저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 이번 하락은 장기 약세장 시작이 아니라 코로나19 공포에 따른 단기 '패닉 어택'이며, 공포가 누그러지면 반등할 것이라는 견해. 시장 진단: 2020년 강세장 중 65번의 패닉 어택을 집계했고, 코로나19 사태를 66번째로 보고 2월 초부터 이를 패닉 어택으로 분류해 왔다. 공포의 성격: 실제 데이터상 코로나19는 일반 계절 독감보다 덜 심각하지만, 공포가 독감보다 빠르게 확산되고 있다. 정부의 격리 조치와 급격한 발표가 공포를 키운 측면이 있다. 바이러스 전망: 사스·메르스처럼 이번에도 지나갈 가능성이 높다. 중국 데이터는 신뢰하기 어렵지만 최악은 지났을 수 있다는 일부 증거가 있다. 정부 조치가 효과를 내면 공포가 가라앉고 시장이 회복될 것으로 본다. 실적 전망: 작년 실적 성장 침체 후 올해 기대가 있었으나, 코로나19로 애널리스트들이 4개 분기 모두 성장률 추정치를 낮추는 중이다. 1분기는 사실상 제로 성장 수준이다. 애널리스트들은 여전히 낙관적이어서 향후 몇 주 동안 추정치 하향이 더 나올 것으로 본다. 밸류에이션: 2018년 말 선행 PER 13.5배에서 2019년 강세장에 40%대까지 올랐다가 현재 17.5배 수준으로 내려왔다. PER 주도 상승이었다는 점을 짚는다. 정책 한계: 연준의 금리 인하 가능성이 있으나, 모두가 패닉 모드에 빠지면 유동성 공급만으로는 매수세를 되살리거나 기업 활동을 정상화하기 어렵다. 이는 이번 사태에서 통화정책이 해결할 수 없는 문제라고 본다. 리스크: 실적 하향이 더 진행되고 공포가 장기화되면 단순 패닉을 넘어 침체로 이어질 수 있다.
다듬은 글
and good to have you i think you'd previously identified 65 panic attacks during the bull market this long bull market and you believe that coronavirus maybe the 66 is it fair to say it is absolutely that as a matter of fact we first started to talk about the possibility that this would be the 66 panic attack and the first first day of trading on February and that was after the late January sell-off but we just said that it could be and then an unfair at the beginning of February we actually listed it as a panic attack number 66 question is whether it's just the panic attack which means it'll be followed by a relief rally and is actually just the great buying opportunity or whether this is the beginning of a bear market I'm still in the panic attack camp you are what about the impact of the fear of the virus which clearly is impacting economic activity around the world yep and causing a potential recession well the pandemic of fear is really what's driving this stock market downwards the reality in terms of the data is that so far co vid 19 as the virus is called as a much less severe than just a typical flu season and yet the fear of Cobra 19 is spreading faster than the flu that that we see in a regular seasonal basis so there's a lot of fear and I think part of the spheres of being fanned fueled by the government reactions which have been extreme but then again the fact that the government's are acting in with these quarantines and rapid-fire announcements that you know we all have to be careful where people are flying less people are interacting less businesses are canceling meetings so this pretty significantly I think increases the odds that this too shall pass just the way other flu viruses coronaviruses have passed like SARS and MERS Minh and so on so if we start to get more evidence of that and there's you know nobody trusts with data coming out of China but there's some evidence that maybe there the worst is over there I think as we see that these government actions are working the pandemic of fear will abate then the market will come back so what what type of earnings decline are we looking at right now in this market yeah very very important question because as you know last year we had a great melt up really in the stock market it started right after Christmas back in 2018 the p/e multiple back then was 13 and a half and we soared to like over 40% up to 19 and the forward p/e multiple and now we're down to what the 17 and a half we had a PE LED melt up because the reality is earnings we had an earnings growth recession last year there was no growth in earnings for all practical purposes part of that was it was tough to compare earnings last year to the year before which had this big boost from the tax cut but we were all not we were all but the Bulls including myself were expecting that this would be a good year for earnings and everything started to kind of kind of line up that way the economic data for January has been very strong broadly speaking but then the virus hit and it looks as though we're going to continue this earnings growth recession which I guess is actually an optimistic outlook because some people would say that we're gonna have just an outright recession with earnings taking a dive so to your point annuals have been cutting back earnings expectations pretty dramatically and now they're expecting basically close to zero in the first quarter you're over your percent change first quarter but I mean shouldn't we be talking about beyond that well I'm watching the quarterly estimates by the analysts yeah you're absolutely right and look what's happening is they are lowering their growth estimates for the for all four quarters of this year but they're still sequentially looking for an increase so you know they tend to be optimistic and they're not they're not as fearful as maybe they should be but I expect to the next few weeks we will continue to see them cutting there so a lot of people know you and you're sort of famous for the Bond vigilante kind of expression we were just talking to charles de lara formerly of iif is there is there a point at which you can have an equity type vigilante situation to push governments to coordinate healthcare policies more to push central banks to coordinate monetary policies and potential governments to act for a fiscal action as well well what are the things that's disturbing about panic attack number 66 is it's this one it's not clear that policy responses out there that can really do much other than what what it's been doing in terms of the healthcare response of governments the quarantine and the warnings you know I heard that you know I watched that you had a lot of conversation about the Fed cutting rates here and you know they may very well be just forced to cut the rates but let's face it the Fed and fix a lot of problems and they've trying to fix a lot of problems but this one they can't fix I mean you can't make the buyers go away with pouring more liquidity into the economic system and you can't make people go to work or fly for business if if everybody is in the in panic mode you
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