저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
그린블랫의 책 『The Little Book That Still Beats the Market』을 소개하는 교육용 영상. 껌 판매 아이 사례로 미래 수익과 현재 가격의 관계를 설명하고, 무위험수익률(10년물 국채 약 6%) 기준, 시장 가격과 내재가치의 괴리(Mr. Market 비유), 마법공식(높은 자본수익률+낮은 이익수익률)을 다룸. 단기 성과 부진 가능성과 인내의 중요성을 강조. 특정 종목이나 시장에 대한 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Okay, let's get into it. We're doing a deep dive today into some really uh practical ideas from Joel Greenblat's book, The Little Book That Still Beats the Market. Right. And our mission really is to pull out the core stuff, the key takeaways you can actually use to think differently about investing, maybe spot some opportunities.
Exactly. And Greenblat kicks things off with this great little story. Uh there's this kid, Jason's, sixth grade, I think. Yeah. and he's got this amazing business selling chewing gum sticks at school. Buys a pack for 25 cents, sells each stick for 25. Oh, it's like what, a dollar profit per pack. Pretty good margins for a kid.
Totally. And his son Ben figures out Jason could actually make like over $4,000 by the time he finishes high school. But then the dad asks the killer question. How much would you pay right now for half of that future business? And Ben's first thought is, okay, half the profits, maybe $1,500. But then he catches himself, right?
Like, wait a second. I pay $1,500 today to hopefully get that back over six years. Plus, what if someone else starts selling gum? There's risk. Exactly. So, the dad helps them see the price needs to be way lower. They land on something like uh $450. Yeah. Something like that. And that's the whole point Greenblat's making right up front.
You value a business on future earnings, sure, but you absolutely have to think about the price you pay today compared to those earnings. It's such a simple way to frame it and that leads into the book's purpose, right? Greenblast's basically trying to give regular investors a well a simpler way, a straightforward method.
Yeah. Yeah. Based on fundamental ideas because let's face it, properly valuing a whole business that's intimidating for most people. So, he creates this magic formula. Not actual magic obviously. No, not at all. It's just a tool, a system to help find potentially good companies without needing a finance degree.
Okay, so let's dig into the big ideas. First one, investing isn't the same as just saving, right? Sticking money under the mattress doesn't make it grow. Investing means putting it to work for you, like earning interest in a bank or maybe getting coupon payments from bonds. Exactly. And Greenblat uses the 10-year US government bond as a benchmark.
He puts a number on it in the book, like say 6% as the risk-free rate. Okay. 6% risk-free. What's the big deal there? Well, that 6% becomes your absolute minimum expectation for any investment over the long run. Think about it. Ah, right. If you can get 6% pretty much guaranteed from the government, then why would you risk your money on something like Jason's gum business unless you expected to earn significantly more than 6%, you need to be compensated for taking that extra risk.
Makes total sense. Okay, so idea two touches on stock prices versus actual business value. They're not always the same thing, are they? Not even close sometimes. He points out how stocks of huge companies, IBM, GM, whoever can, you know, double or get cut in half in just one year, which is kind of wild.
Does the real value of General Motors actually change by 50% in 12 months? Probably not. Almost certainly not. And this is where he brings in Benjamin Graham's brilliant analogy, Mr. Market. Ah, yes, Mr. Market. Your slightly unstable business partner. Uhhuh. Yeah, exactly. He shows up every day totally manic depressive.
Some days he's euphoric. Buy my shares. They're worth a fortune. Other days he's miserable. Please take these shares off my hands for pennies. The key being you don't have to trade with him. You absolutely don't. You can just ignore his crazy mood swings. But his irrationality is where the opportunity lies.
So when he's depressed and offering you a piece of a good business super cheap, that might be your chance to buy. And when he's over the moon and offering way too much, maybe time to sell or just do nothing. Exactly. It's about recognizing when price disconnects from value, which leads right into the third big idea, the core of the magic formula itself, which is find good businesses at bargain prices.
Okay, let's break that down. What does he mean by good? Good means the business earns a high return on the actual capital it needs to operate. He uses a specific ratio, EBIT, divided by tangible capital employed. Okay, EBIT, that's earnings before interest in taxes. Operating profit basically, right?
And tangible capital employed is like the real stuff, factories, equipment, inventory needed to run the business minus fluff like goodwill or extra cash sitting around. So the ratio tells you how efficiently the business generates profit from its core operational assets. Yeah. Avoiding distortions from debt or taxes.
Precisely. And then bargain price. That means paying a low price relative to those earnings. In the ratio for that, he uses EBIT again, but this time divided by enterprise value. Enterprise value, that's the stock market value plus all its debt, kind of the total buyout price. Yep. So, EBIT divided by enterprise value gives you the pre-tax earnings yield on what it would cost to buy the whole company.
It's a more complete view of cheapness than just price to earnings. So, the formula ranks companies on both high return on capital, good quality, and high earnings yield, cheap price. Finding the sweet spot, the best combo of both. But, and this is a huge but, he stresses. Oh, yeah. This isn't a get-richquick thing.
The formula, while successful long-term in his studies, can underperform the market for like years sometimes, which sounds tough to stick with. It is tough, and that's exactly why the opportunity doesn't just get arbitrageed away. Most people bail when it doesn't work for a year or two. Mr. Market's moods wear you down.
You need conviction. So, wrapping it all up, the big takeaway seems to be focus on buying good businesses when Mr. Market offers them cheaply and have the patience, the long-term view to stick with it, ignoring the daily noise. Yeah. He even says the truly hard part might not be the formula itself, right?
It might be figuring out what you'll do with the money if it actually works like it has historically. It's a fun thought experiment, isn't it? What would you do?
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