저자: KevinO'Leary · 외국인
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결론: 액티브 ETF와 지수 설계 쪽은 긍정적이지만, 비트코인 ETF는 규제 불확실성 때문에 기관 자금이 아직 들어오기 어렵다고 본다. ETF 시장 전망: 시가총액 가중 지수형 ETF가 여전히 대부분의 운용자산을 차지하지만, 최근 액티브 운용 ETF가 부상하고 있다고 설명한다. 좋은 운용사의 철학을 지수로 옮기면 더 싸고, 유동적이고, 투명하고, 세금 효율적이라고 주장한다. 지수 설계 사례: 러셀2000은 적자 기업이 많아 편입을 원하지 않으며, 수익성 있는 기업만 골라 담은 338개 종목 지수를 선호한다고 말한다. 블랙록 아이셰어즈의 2018년 2분기 이후 최저 자금 유입은 블랙록 경쟁력 문제라기보다 상품 차별화의 결과라고 해석한다. 블랙록은 여전히 4조 달러 규모의 거대 운용사이며 자금은 계속 늘어날 것이라고 본다. 넷플릭스 및 FANG 관련: 넷플릭스가 장후 14% 이상 하락한 가운데, 이를 많이 담은 FANG·모멘텀 ETF에도 압력이 갈 수 있다고 봤다. 다만 장기 보유자라면 30% 낙폭도 익숙하게 견뎌야 하며, 사업 모델이 근본적으로 바뀌었다고 보지는 않는다. 과거에도 실적을 놓친 적이 많고, 해외 실적은 좋다고 평가한다. 3거래일 정도 기다렸다가 분할 매수하는 접근을 언급한다. 비트코인 ETF 전망: 기관 자금은 규제 환경이 명확해지기 전까지 비트코인에 들어가지 않을 것이라고 본다. 스웨덴 정부의 국가 코인 검토, 스위스의 암호화폐 거래소 발표 등은 흥미롭지만 투명성·규제 준수·규제기관 참여가 확인되어야 실제 자금이 들어온다고 말한다. 최근 60일간 비트코인에 대한 논조가 바뀌어 '선구자 화살 맞은 모습'처럼 들리며, 이더리움 등 새 플랫폼이 대안이 되고 있다고 보고 비트코인 장기 보유자라면 우려해야 한다고 발언했다. 그는 개인적으로 비트코인 롱 포지션이 없다고 밝혔다. 블랙록 관련: 블랙록이 암호화폐를 이해하고 참여 방법을 찾지 않으면 어리석은 일이며, 이것이 액티브·패시브 성과를 가르는 차별화 요인이 될 수 있다고 본다. 암호화폐는 정당한 투자 자산군이 될 것이라는 견해다.
다듬은 글
are we witnessing peak ETF let's ask the man who has created and manages a few of his own etf's kevin O'Leary of shark tank and chairman of oshi ayers etf investments kevin it's always great to speak with you are we witnessing peak etf or does this really speak to the increased number of participants offering ETFs in the markets I think people categorize ETFs as one asset class it's not the beginning of the ETF market came with just very blunt instruments just market cap weighted indices and they still are the lion's share of the AUM but in the in the last couple of years this concept of actively managed ETFs is come to the front and that's where I'm really intrigued because as you know someone who invests if I can find a great manager and institutionalize their philosophy into an index it's cheaper it's more liquid it's more transparent and it's way more tax efficient and you know great indexers like footsie russell for example i don't want to own the russell 2000 because there's so many companies there don't make any money you have to go back to them and say look you're the indexer of this fantastic index that's outperforming now because it's got tax advantage situations and it's got deregulation on domestic revenue but I don't want to own all the stuff that's unprofitable cuz a it doesn't get the tax benefit and you got a lot of REITs in there that don't have any tax benefit of reform make me an index that just get gets me the profitable companies and they did and there's only 338 of them out of the mm I um that that's oh you SM that's an index they built I like it that works for me that's what we hear you know when it comes to Blackrock inflows into iShares we're the lowest since the second quarter of 2016 that's not a statement you think of the etf industry that's a statement as to what Blackrock offers versus is competitive Blackrock is the Big Daddy they are the behemoth ship and they have pretty well every index there is including all the blunt instruments which are market cap waiters and indices I can see if markets go flat or have a drawdown you're gonna see fund flows out of those but if you can solve a person's problem by creating an actively managed philosophy and an index at half the cost of an active manager you're gonna continue to get money in there worth four trillion dollars here it's gonna keep growing let's talk about the blunt instruments though because we were just having this conversation about Netflix which is down by more than 14% right in the after our session are we going to see that pressure on thanks doc because not only are there you know the people who just want to buy the cues but there are also the people who want to buy the more specialized etf's like the Fang plus the momentum ETF all the things that own Netflix as a top holding there's so much overlap here if there's a drawdown it's going to affect a basket of stocks if you're a long-term shareholder Netflix let's take the the Fang stock does your that's getting slaughtered tonight you're used to draw downs as much as 30% this is not the first time you've been clobbered on either you believe in the philosophy of what they're doing domestically and globally or you don't if you do wait for the three-day washout there's gonna be all kinds of research tomorrow that's going to slam this stock wait for three trading sessions an average down I mean that's what others have done I mean am I gonna change my mind about Netflix at this point in time that this whole business model has changed dramatically no they missed a number like they've missed a number many times before I remember down 32 percent on Netflix yes grown men will weep but this too will pass and frankly their numbers internationally look fantastic let's get the crypto is this gonna be a new avenue of growth for the industry in your view you have you been have you been fielding any inquiries oh hey Kevin when are you gonna do your own Bitcoin sort of ETF no okay no I my take on this is institutional money is not going to go there yet for one basic reason compliance and the regulatory environment until you know crypto is intriguing there's all kinds of green shoots the Swedish government talking about a coin for the country the Swiss announcing an exchange for crypto all this stuff is interesting but until you know with certainty if you're an asset allocator and you're running a sovereign fund or you're doing a pension plan for you know some state you're not gonna put a dime into this stuff because the regulator is not on board yet and we have to wait until that happens I mean at the end of the day you want you need to know it's transparent its compliant and the regular is on board and then you'll see real money right now it's fringe and by the way the dialogue I've noticed on Bitcoin in the last 60 days has dramatically changed it's starting to sound like the pioneer with the arrows in its back because people are saying it's not the definitive platform anymore that may be a theory M is becoming the new platform and all of a sudden bit what's Bitcoin that is not good for Bitcoin investors that is the yesteryear story on something changing just a personal opinion but if I were along Bitcoin right now I'd start to worry about it because that is not the hot does your story on crypto anymore I guess you're not long de Coyne no are you okay okay right in fact I don't even know how to do that on a compliant basis that's the way I look at it Kevin thank you thoughts great to see you kevin O'Leary mr.
wonderful himself look I think crypto is interesting I mean I like a black rock black rock would be foolish not to figure out a way to get involved here and at least get educated especially given their a um I think any asset manager right now would be foolish because this could be the differentiating factor when it comes to performance when you think of passive versus active so as an active manager you think about understanding this place you can collect fees right now you collect fees you grab a priceless product this will become a legitimate investment class and you got to be intelligent
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