저자: Yahoo Finance · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 연말까지 시장의 가장 중요한 변수로 Anthropic의 IPO를 꼽는다. 투자자들은 AI 성장의 지속 가능성과 Anthropic의 시장 점유율을 묻고 있으며, 엔비디아 가이던스나 연준 금리 변수가 연말 분위기를 흔들 수 있다고 본다. 최근 Cerebras와 SpaceX가 공모가 아래에서 거래되는 사례를 들어, 하락장에서는 상장 후 수급이 약해 IPO 일정이 영향을 받을 수 있다는 우려가 나온다. 또한 최신 모델 출시에서 실제 매출로 이어지기까지 시차가 있으며, 기업용 시장에서는 OpenAI가 앞서간다는 평가도 소개된다. 전반적으로 AI 성장의 다음 단계를 누가 증명하느냐가 핵심이라는 진단이다.
다듬은 글
The only thing that matters before the end of this year is Anthropic's IPO. Nvidia, as she said, will say what it says. I think they have been keeping up with the market for some time now. First Nvidia moved to hyperscalers, and now to all other parts of the infrastructure. They will say what they will say.
They have orders until 2028. People are trying to secure data center capacity by 2028. So it would be strange if they said something different than what they were supposed to say. I think what's really important is what we talked about, which is what happens with the Anthropic IPO. And people looking at the Anthropic IPO are paying attention to two things.
First, do you think the growth story of artificial intelligence is sustainable not only today but also in the future? And the second question is, do you think they will have a significant market share of this AI, this AI story and growth? These are two questions that every investor asks their investment committee every day before an IPO .
And there are all these other components that are in their S-1, their amended S-1. Numbers are numbers. In reality, it is the value that will determine whether Anthropic is worth such a high price or not, it is people's perspective on these two issues. So, I think that's something everyone should ask themselves.
And you've seen in the public markets that there's concern about whether Anthropic has the ability to capture that market share, or people want to see more evidence of where that growth factor is going to come for AI over the next year or a few years after that. So, I think that's what's really important in this story today–what's the next stage of AI growth?
Can we prove it, whether it's Anthropic, OpenAI, or someone else? And I think it's this story that needs to be developed. I think all of these thoughts are very valid, but if Nvidia lowers rates and the Fed raises them given what's going on right now, it could ruin my holiday season, just like what she said earlier.
But, but, but also, before I go into more detail, I'll quickly point out that we've already gotten Nvidia's earnings reports, the hyperscalers. Hyperscalers have already reported. We know what will happen. So, TSMC also reported. ASML, like all of us, has already received so much confirmation regarding reporting that if Nvidia lowers rates , what will suddenly happen?
What new information does Jensen see that the rest of the ecosystem doesn't, which can cause mass fear because it doesn't correlate with everything else we see. So, I don't give them a 1% chance of missing. No, we're not saying that will happen. But if it happened, yes. Yes. It would be something like: yes, unheard of .
But William, I'm wondering if there's a chance that Anthropic will be delayed compared to yesterday? I think if you see the market continue to move over the next few days, or if today is an indicator of where the market is going to go , I think it would be very difficult for them to get out. I'm not saying that Anthropic isn't a great company and they're not innovating a lot in AI, but I mean the public markets, they have to accept that and they want to be able to pay that price for Anthropic.
And I think people are asking this very question: Is this growth in AI sustainable? And is it computationally driven, will they be able to get enough access to computation, will it be limited, will they have the market share that they say they will have. I think these are the questions that everyone is trying to ask.
And what do you think is the chance that Anthropic , that is, will try to turn the Titanic around? During a backstage discussion, someone must have warned the team that they would be holding an IPO right after the midterm elections. I don't know. Hmm, but I agree that it will be very difficult. Now the question is whether the sell-off will continue, and, you know , it will be difficult to go public.
November. Sorry? So, okay. I'm just clarifying. Are you saying that it will be difficult to go public or difficult to monitor? No, it will be difficult to go public. I mean, you know, I think they're going public. Yes. Of course. I understand you, but I think it's all systems ahead. Sorry, I interrupted you.
Continue. Yes. Yes, it will be difficult because multipliers are currently being reduced. And I think investors, private investors, some of them may exit the market on day one. And if the market is like that, and the probability of acceptance is not very high for good reception in the public markets, would you really want to do an IPO if you could exit that day?
I mean, I'm not entirely sure they'll be ready for this. Well, I also just look at recent achievements. Cerebrus is about 50% below their IPO price, uh, 80% below their post-IPO high, I think. SpaceX is trading below their IPO price. I know this for sure from my friends who work in this industry. If you get a price of 1.5 trillion and close below that price after the IPO, there are many funds that don't touch the stock.
They won't get exposure. They are mispriced and they just have a rule in their fund that they can't actually buy these stocks if they are below their IPO. So, I think there 's some game-play here where if the AI continues to fade, which is right now I see QQQ going down 6%, so if it continues at this rate for a few more days, you know what?
Fridays are never trend-changing days . If we don't bounce back today, tomorrow will be red. Nobody wants to hold it before the weekend. And now I'll send you the week of your IPO. I could do this, I could be wrong, um, but as I think, I think Anthropic is bigger than the market, and I think Anthropic will go public.
Well, you guys know better than me, but I just can't see them, I understand the math, but they're bigger than the market, and they're going public, and you have no say in it. If you were the CEO of Anthropic, would you go public? That's what I'm saying. Let's focus on Dario , because Dario is something like N one.
It's like he doesn't care at all about public opinion. He's a bit of a middle finger to artificial intelligence. So, like, you're right. Maybe you just don't care what you have to say? Yes, that's right. He looks a lot like Karp. Uh, Karp gives out a little more. Dario is afraid, but yes. So, I think they are a bit similar to each other, but he is unpredictable.
Who knows. Yes. And again, it's not a matter of if they go public, it's a matter of when they go public, right? Of course, yes. And actually, you're not going to like this , but I have an analogy. Of course. OK. Anthropic is to Coca-Cola what OpenAI is to Pepsi. Am I wrong? No. I think you are 100% wrong.
I think when you look at the complexity of what OpenAI is doing... Okay. Yes. Wait, I think I understand this analogy. I think if you had asked me 6 months ago how I felt about private markets, you would have been right. I think the private markets felt that OpenAI was losing momentum a little bit and Anthropic was just eating its lunch.
And I think today you see that narrative starting to change almost completely, right? OpenAI has this amazing consumer access tool . And when you see how news spreads, they have this wonderful distribution channel with the dot, their ability to spread the dots to act as a personal agent. Anthropic does not have such a channel.
This is not their strong point . That's not what they did. They were focused on the enterprise. And now you see the message that OpenAI's enterprise business is bigger than their consumer business, right? So , they clearly win on the side of enterprises. What I think everyone is missing in the public markets, where we get a lot of trust in the private markets; The question is whether there is this second stage of AI development that everyone needs to get used to over the next few years, is that when these big companies that develop language models release models, they will release the smartest and most expensive one, then the cheapest one that can perform 80-90% of the intelligence, and so on.
And here you get a very cheap model that can do this kind of work efficiently, right? And if you look at everyone else who's building on this, they'll start by building the most expensive thing, but then they have to figure out how to make their app work with something cheaper . So there's this gap between the smartest model that comes out and what ultimately gets created by businesses, sold to everyone else, and actually generates revenue.
I think people are now seeing how Anthropic and OpenAI have abandoned these amazing models, and you're seeing how everyone is now going back to their R& D, building on that and releasing products, and starting to release those products. Right. We just haven't seen any revenue coming in from these SaaS companies in the enterprise.
This is evident in startups that are developing very quickly and capturing the market. We see companies that started with 5 million in annual revenue at the beginning of the year and by the end of the year have almost 150-200 million in annual revenue. And if you saw that for any of these SaaS companies, a new product, people would go crazy trying to buy it, right?
So, this is the action, the price action, that we see in the private markets. And that lag that you see between the release of the latest model and, ultimately, I think a significant portion of the revenue that's generated later is because people are building on that, using that , because they want a lower price for intelligence.
댓글 0