Tom Lee: Equity markets will make their bottom this month

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Tom Lee은 기술주가 소프트웨어 포함해 잘 버텼고, 고유가는 성장주 선호를 높여 미국 증시에 상대적으로 유리하다고 주장. 이번 달 증시 바닥을 칠 것으로 봄. 프라이빗 크레딧 문제는 금융주엔 타격이지만 GFC 같은 체계적 위기는 아니라고 봄. Kathy Wood(ARK)는 공포 속 변동성 큰 성장주 매수 기회를 강조하고 AI 상용화 성과(Anthropic, OpenAI ARR)를 근거로 듦.

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01. Let's welcome in Kathy Wood, CEO and CIO of ARK Invest, and Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, chair of Bitmain immersion technologies, and a CNBC contributor. Welcome to both of you. Tom, you want to just start with your thoughts on the markets? Why is tech not participating this time?

02. They've been a ballast so far in this sell-off. Tech in general has actually held up really well, including software. It makes sense to us, and I'm going to make a counterintuitive statement: higher oil is relatively good for US equities. One, the US is a net producer of oil. And as people worry about global growth slowing because of high oil, they want to own growth stocks, which makes them want to own the US stock market, because it is a growth index, especially the Mag Seven and software.

03. I actually think this makes sense. I've heard the earlier conversation today, and I'm also in the camp that we're making our bottom this month for the equity markets.

04. Okay. We've got Jefferies down 7%, Deutsche down about that much. A lot of people are trying to look into where these private credit exposures might be. What would you say about that narrative right now, Tom?

05. Private credit has been a problem for some time, and it has been increasingly revealing, as Jamie Dimon said, more cockroaches. I don't think it's as systematic as we might fear. I know people carry the Lehman hammer and think this is a repeat of the GFC, but there are a lot of reasons it isn't systematic. One is simply size: the market isn't nearly as large. Also, things that look like credit stress aren't really signaling the way they did in 2008. So I think it's hurting financials right now, but I don't think it's a broader problem for the market or the economy.

06. Kathy, if I'm not mistaken, you're looking to help the public get into more early-stage growth companies. Last week Robinhood did something similar; they're IPOing a venture fund. This comes against a backdrop where a lot of growth companies have ended up in private markets and don't go public anymore. I know the SEC has a big push to change that, but one of the problems, as you and others know, is that sometimes they don't perform that well. It's very risky. Could you comment on the current state of affairs? Private markets have had losses, and people in public markets don't want losses, but they want access to growth companies. Who can they feel confident will help them get the best of the bunch?

07. Yes. It's very interesting to be managing money at this time. I was a very early portfolio manager in the tech and telecom bubble, and it's night and day. There was no fear back then, and today there's extreme fear. I understand some of the reasons for that, but I believe, and this fits with what Tom just said, that when we look back maybe at the end of this year, the market will be characterized as climbing a wall of worry. And now, with the war, there is another reason, another few bricks being put into that wall.

08. This is a really good time to pick up stocks that might be more volatile. Volatility in our world doesn't measure risk as much as it measures uncertainty. The new technology is evolving today, and the way ARK does its research on these technologies, to understand how they will scale and who is leading the pack, puts us in a very good position. This is a technology revolution, and we are not in an AI hype cycle. We think it has miles to go. And of course, consider the source: it's all we do. But we're beginning to see astounding results at companies like Anthropic and OpenAI in terms of their ARR.