저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
멍거 관련 영상으로 연준 자산매입 축소와 과도한 유동성이 초인플레이션과 금융 붕괴를 부를 수 있다는 경고가 핵심이다. 연준의 수조 달러 규모 자산매입 축소 시작을 언급하며 과도한 돈 찍기가 시장을 불안정하게 만들었다고 진행자가 주장한다. 인플레이션이 기업의 비용 전가를 가능하게 해 물가가 쉽게 원래 수준으로 돌아오지 않으며, 금리는 인하보다 인상 가능성이 크다고 본다. 금리 인상으로 멀티플이 줄어들 가능성이 높아 실질 수익률 확보가 어려워지고, 주식 밸류에이션이 이미 고점 수준이라는 진단이다. 주택담보대출 금리가 6% 이상으로 올라 부동산 업계 감원이 시작되었고 비상장 기업 가치도 하락 중이라고 언급한다. 멍거는 투기적 거래와 거품이 결국 터질 것이며 많은 투자자가 자산을 제대로 모른 채 매수한다고 경고한다고 소개한다. 과도한 통화 발행은 독재자의 등장과 바이마르 공화국식 붕괴로 이어질 수 있고, 일본은 예외일 수 있다는 점을 강조한다. 재정 통제 상실이 완화적 통화정책의 근본 문제라고 하며, 달러 가치가 장기적으로 0에 수렴할 수 있다는 전망을 소개한다. 종목·지수 방향에 대한 구체적 가격 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to Main Street informant in this channel we provide information related to wealth money Power Finance business and economics in today's video we will talk about the wealthy man's predictions on the economic crisis the world is facing and the details on how things would look like when everything collapses Charlie Munger has a net worth of about 2 billion dollars and is the right-hand man of Warren Buffett in Berkshire Hathaway in particular when it comes to investing the psychology of affluent people reason and life experience he is a genuinely smart man who is unquestionably worth listening to Monger issues a warning about the biggest inflationary bubble ever breaking and offers his predictions for how it will play out according to Munger we're on the verge of serious economic catastrophe and the repercussions could be greater than what Paul Walker experienced in the 1970s before we go into how it all going to play out please help me out by clicking the like subscribe and hit the notification Bell okay so the Federal Reserve is beginning to wind down its multi-trillion dollar asset purchase program which has been in existence essentially non-stop since the financial crisis which is the cause of the recent upheaval to rock the U.S financial markets many people have criticized the initiative accusing the bed of printing too much money too quickly and causing Global Financial markets to become unstable by maintaining ultra low interest rates in the past severe inflation has occurred whenever officials have turned to money printing to try and ease financial problems prices start to climb sharply and this are not merely temporary Rises as businesses have learned they can pass on increased expenses to customers who are more than willing to pay the additional cost as a result it is less probable that prices will eventually return to their previous levels in the foreseeable future interest rates are much more likely to rise than fall which will intensify the gravitational pull on market prices in fact there is a strong likelihood that interest rates will be pushed noticeably higher if inflation heats up near its present four decade high levels the potential to generate impressive real returns is becoming more difficult because multiple contraction is more likely than multiple expansion due to the likelihood of rising interest rates in response to Rising inflation the high inflation rate Rises the bar for corporate growth and dividend payments to generate a real return net of inflation Equity valuations are already at no speed levels and the inflation rate is skyrocketing the effects of increasing interest rates on the Home Market are already apparent the 30-year mortgage rate has nice and above six percent and businesses in the real estate industry have started laying off employees in preparation for a decline in demand as investors re-evaluate their development potential and other options the value of private companies has also started to drop what will transpire once the FED starts to tighten can only be predicted with time over the last 10 years there have been numerous additional similar warnings Monger is so extensively read that his opinions on these subjects are usually noteworthy the multi-billionaire investor reads and analyzes many subjects non-stop Monger is familiar enough with the past to see how historical economic processes might be relevant to the present and future much like the founder of Bridgewater Ray dalio who has utilized history to create several models of how current day economic problems may play out Monger said that trouble is near he thinks this talk Market has frequently become a speculative gamble that is disconnected from actual stock values bubbles are produced as a result and they will finally burst Monger believes that a large group of people do not even know what they're buying and all they do is side coats off the ticker generally this does not help with the current situation like what we have seen in past recessions according to his assessment this are the possible things that could happen when the crash approaches money printing will cause serious danger the inflation will give rise to dictators and the negative effects of the easy monetary policy politicians and the Federal Reserve believe that the simplest way to solve immediate problems is to Simply print more money obviously there are long-term implications involved we recall what happened in Germany in the past when Weimar Republic just kept renting until everything collapsed it is a serious matter and very dangerous Monger emphasizes that Japan may have survived thanks to its massive money printing Monger emphasizes that Japan could have gotten but with its massive quantity of money printing but he claims that they might only be the exception and not the rule going forward additionally it should be mentioned that Adolf Hitler one of the deadliest dictators in history Rose to power partly as a result of the Weimer inflation he ultimately contributed to the second world War the worst Global battle in human history Monger anticipates witnessing something similar in the near future that and inflation-gridden dictator will make promises to protect the population and return wealth but this will ultimately result in a more terrible situation since government spending generates easy debt without significantly raising taxes it benefits from Easy monetary policy Monger cautions that the loss of fiscal control by the government is the fundamental issue with easy monetary policy this indicates that we are not just preparing for the economical Labs but also dabbling in it according to Monger the value of the US dollar will probably zero out over the course of The Next Century it's not quite as absurd as it seems since the Federal Reserve was established the value of the US dollar has decreased by nearly 96 percent since the United States abandoned the gold standard in 1971 the value of the dollar has fallen by 86 percent based on historical Tendencies of declining purchasing power his predictions is almost certain to come true his warnings frequently focus on inflation and the political instability it brings about this ought to serve as a warning about the long-term risk that inflation poses do you think these predictions are likely to happen let me know in the comments if you learned something valuable please make sure to like subscribe and hit the notification Bell for more contents like this you can check out more videos on the channel and share it will help my videos reach more people see you in the next one
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