his competitive advantage is that he has been in the market for over 10 years, with all the trips and all the user activity over these 10 years in every city in the world where Uber is present. So, that database is basically the competitive advantage that Uber has today against the market.
Clear. And that's basically the thesis of why Bill Ackman would be positioned at Uber, before selling it, so to speak. Clear. In other words , he feels that Tesla, even though it can offer those autonomous cars, is going to have a lot of trouble getting this database. in the market and a company that is already involved.
Exactly. That's interesting, but well, that's something to always remember, right? This works for everything. If competition increases fiercely, the company with lower revenues is the one that suffers, because you have to give in a little on that side, give up margins, and the consumer is the one who benefits.
I personally opened a position at Uber very recently, but if I ask myself, "Hey, Germán, would you still have Uber in 15 years?" No, I wouldn't have any. But in 5 years, yes. Because the time to disrupt a market, to gain ground on the leader, which today is Uber, because many times the quick test to know who the leader is is, "Hey, order a car." Uber.
"Hey, put on a TV series for me." Netflix. It's like the speed—already ingrained as a brand—is a very strong point. It seems kind of abstract and all, but being ingrained in people's minds is already a huge achievement. And it's a company that continues to grow in several aspects, including delivery, which is very interesting, as it almost encompasses everything related to mobility, and it's also involved in all types of shipping and other services.
So, these values, which already have a P/E ratio of 15 or 16, I like them better. I'm quite a fan of price- earnings, aren't I? From the price- benefit ratio, from this ratio, because that's what the market evaluates, how many times I pay the profits. And the 15, the 16 tells you much more, it tells you, you're no longer paying as if it were a startup, you're no longer paying as a company that grows at 40, at 30% quarterly.
You are paying like a mature company. And that's where I say, maybe it's a mature company, but it has room to grow a little, at least until the competition starts to come in. And it also grows 22% annually, I mean, that 's a lot, it generates $10 billion in free cash flow , which is quite a lot. Okay, so, it's really interesting how that can continue to grow, isn't it?
And if we look at the graph a little, how is Uber doing? Okay, yes, yes, uh, I think it's likely to be seen on the chart, mainly because we're at optimal buying prices, so what you were saying, Ger, about the position you entered and holding it for 5 years, uh, indeed at these values, seems accurate to me , to be redundant, because if we draw a Fibonacci from, let's say we take this point, which seems to be the beginning of what was the last upward movement, we draw it to the maximum, as we always do with Fibonacci, and we find ourselves literally in the optimal Fibonacci buying zone range.
Although we've overcome it a little, we're still at these levels. The truth is that I find these Fibo values interesting. If we move on to the daily chart, we have this latest rise which comes with the balance. Honestly, I'd like you to correct it a little more to make a slightly more detailed entry.
If we draw a Fibonacci retracement of this last movement, we find ourselves in the 03 zone. What does the 03 zone mean? And keep this in mind because it's an additional piece of Fibonacci data, which generally, when the price is already showing intentions of going up and bounces off the 03, means that from this movement onwards the trend that has been accompanying the movement will continue.
Note, this doesn't mean that it's coming to look for the values of 079, 060, but notice that it also has some gaps here perhaps to be filled. Obviously, for optimal reasons, I would like it to correct a little more, but it seems that this last movement that comes with the balance comes with intentions of force.
Ideally, I'd like to see it a little lower to enter, but if we go back to the weekly chart and base it on the range we're in right now, it's an interesting price, especially considering that we still have 33% to go before reaching the all-time highs. That's quite a bit, and this is also in dollars; it would be 33% in dollars.
So, Uber, honestly, from a technical analysis perspective, I like it, I like it, and if we combine that analysis with the indicator of the... what's it like? Regarding the intention and the different timeframes, notice that everything is in green. So, honestly, if I had to choose between buying, selling, or keeping Uber, I would go for buying.
I like Uber, to be honest, it seems interesting for the long term at these prices.
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