저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 3% 급락은 코로나 공포에 따른 과잉 반응이며 매수 기회로 보인다. 주가 근거: S&P500 PE가 50 이상일 때 1948년 이후 47번 중 3개월 뒤 94%, 6개월 뒤 90%, 12개월 뒤 상승했다는 통계를 제시한다. 시장 반응: 악재가 상당 부분 선반영됐다고 보며, 공포지수 VIX 파생시장이 수개월간 지속될 사건을 이미 반영 중이라고 말한다. 리스크: 미국 확산·경기침체 가능성이 있으며, 그 경우 PE가 50 아래로 떨어져 낙관 논리가 깨질 수 있다고 사회자가 지적한다. 안전자산 논리: 글로벌 안전자산 선호, 미국 기업 지배력 회복, 팬데믹 확산이 확정되지 않았다는 점을 근거로 든다. 기관 운용자들은 주식을 완전히 팔 수 없어 안전자산을 찾을 것이라고 본다. 채권 시장: 30년물 금리는 사상 최저 수준이라 경고 신호로 볼 수 있으나, 10년-30년 스프레드는 스티프닝(확대) 중이라 단기 충격 후 경기 회복을 예고하는 신호로 해석한다. 장단기 금리차 10-30은 18개월 선행성을 가진 경기 사이클 신호로 과거에 신뢰도가 높았다고 평가한다. 전망: 충격은 크지만 단기적·고진폭 사건이며 스페인 독감 같은 장기 침체는 아니라는 입장이다. 출연자 전망 요지: 과매도 상태에서 투매가 나오고 있어 매수 기회라는 낙관론이다.
다듬은 글
the 3% sell-off we saw yesterday is very likely viable Tom you there yeah I'm here why is it viable today now I'm not saying covet and coronavirus years of peaked but we had a 3% decline as markets are trying to cope with this at a time when we're not in recession and p.m. eyes are still above 50 since 1948 it's happened 47 times 94 percent of the time we're higher six months later 90 percent of the time we're higher 12 months later this looks like a lot of bad news is attempted to price in and that's why we think it's actually bible here so what if I said to you okay well how do you know that number one what if I told you in a month or two it's not contained it's worse in the US a recession appears like it may actually be likelier than it is today p.m.
eyes are then below 50 that throws your whole thesis out of whack and we're not talking about a far-fetched scenario that I've just baked up out of nowhere there's a legitimate chance that that's the scenario we could be dealing with two three four or five whatever months from now Scott it's a reasonable concern and I think that's what's trying to be priced into the market and as you know the market can't price a binary outcome right like if we slip into recession it's it's hard to discount that today but I think what we have to keep in mind is there's a lot of reasons why us doc shouldn't be sold here as stuff he's been saying you know one it is the global safety trade number two you know US company dominance is going to rebound and you know third it's not a foregone conclusion that this does spread as a pandemic and the reason I think that matters is you know if you're a active manager and you know more than half of our clients need to be invested they can't not be owned stock they have to find some way to be exposed even our macro clients can't go to a hundred percent cash so where are they gonna find safety trade so I think when we think about how markets reacted yesterday it was let's get out and reassess those three percent sell offs are pretty rare and if you look at the distribution of outcomes how markets reacted three months six months twelve months later ninety-four percent of the time people were credit selling and I think that's really key and that's why we think this is a Bible moment how could you suggest though that the prospect of a blow up in US cases is in any way priced in oh god I'm not saying it's priced in I'm saying it's difficult for the markets to price it in but in that process it's taken it's taken the air on the side of caution in other words I think what we've priced in is the likely a greater than a 50% probability that it's spreading to the US and that's why we've sold off so sharply you know we can see it in how the VIX is behaving right it's priced in a spike event that's up to four months out to the the derivatives markets has already priced in this continuing for several months and we looked at I think sentiment is going to show when we look at retail sentiment when it comes out Thursday is my favorite survey I'm sure it's going to show some massive massive negative decline given the magnitude of the sell-off and of course as as many of you guys are saying you know the markets are pretty deeply oversold so there's been indiscriminate selling what if I what if I said though I'm not gonna listen to Tom Lee I'm gonna listen to bond market and that is screaming that we've got a problem and I told you what the ten year was doing earlier today I said the thirty year was extending its record-low and that's going to be my signal not a strategist who is attempting to decide for me whether I think that the virus is going to get worse here or not yeah and I think the the race market right is telling us when you look at the levels we should be scared about something that's what the tenure the thirty-year are saying but what's interesting is if you look at the spread between the ten-year and 30-year right because to us that's always been a really good forward-looking indicator that the spread between a ten thirty it's actually been steepening so what it's saying is that there's a near-term shot here actually the bond market is pricing a pretty sizable economic snap back in the future so although their product the other part of the curve is inverted again so I mean it's sort of pick whatever place along the curve you want to make your case sure but you know for the last 50 years and we wrote about extensive the ten thirty has been a bulletproof business cycle signal it has never it has the fewest false positive of any point of the yield curve and it has an 18-month lead time so it's been steepening so in a way in as corona fears have worsened and we've expected near-term shock it's actually steepening thank telling us that as bad as things can look it's actually a high amplitude but short term event and I think look I'm not saying that there's this is not Spanish flu but do I want to price that in today it's you know that's that's our point you
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