저자: SumitBhardwaj · 외국인
요약 보기
콩코드바이오텍(Concord Biotech)은 발효 기반 면역억제제(타크롤리무스·마이코페놀레이트) API의 글로벌 리더로, 마진이 40% 안팎으로 높고 CDMO 성장 잠재력이 크다고 평가. Helix 사모투자자 지분 매도 압력은 소화된 상태이며 Waluthera 플랜트 상업화로 볼륨 성장 중반대 가이던스 제시. 밸류에이션은 공정 가격 수준. 주요 리스크는 USFDA 수입경보와 원재료(전력 등) 비용 상승. 단기 매매는 기술적 분석 및 거래량 필터 필요.
다듬은 글
Hello Investors and Traders Welcome to my channel SB Stocks. I am your award winning sub broker Sumit Bhardwaj from Motilal Oswal. So today we will talk about another great company and this company is from the pharma sector. So friends, there are thousands of pharma companies in India, out of which if we talk about India Pharma sector, then about 247 companies are listed.
Right now. I said thousands who are also unlisted. So if we talk about listed companies, the companies whose names we mostly take or discuss or see in discussions are Sun Pharma, DV Labs, SPLA, we all know the names of all these. But the company we are talking about today does not follow chemistry in pharma, it follows biology.
And one more thing is that this company was considered a hidden gem in the portfolio of the late legendary Guru Ji of all of us, respected Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Ji Sir. Why? Because it does not make normal medicines. This company does complex fermentation. Now what is this complex fermentation? We will understand further in the video.
And it manufactures APIs for complex fermentation. Ok? So, this is a technology in which the entry barrier is so high that even China is not able to compete with it easily. Ok? Now you will debate on this, comment on it, keep doing it. But the truth is what it is. You can verify as you all know that the publicly available data or whatever little data is there is real data.
Ok? Some of our data which we get as a broker to study on our terminal, we get some benefit from it, 510% but 90-95% data is publicly available. Disclaimer before telling the name of the company, this video is just for education purpose not a tip advice consult your SEBI approved advisor before taking any kind of investment decisions whether it is of ₹1 or ₹100 or ₹100 crores it is okay because you earn money after hard work start using it with a little prudence if you make a mistake unknowingly that is okay, when will you make a mistake intentionally, so as I have just called a new dialogue this year, look at the sector before the stock.
Look at your portfolio first by sector. Build a portfolio first. Then go find the sector and what kind of portfolio you have created. What kind of sectors should be there in it? Because if sectors are chosen then companies will come automatically. Butt We first go to the back of the stock. So stop chasing stocks.
Go after the sector and portfolio. So the company we are talking about is just for education purpose so that you as an investor can take good decisions. That is Concode Biotech. Its share price remains quite volatile because it is a high volatile beta company. Price to earnings ratios are forcing investors to exit as there is a slight premium.
But what are the business fundamentals saying? That is what we will understand. Is this correction a buying opportunity or a trap? So let's decode the data without any kind of unnecessary hype. So first of all let us see what has happened inside the company in the last six to eight months? What happened at Kancode Biotech?
The biggest narrative change in this has been that of supply overhang. Meaning, the private equity investors of Helix since the IPO. Now what is Helix? Please search it. Bapu is a people. He was selling his goods. Meaning he was selling his stake. So when any big investor sells his stock, no matter how much he controls, it is big according to us.
Meaning he will say that even if I sell half a percent, it will still become worth several thousand crores. So what happens because of this is that the price crashes or in our language gets suppressed. Ok? So whatever the result may be at that time, whatever the business of the company may be, that effect definitely comes for a time being.
For example, if a storm comes, the weak trees will fall first. Others may or may not fall but they will definitely shake. So, whenever these things happen, whether it is at the market level, whether it is at the sector level, whether it is at the rules level, or whether it is the entry or exit of big investors, then there are different verticals and our job is to understand those verticals and take decisions, not to panic on any one news, nor to panic on any one useless thing, or to make up imaginary plans in the mind that I feel like this, I should not invest anything.
We have to work according to the data. Now basically the pressure of the helix has been absorbed. It has been digested. So what is happening now on the business side is that their Walthera plant is being commercialized. It is not completed yet but is being commercialized. We will gradually start seeing its impact in the revenue numbers.
The management has given clear guidance that volume growth will be in the mid-teens, which will be considered a strong signal in this tough market. Ok? Let's talk about core business economics or MOT because Ramdev Sir, our Guru Ji, says that it is a sin to even look at a business without USP or MOT.
Ok? So what is their motive? They have a mote. Before understanding this business, it is important to understand what normal pharma companies do in this business? She does chemical synthesis. Meaning, medicines are made by mixing chemicals. Now what does this company Concode Biotech do ? It does fermentation.
Now what does fermentation mean? That it makes medicine using bacteria and fungi and not by using chemicals. Even if chemicals are present, they would be in small quantities. Now what is the difference in this? The difference is that a simple thing, one thing out of 100 things, though there are many differences but the thing which is useful for us is that fermentation is very difficult, it is not easy because if the temperature changes even by 0.1°, that is, if any mistake is made even by 0.01%, then the entire batch will get spoiled and this is their motive because they have specialization in this.
Like do you know what I specialize in? Tell me by commenting. Because there are very few companies in the world which operate on a commercial scale. Now if I take the name wrong, Doctor Sahib, if someone is watching, please don't feel bad brother because I am not a doctor. No, I am not a pharma expert.
But now this name itself was asked to Ramdev Sir that why do you stay away from the pharma sector ? He says their names are strange. I do n't understand salt chemicals. So I am going to face the same problem. But let's face it, there are very few companies in the world that can manufacture immunosuppressants, i.e.
organ transplant medicines, on a commercial scale. Ok? I will not say it again. Listen to it on repeat. So Concode Biotech is today the global leader in the APIs of Taclimus and Mycophenolate. Now you can also Google these two words. You can ask Chat GBT itself what is Tolimus and Microfen Mycophenolate?
What role does it play in our company Conc Code Biotech and what is its importance to us as an investor? If you want me to tell you its details in detail then please comment, both these names are Temomis and Mycophenolate, now this company exports to more than 70 countries. They have no competition with local players.
So if you compare this company with local Indian companies, pharma companies then you are doing it wrong. You have to compare it with global joint. Global is not from small companies but from big giants. Now let's see what the numbers of financial reality say? Because the market works with numbers, data and percentages.
Nothing happens by being emotional. Loss occurs due to emotionality, selling in fear and buying in forms. What margins say for Concad Biotech is that while normal API companies struggle for 15 to 20% ad margins. Concode Biotech consistently reports mid margins around 40%. Not a tip advice. Now what this number is screaming is that they have prying power.
Their customers, who are their customers, the formulation companies, will not be able to find their options quickly because the options are limited. Ok? Secondly, the cash flow company is doing heavy capex for expansion. Still, internal accruals are strong. There is no major issue of debt as the balance sheet is clean.
But note one thing that is API versus formulation mix. The company is now gradually moving towards formulations. What does formulations mean? Finished Medicines. The medicines we take are called formulations. Finished medicines or tablets. She's shifting towards him too. So this is another high revenue segment.
But here the margins may be a little diluted. Initially, if you are thinking of investing in this company or this sector, then it is important to pay attention to this trend also. Now let us look at management and capital allocation. So where is management's focus? Management's main focus is on the CDMO business.
CDMO means Contract Manufacturing. Big global companies are coming to Concode and asking them to make this complex molecule for them. Meaning he is bringing the idea. They make it and he is a champion in it. So, this segment is certainly small right now but it has the highest growth potential because there are less repurchase options.
The management has also started dividend payout. But their main focus right now is on reinvestment. Because the money they are earning is being invested back into the business so that capacity and expansion can be taken to the next level so that there is more growth. Now let's talk about valuation. So now this stock or company is expensive or cheap.
So see, you will never get Concd Biotech cheap in terms of PE. I am not talking about the price. I am talking. Price to Earnings. Why? Because when there is 40% margin and high entry barrier, the market automatically gives premium price to such companies. Because they know its future value. If you compare it with a normal chemical company, it will seem expensive.
Ok? But if you compare it with a specialty biotech company, the valuation will automatically get justified. So currently the valuation is not in the euphoria zone. Deep but not deep value either. Both things are there. Meaning neither here nor there. Basically, it is fairly priced for the growth it promises.
If there is growth in the business, the share price will automatically follow. But if you are one of those who only look at the price then God bless you. We now look at risk. Again, enough good things have been said. Although I have said less good things here today. You have mixed things up a lot. But what have I done?
My job is to tell you the data. So the first risk is the biggest risk, like any other pharma companies that is the risk of USFDA regulatory, their business is also export heavy. Like inside the US and Europe. So if tomorrow there is an import alert from USFDA on their plant then this stock can fall by 20 to 30% in a single day.
This is the biggest problem in the entire pharma sector. Which we had seen just 2 months ago that how pharma stocks had fallen due to a statement made by our favorite President and not just one but many. Secondly, like every company, a considerable amount of power and raw materials are required for fermentation of raw material cost.
So if the input cost increases, then it may be a little difficult for the company to sustain its 40% abide margin. What now for investors? So first of all Concd Biotech is not a trading stock. Ok? It is a niche proxy play in information complex generic medicines with a massive technical base. So now what you have to do is not just this stock.
If you want to trade any stock, then make sure it is in the universe of Nifty 500. Because that is the best way to check if it is in volume. Volume does not mean there will be a liquidity issue. What is a liquidity issue is that today you want to buy but it is not available, you want to sell but it is not getting sold.
So the best way is to not go outside Nifty 500. Secondly, make sure that if you want to go beyond that or do not want to go to Nifty 500, then go to any screener and apply daily volume. If there are at least 2 lakh to 1.5 lakh shares tradable every day, then think of trading on that. Now you can do scalping, intraday, BTST and swing trading just by looking at the charts.
You won't need to hear the entire story I've told you. But you will have to be an expert in technical charts. I am not even talking about this company. I am not talking about this stock. I am giving a general overview. But if you are thinking of doing positional trading or swing trading with a small amount of heavy amount then you will have to understand the fundamentals and business overview.
And if you are a long term investor then fundamental ratios come later, first understand the basic business sector of the company, then understand the MOT and then again the same four things. What to buy, when to buy, how much to buy, when to sell. Whether you trade or invest and after that if you are an investor then for right portfolio allocation you will make a portfolio of 5 stocks, 10 stocks, 15 stocks or 20 stocks, if you are making more than 20 then God is your master and if you want to become a trader in any stock or any asset or index or commodity then risk to reward is very very crucial that how much loss will you incur, how much profit will you make, all these things are there and if you still have any doubt then tell me by commenting and if you say that I do n't have time, I will take advice, so see I am not saying that you should work with me, whoever you work with, just make sure that they talk about your benefit and not just their broker and advisor should not be greedy that their fees should be increased, their brokerage should be increased, they should also see what is the condition of the investor because see in good times everything is good.
But God, when bad times come, the real thing becomes clear. Like what happened with gold and silver, we are standing shoulder to shoulder with our investors and our traders even today. So you have to see whether your broker, your ad advisor or whoever is associated with you in this stock market thing or investment.
Is he with you? Or they only call you when they have something to gain. We will take care of all these things. May God bless you all. Tell us how you liked the video by commenting. Please comment on which topic the next video should be made and subscribe to the channel. See you in the next video ending the video with a final disclaimer that this video is just purely for education purpose.
Not a tip advice. Consult your SEBI approved advisor before taking any kind of investment decisions. Thank you, take care.
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