저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
그랜섬은 현재 주식·주택·채권이 역사적으로 과대평가된 '슈퍼버블'의 마지막 단계에 있으며, 큰 폭락(주식 최대 50% 하락 가능)이 임박했다고 경고한다. 버블은 형성→조정→베어마켓 랠리→펀더멘털 악화 후 폭락의 단계를 거치며, 현재 2022년 조정을 지나 베어마켓 랠리 국면으로 본다. 과거 2000년, 1929년, 1972년 사례를 근거로 든다. 경제는 강한 GDP, 저인플레, 높은 이익률, 낮은 실업률처럼 정점에서 항상 완벽해 보인다는 점을 강조한다. 거시 리스크로 원자재 충격, 연준의 매파 기조, 급격한 금리 상승, 긴축 재정을 지목하며 소비자·기업 신뢰지수가 역사적 저점을 시험 중이라고 본다. 기술 섹터에서는 채용 둔화와 감원 증가가 나타나고 CEO들이 경기침체에 대비하고 있다. 장기 구조 리스크로 노동 공급 부족, 비료 부족, 토양 침식과 담수 부족, 아프리카 인구 증가, 기후변화에 따른 가뭄·고온·산불 동시 발생을 제시하며 장기 생존 가능성을 위협한다고 본다. 우크라이나 전쟁으로 식량·에너지·비료 문제가 악화되었고 미국과 주요국의 재정 부양 축소로 역사상 가장 큰 긴축 국면 중 하나를 지나고 있다고 설명한다. 미국 주식시장은 여전히 극단적으로 비싸며, 인플레 급등은 밸류에이션 배수를 줄이는데 이번에는 그 과정이 더 점진적일 것이라고 본다. 결론적으로 주택·주식·채권 모두 위험할 정도로 고평가되어 있고, 이들의 결합은 현대에서 가장 위험한 조합이라는 것이 핵심 주장이다. 이 영상은 특정 종목 매수·매도 추천은 없으며, 자산별 단기 방향에 대한 명시적 예측 발언은 제한적이다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to Main Street informant in this channel we provide information related to wealth money Power Finance business and economics in today's video we will talk about Jeremy Grantham and his warnings of the super bubbles final act in an Investor's career there are only a select few Market events that truly count and super bubbles rank among the most significant of them there are very few super bubbles in history for investors to examine yet they all shared distinct characteristics making them occurrences unlike any other Jeremy Grantham a British investor who's the co-founder and chief investment strategies of the boston-based asset management company Grantham mayo and Van otterlu or GMO in March 2015 GMO had assets under management of more than 118 billion dollars by December 2020 this amount had decreased to 65 billion dollars from 2007 through 2010 he was an outspoken opponent of different government remedies to the global financial crisis he was famous for predicting a number of bubbles ahead of huge crashes including the.com and the 2008 crashes Grantham suggests that the economy always looks near perfect at the peak usually after a long economic upswing and bull market strong GDP low inflation High profit margins and low unemployment his theory is that these super bubbles take multiple stages to break first the Bubble forms second it experiences a setback which he believes already occurred in 2022 third comes the bear Market rally and then finally fundamentals deteriorate and the market crash to the low he thinks this current Super Bubble is about to pop and it will be an epic finale he backs this up by historical data of three previous economic incidents a mild one in 2000 and two severe ones in 1929 and 1972.
to date in 2022 Grantham predicted a catastrophic sell-off during which the value of many assets including stocks and real estate would plummet when he warned that a Super Bubble was going to burst and bad stocks may fall 50 percent from its peak in January buns housing and stocks are all severely overvalued and currently losing momentum in the present Super Bubble which also includes a rare and deadly combination of Commodities shock and fed hawkishness although every cycle is distinct and different every historical comparison indicates that the worst is yet to come the entire world is currently preoccupied with a growth and declining effects of inflation rates and wartime challenges like the oil crunch there are a few additional less visible short-term issues the long-term issues with population resources and climate are only becoming worse and are already starting to have an impact even in the near term here are some potential short-term problems but crisis in Ukraine has made issues with food energy and fertilizer worse across the developing World especially in Africa these issues are far worse than the well-publicized energy issues in Europe in addition as Government reduced covet stimulus both in the United States and internationally we have just come out of one of the biggest periods of fiscal tightening in history meanwhile these are only a handful of the ongoing issues that can have longer lasting problems in China and the developed World labor is already in limited Supply and will continue to be so indefinitely fertilizer is a second crucial resource that is lacking food productivity is declining due to deteriorating and eroding soil a lack of fresh water and pests that are growing more resilient another issue is that the African population increase is outpacing global economic stagnation and lastly the obvious effects of climate change never before have China India Europe and North America all been affected by severe droughts extremely high temperatures and Flames at the same time this collectively could endanger our long-term viability the American Stock Market is still extraordinarily expensive in a surge in inflation like the one we've seen this year always reduces multiples although this time more gradually than usual the future is much dreamer than could have been predicted in January as a result of lockdowns in China war in Europe the food and energy crisis unprecedented fiscal tightening and other unanticipated but significant structural changes and extensive and ongoing food and resource deficit is a worry exacerbated by the growing effects of climate change however Grantham believes that the combination of the housing market inflation geopolitics and energy is more catastrophic than ever all three of these key asset classes housing equities and Bonds were dangerously historically overpriced at the end of last year making the present Super Bubble the most perilous combination of these elements in modern times as in the early 1970s we are currently experiencing a jump in inflation and a rate shock and to make matters worse we are experiencing a boom in Commodities and energy as we painfully saw in 1972 and 2007 and these commodity shocks have historically had a lasting negative impact on growth it is not unexpected that consumer and corporate confidence indices are testing historic lows given all this unfavorable variables additionally in the tech sector hiring is slowing layoffs are increasing CEOs are increasingly preparing for a recession recently a bear Market rally has occurred the bear Market rallies that marked the middle face of deflating super bubbles which is exactly in line with its three historical bubble Cycles Grantham acknowledged that every cycle is unique and every government response is very unpredictable however if history repeats he believes we are going to experience tragic moves in the market as usual if you'll learn something valuable please make sure to like subscribe and hit the notification Bell for more contents like this you can check out more videos on the channel and share see you in the next one
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