저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 버핏과 멍거는 레버리지 기반 대체투자(사모펀드·사모신용 등)와 그 수익률 주장에 회의적이며, 공적연기금이 이에 쉽게 끌리는 것을 경계한다. 레버리지와 과거 수익: 지수펀드 수익률에 레버리지를 더하면 높은 수익이 가능하나 대부분 본질은 좋은 사업에 대한 비레버리지 투자와 같다. 금리가 낮고 기업시장이 호황인 현 상황이 이런 전략에 유리했을 뿐이다. 대체투자 평가: 비레버리지 보통주 기준으로 현재 사모시장에서 거래되는 자산은 잘 작동하지 않을 것으로 본다. 다만 7~8% 수익 자산을 4~5%에 빌릴 수 있고 약정이 없다면 일부 파산은 있어도 더 나은 결과가 나올 수 있다고 인정한다. 버크셔의 입장: 버크셔는 레버리지를 쓰지 않으며, 이를 흥미롭게 여기지 않는다. 레버리지로 인해 고IQ 인재들도 무너졌다는 사례(LTCM 1998)를 든다. 시장 구조: 기업 사모매수 자금이 약 1조 달러 이상으로 추정되며 레버리지까지 더하면 3조 달러 규모가 될 수 있다. 미국 시장 규모 30조 달러 이상 대비 매물이 적어 수급 환경이 10~20년 전과 크게 달라졌다. 사모펀드 수익률 왜곡: 일부 사모펀드의 수익률 계산이 정직하지 않다고 본다. 약정 자본에 수수료를 부과하고 내부수익률 산정에서 자금 호출 구조를 충분히 반영하지 않아 실제보다 좋아 보인다. 연기금 경계: 공적연기금 운용자가 수수료 기반 판매 논리에 휘둘리지 않도록 주의해야 한다고 강조한다. 분석가보다 세일즈맨이 돈을 버는 구조이며, 자금을 장기간 잠그는 상품은 불리한 거래가 되기 쉽다. 캐나다 위니펙 연기금 질문자에게 공감하며 대체투자 확대에 신중할 것을 조언한다. 장기 전망: 명확한 장기 수익률 수치는 제시하지 않았으며, 지수펀드 약 11% 수익을 언급한 것이 유일한 기준점이다.
다듬은 글
Warren and Charlie my name is Brent Muyo I'm from Winnipeg Canada first thank you for devoting so much time and energy to education I'm a better investor because of your efforts but more importantly I'm a better partner friend son brother and soon-to-be first-time father there's nothing more important than these relationships and my life is better because you're willing to pass on your experience and wisdom my path into finance was unconventional I worked as an engineer for 12 years while two years ago I began a career in finance working for the civil service superannuation board a seven billion dollar public pension fund in Winnipeg I work on until the alternative investments which include infrastructure private equity and private credit I go to work every day knowing that I'm there to benefit the hardworking current and future beneficiaries of the fund like most asset classes alternative purchase multiples have increased more of these assets are funded with borrow money and the terms and covenants on this debt are essentially non-existent with this in mind and knowing the constraints of illiquid closed-end funds please give me your thoughts on private alternative investments their relevancy and public pension funds and your view on long-term return expectations yeah if you would leveraged up investments in just common stocks and you'd figured a way so that that you would have staying power if there were any market dip I mean you know obviously agreed obtain extraordinary returns I pointed out in my investing lifetime you know an index fund would do 11% we'll imagine well you'd have done if you'd leveraged that up 50% whatever the prevailing rates were over time so the leveraged investment in a business is going to be a non leveraged investment in a good business a good bit of the time but as you point out the covenants to protect debt holders has really dear degenerated in the business and of course you've been in an up market for businesses and you've got very low interest rates so it's been a very good time for it I my personal opinion is if you take if you take unleveraged returns against unleveraged common stocks I do not think what is being purchased today and marketer today would work well but if if you can borrow money give my assets that will yield seven or eight percent and you can borrow enough money at four or five percent and you don't have any covenants to meet you're gonna have some bankruptcies but you're gonna also have better results in many cases it's not a it's not something that interests us at all we we are not going to leverage up Berkshire if we'd leveraged up Berkshire we'd have made a whole lot more money obviously over the years but both Charlie and I probably have seen some more high IQ people really extraordinary IQ people destroyed by leverage we saw long-term capital management where we had people who could do in their sleep map that we couldn't do at least I couldn't do you know what working full-time out during the day and I mean really really smart people working with her own money and with years and years of experience of what they were doing and and you know it all turned the pumpkins and mice in 1998 and and he actually was a source of national concern just a few hundred people and then we saw some of those same people after that happened to him once go out and do the same thing again so it's I would I would not get excited about so-called alternative investments there's you can get all kinds of different figures but there may be there's probably at least a trillion dollars committed to buying in effect buying businesses and if you figure they're gonna leverage them you know two-for-one on that you may have three trillion of buying power trying to buy businesses and a the US market maybe something over 30 trillion now but there's all kinds of businesses that aren't for sale than that thing so the supply demand situation we're buying businesses privately and leveraging them up has changed dramatically from what it was 10 or 20 years ago and I'm sure it doesn't happen with your Winnipeg operation but but we have seen a number of proposals from private equity funds were the returns are really not calculated in a manner that what they're not calculated in a manner that I would regard as honest and so I it's is it's it's not something I if I were running a pension fund I would be very careful about what was being offered to me if you're gonna have a choice in Wall Street between being a great analyst or being a great salesperson the salesperson is the way to make it if you can you can raise 10 billion dollars in the fund and you get a one and a half percent C and you lock people up for ten years you know you and your children and your grandchildren will never have to do a thing if you are the dumbest investor in the world but charlie well I I think hood we're doing well or more safely than what he's doing and but I I wish you well yeah brand his side you sound actually you sound like a guy that I would hope would be working for a public pension fund because frankly most of the most of the institutional funds you know that and then well we had this terrible right here normal and you can get a story of what happened with our with our alma public schools Retirement Fund and they were doing fine and until the manager started going at a different direction than the and the trustees here them perfectly decent people and the manager done okay to that point and they were smarter and went a bigger than they are here wow that was pretty bad here it's not a fair fight actually one of usually when a bunch of public officials are listening to people who are motivated to really just get paid for raising the money everything else is gravy after that but but you if you run a fund and you get even one percent you know of a billion you're getting ten million dollars here coming in and if you've got the money locked up for a long time it's it's a very one-sided deal and you know I told the story of asking the guy one time in the past how in the world can you why in the world can you ask for two and twenty when you really haven't got any kind of evidence that you were going to do better with the money than you're doing an index fund then he said well that's because I can't get three and thirty what I don't like about a lot of the pension fund investments is I think they like it because they don't have to mark it down as much as it should be in the middle of the panics I think that's a silly reason to buy something because you're given leniency and marking it down yeah and when you commit the money in the case of private equity often you they don't take the money but you pay a fee on the money that you've committed and of course you really have to have that money they come up with at any time and of course it makes their return look better if you sit there for a long time and surgery bills which you have to old because they can call you up and demand the money and they don't count that they counted in terms of getting a fee on it but they don't count it in terms of what the so-called internal rate of return it's it's it's it's not as good as it looks and and I really do think that when you have a group sitting as a state pension fund where all they're doing is lying a little bit to make the money come in yeah yeah that sums it up
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