저자: WealthTheory · 외국인
다듬은 글
in times of uncertainty you actually want to be deploying if you think in decades and you're a venture investor you can kind of just put the stuff out of your mind which is what i'm doing i sent you guys his tweet from morgan housel who is a great guy the shock cycle and it's this beautiful cycle assume good news is permanent oblivious to bad news then you ignore the bad news then you deny the bad news then you panic at the bad news but then you accept the bad news and then you ignore the good news you deny the good news you accept the good news and then you assume the good news is permanent that starts the cycle i actually think we're in the part of the cycle here where we're starting to ignore the good news and we're so negative and we're so emotionally wrapped up in everything that people forget that actually the world tends to keep moving forward and so i just think it's important for people to take a step back and take a really deep breath but i think that there's a lot of good news out there i think what's going on is there is some underlying good news right but there's this overhead of a small chance of something catastrophic happening in times of uncertainty you actually want to be deploying i announced the solar deal you know i put 228 million dollars into this thing and then i did another deal i put 45 million bucks into this thing you guys know about but other than that i've been literally uh white knuckled uh i don't like to open the stock app there's no point take some dramamine before you open your morgan stanley stock up the stock and what's what's so funny is like my bloomberg terminal which is right beside me here at my desk i have not logged into it okay put it in a drawer unplug it yeah there's just no point like at the end of every week i get a report right kind of like our p l and i just look at the top line like conor always sends me the top line is like you know and and the last like eight weeks in a row we've lost one percent we've lost two percent we've lost three percent the time that sacks wishes he lost one percent i celebrated i got so drunk that night i was like this is where it really does help right sacks to think in decades like if you think in decades and you're a venture investor you can kind of just put the stuff out of your mind which is what i'm doing and the great thing is i'm seeing amazing companies great founders deals are taking longer to close people are starting to do diligence again and people are discussing what the right valuation for this early stage startup is which is good that's healthy i think we're getting like i don't know what you're seeing in the in the early to mid-stage market privately but i'm seeing really healthy discussions and late stage madness is gone it's over yeah i mean i think a hundred times ar is over but we no one really knows where it's landing so i've seen some deals get done at 60 to 80 times but um no one really knows where it should be you know i sent you guys his tweet from morgan housel who is a great guy and he has this fabulous tweet he says this he he it says this the shock cycle and it's this beautiful cycle assume good news is permanent oblivious to bad news then you ignore the bad news then you deny the bad news then you panic at the bad news but then you accept the bad news and then you ignore the good news you deny the good news you accept the good news and then you assume the good news is permanent that starts the cycle if i if i could just put it out there i don't know today if you guys saw non-farm payrolls but we had a huge print in um unemployment like really great print meaning like a lot of employers were able to find people to take jobs it was a big number but the interesting thing about it was we didn't see uh wage inflation tick up with it and if i had to look at that and if you actually look at a bunch of the earnings reports that have come out in the last three or four weeks i actually think we're in the part of the cycle here where we're starting to ignore the good news and we're so negative and we're so emotionally wrapped up in everything that people forget that actually the world tends to um keep moving forward right um we are not in world war three by any measure are we in not we are not anywhere near that okay and so i think i think it's important for people to take a step back and take a really deep breath but i think that there's a lot of good news out there there's a ton of good news and for people who don't know the term we're ignoring people don't know the term print when we say there's a print that is just a colloquialism in the financial markets that something was formatted for printing previously and you got good news so an official report is sometimes called we got a price i agree with i think what's going on is there is some underlying good news right but there's this overhead of a small chance of something catastrophic happening so how do you price that in right it's it's it's uh it's like a one outer right yeah yeah exactly but this guy's quads were set over set yeah it's a one hour to one hour to the apocalypse basically if this tiny probability thing happens the game is over so you know does it matter if there's a nuclear war that's right this is this is the thing that people underestimate is like that's not a that's not a risk that one should be hedging in any way financially right at that point the only thing that matters is the health and safety of your family and your friends but really your immediate family like can you take care of them and make sure they're safe and so you know if you're if you're an investor in the financial markets or you're building a company managing for that externality in my opinion i'm not sure makes a ton of sense because i don't think you can manage to that externality you have no impact on it it's something it's completely out of control yeah so i think you have to manage to the 99.999 of normalized outcomes and i think right now there are some what's called green shoots meaning like some positive news in the world and some positive data by the way the other thing that we saw today was or this week was jerome powell and you know the jerome powell testimony was also in the middle of massive amounts of bad news some actually pretty decent good news which was he said he's going to raise by 25 basis points in march everybody knew that right so we took the 50 basis pointer off the table but then he was very clear that they were going to be data-driven and in the language of the federal reserve what that essentially means is like we're going to be patient and wait and see and if you couple it with what i said before which is the economic cost of these economic sanctions towards russia can be calculated and i think that we have proven a willingness to print capital and money and so if you put those two things together i think there could be a real possibility that powell becomes very accommodative and you know he and biden and the entire administration come together with europe and everybody else and say get the money printer back going because we are we're going to stand the line on these economic sanctions and we're going to you know sort of soft land the economy here because we think there's recessionary risks afoot let me just provide a a little bit of a counterpoint which is where i'm most concerned we don't know what the repercussions are fully in a dynamical system of global capital of pulling out this much capital and devaluing assets at this scale so quickly the shock to the system i don't think has yet been realized and i think we'll know at the end of this month when books close what things actually do to businesses to swap agreements to trades you know trade balances that are outstanding and you could talk about economic stimulus as being the way to solve that but we don't yet know what's broken and they're like let me just give you guys another example today corn i think is trading at 760 a bushel that hasn't happened guys i can't tell you in how long this was a commodity that was trading at 350 a few months ago and so we're now talking about that the trickle-down effect of that price into the beef the trickle-down effect as we're already seeing in california where the or san francisco and the average price per gallon of gas at over five dollars the trickle-down effect on um on purchasing behavior on businesses defaulting because uh suddenly their their counterparties dry up we don't know and we won't know and it's not actually we know some of those we know some of them but we don't know what we don't know and the thing i'm concerned about is this is a imagine when i say dynamical system from a physics perspective it's like take 100 slinkies and tie them together into a giant graph of slinkys and you start punching one of the slinkies like this if you punch one or two of the slinkies hard enough you don't know how the repercussions will cause a slinky all the way over there to suddenly shoot up or shoot down but there are you're also denying your ability to change a difference linky that's the whole point of a dynamic sure you could put energy back into it but we don't know what's broken and there could be something that's irreparable through these we've gone through these things before and i think you're not learning from history or you're at least not willing to admit it but no i i think we're seeing hold on a second we've seen it in tarp okay we did not know the total extent of what happened in the gfc and we had to invent a financial framework to soft land the global economy we figured it out when we went through ltcm and john merriweather blew up explain what that is there was a huge hedge fund in the late 90s that basically had a massively levered exposure to the financial markets to the tune of like tens or tens or hundreds of billions of dollars go read the book when genius failed if you want to read the story it does a good job summarizing it but it's a great story yeah go ahead and again we had to step in uh with a governmental framework and a broad infrastructure of actors across the world to soft land the financial economy in a way not knowing what the actual uh what what part was broken so i i just fundamentally disagree with this idea that we're running blind yeah look we're talking about i'm talking about capital and energy and food and some combination of those things are going to cause some serious deleterious effects on okay well i think and on markets and look i i get it chamath i know that there's solutions for repair and i know that we're going to act swiftly and aggressively and every time by the way i just want to point out in each of those scenarios you've talked about we've acted more swiftly and more aggressively than we did in the scenario prior and it's getting to the point that you know what is the value how much debt how much deficit are we really willing to take on everyone obviously has these kind of you know intrinsic existential questions about how much we really can act long term without the dollar collapsing but certainly in the context of a global economy collapsing the dollar will always be the safe haven but there are other things at play here like you know the cost of gas for the average american you know the the the amount of wheat and the amount of food that people in africa are going to have what you're saying here freeberg is that some of these things we have been through and if you look at gas as one example i think you're bringing up the importance here food and energy gas we actually know what happens when gas prices go up we saw that not long ago people bought more hybrids and the miles per gallon per car uh you know when you raise prices consumption goes down and people get created i'm talking about the short-term acute effects the thing that america has the ability to do is they have the ability to change the financial incentives for actors all around the world in a split second and behavior can change and and so i actually think friedrich the nuance thing that you're saying which i completely agree with but maybe we should say more explicitly is it probably is a reasonable way to manage risk in america europe canada japan but what's going to be very very difficult is the impact that this has on emerging markets in southeast asia asia africa could be really really deleterious for some amount of time and sad and it's a human it's going to cause a humanitarian problem it's really friggin sad and it's you know whatever progress has been made could be unwound i think you're right by the way i think i think that that is actually really the risk that i think um holding the line on these sanctions really does it pushes the risk towards em countries and then i think we're gonna have to figure out what our moral resolve is to go and fix those that's my point earlier which is we're going to bear the cost ultimately the united states is going to have to step up in a really outsized way to solve this problem and while we might not be sending troops on the ground we're going to end up paying several years that's going to be just the united states free burger the united states seems to be working in coordination with whatever it is in this situation unilaterally anymore that's a good news we're going to have an economic cost right there's going to be something there's there's there's no amount of money that you can actually put on human life and so if we can avoid a military war i just think that there's just there's there's no red line on cost there and so if we end up running massive deficits and now we're at you know 150 250 300 percent of gdp uh i think that you know morally that's that is the right thing to do sax is is is the world becoming more idealistic and realistic let me bring saxon here sax is the world becoming more anti-fragile slash resilient pick one of the two i guess to these kind of upending events because of covid because of china pulling out of financial markets we just went through this freeberg was like hey this is unprecedented actually i think we have a little bit of precedent here we have the complete shutdown of the economy from covet in recent memory and we have china deciding that all these companies are no longer public we've seen they did their own economic sanctions they sanctioned themselves and pulled out of markets so where do you think sex i mean i think the current crisis is a reminder that it's not uh too anti-fragile i think we are in a transition we've the cold war ended about 30 years ago and since then we've been engaging in this sort of unipolar foreign policy where america calls all the shots now the world is becoming more multi-polar i'm not sure it's all the way there yet and you have countries like russia and china reasserting themselves and that's making the world a more dangerous place well you also have the eu working together in unison and they seem to be maybe they're going to become a bigger actor here because of this right we're seeing them take that that was sort of a positive surprise as long as they don't pull a franz ferdinand like freeburg said and inadvertently blunder us into the into a war okay folks this is this week in dystopian
Comments 0