저자: TomLee · 외국인
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비트코인이 200일 이동평균 대비 30% 하회한 상태는 과거 2011년 10월·2014년 12월에도 나타났던 강한 매수 신호이며, 이후 6개월 수익 확률은 90% 이상이었다는 주장. 마스터카드가 법정화폐 연동 계정을 통해 암호화폐 결제를 빠르게 처리하는 특허 문서를 공개한 것이 비트코인 반등의 촉매로 언급됨. 다만 Tom Lee는 이를 '좋은 출발'이라고만 평가하며 추세 전환 여부는 단정하지 않음. 기술적 측면에서 역헤드앤숄더나 와이코프 바닥 형성 가능성이 거론됨. 이는 보조적 근거로 제시됨. 반사성(reflexivity) 개념을 들어, 가격이 오를수록 매수 관심이 커진다고 설명함. 가격대별 매수 수요가 다르다는 점도 언급. 과거 비트코인이 200일선 대비 30% 이상 상회할 때 '비트코인 미저리 지수'가 67에 도달하면 고점 신호였다고 언급. 2017년 12월에 이 수준에 도달했다고 함. 현재 상황이 하락 신호인지는 명시하지 않음. 출연자는 비트코인 가격의 단기 반등 가능성을 긍정적으로 보나, 1~3개월 구체적 목표가는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
a little bit of good news finally Melissa Bitcoin which had been struggling at the $6,800 level for over a month popped over $7,000 in just seconds in the middle of the day so here's the news MasterCard has published a document outlining how they may try to speed up cryptocurrency transactions by linking accounts holding both fiat currency and crypto currencies so this document which is published by the US Patent and Trademark Office so it's a serious document notes that it often takes a significant amount of time 10 minutes is typical for a blockchain based transaction to be processed but that fiat payment transactions can be done in nanoseconds okay we all know that this wide difference though puts payment using crypto currencies at a big disadvantage so merchants are wary about accepting blockchain currency and individuals may also have trouble proving their identity and ownership of a wallet all right so what is MasterCard proposing they want to offer a new type of user account that would allow a user to do transactions using crypto currencies but pegged to a fiat currency presumably their credit this transaction would use the payment system and the security features presumably mastercards features but the transaction would be done in crypto currencies now this document also knows that this may take cryptocurrency payments but may make them more secure because MasterCard may be able to use its existing risk algorithms to evaluate the potential for fraud algorithms that are not currently available to blockchain networks now this is the first decent piece of news for crypto currencies in a while and even led to a modest pop in volume for Bitcoin all right maybe it's not the end or the beginning of the turnaround but it's certainly a good start back to you Melissa it sounds like Bob that MasterCard is proposing like a stable coin yes essentially what seems to be happening is they're offering to say okay so I have a certain amount of credit available say ten thousand dollars that I can automatically use I am going to essentially have another account which has cryptocurrency in it they're going to pay it using crypto and currency but guarantee is essentially that it's backed by my my own account there so if you send out a fraction of a Bic if you have one Bitcoin in your account you send out a fraction of that that you essentially MasterCard will be guaranteeing this is what it seems like that the payment is made instantaneously backed by my own credit my account got it Bob thank you thanks for that explainer and we do want to draw your attention to a poll a poll from our sister show futures now fabulous online sensation that discusses Bitcoin pretty much all the time now earlier today featuresnow asked Twitter if they thought Bitcoin would break above 7000 that was when Bitcoin was trading just under sixty eight hundred bucks was more than seventy seven hundred people voted seventy percent no pretty cynical so could all this pessimism be fueling part of this rally who better to ask than raging Bitcoin Bowl Tom Lee of fun strategy joins us he's over at the plasma with two charts that he says could signal a Bitcoin moon boom hi Tom what are you looking at well I'm looking at a couple things so wanna mark this chart up this is the 200-day moving average for Bitcoin and that represents the average price roughly for the past year and there's a gap here Bitcoin is trading 30% below its 200-day moving average it turns out that that's actually a pretty positive signal and the reason it's a positive signal is that this has happened a few times since 2009 the first time it happened is here October 2011 and the second time it happened was December 2014 why is that significant well number one Bitcoin bottom dwith in a month here oops sorry I drew that the wrong way and it bottomed within a month here but I think it tells us something even more important not the next month it's telling us that if you look for in the next six months you're gonna do pretty well owning Bitcoin here so to us the message is when Bitcoin trading 30% below its 200-day it's a it's a huge hole signal because one we're ending the nearing the end of a correction but also if you look forward six months you're gonna do pretty well owning Bitcoin alright Tom why don't you come on over to the desk you don't put it up to a vote come on thank you for bringing the chair over Tom this is Diane oh yeah great to see gummy bears let's get back to Bitcoin aside from the gummi bears that we have every day here on set so when you heard the MasterCard news tom did you think that that would be a major catalyst or did you think that it was really the technicals that started you know I'm acting well over the weekend there were quite a lot of folks who are talking about TA and the potential formation of either inverse head and shoulders or a Wyckoff you know buy off so it sounds like the technicals were really starting to become more favorable I think something like the MasterCard news is positive because it's really validating the idea that digital money or blockchain based money is is a valid form of transactions and you know even if it's not recognized in the u.s.
we know that in Japan there they've really taken a much more positive view on digital money or blockchain based money being real transaction so yes it's good news so when you outline those times when Bitcoin was trading 30 percent below the 200-day moving average what was the average move higher to the next sort of plateau well one thing that we outlined in our note on that is if you looked at your probability making money six months out it was close to a hundred percent so in other words if you could ever buy Bitcoin 30 percent below it's eternity moving average you almost always saw a good risk reward being long at what point though how long did you have to wait into that Triggs if I look back on the Bitcoin chart in the you know the early part of this ascension you could have could have sat underwater there for what yeah so what I'm saying is six months so if you if you said buy it and sell it six months later your probability making money was over 90% within six months sorry yeah do you think there's a lot of money out there that would rather buy Bitcoin at 7,500 than 6,000 just feeling like you know the bottom has been tested yeah there's I guess the term people uses reflexivity there's a lot of reflexivity and crypto meaning there's a lot more enthusiasm when bitcoins trend is higher and so I think there's a lot more buyers at 20,000 and there are 6,000 and there's PI more at 7500 but there'll be more at 10,000 there's the same hold true with bitcoins 30% above the 200-day moving here does that become a sell signal not unlike what you're seeing on the buy side yeah so guy one of the sort of offshoots of that is is actually the Bitcoin misery index and it turns out whenever that hits 67 that is marked bitcoins essential top and so that you know we hit 67 in in December so you
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