저자: TP/Eric · 외국인
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은·비트코인 단기 모멘텀 강세 전망(비트코인 10만달러 복귀 가능성 언급). 미국 10년물 금리 5.3%→5.1% 하락에 따라 하락추세 가능성 언급. 미국 주택시장 고평가·가격 조정 필요 주장. 프랑스 경제 붕괴 및 사회 혼란, 유럽 정책 비판, 인플레이션 장기화 우려. 개인 자산 분산투자(인덱스·은·금 등) 및 저축 습관 강조.
다듬은 글
my timer. I'm gonna set it for 32 minutes. TP, what's up, dude? What's up, baby? How are you today? Good, man. Good. All right, so episode four episode, another podcast number four. Here we go. Let's do it. Four and many more. That's right. So, we'll we'll jump right into it and uh start the call or start start the podcast off with a quick market recap like we typically do.
Sure. Um really see here markets are you know up the Dow's up 1%. Uh S&P pretty much flat, NASDAQ pretty flat. Silver's up about one and a half percent which is great. So really, you know, it hit that 5570 and it's so far so good. So far so good. So maybe that's just a buying opportunity. Had a nice bounce off that resistance level.
didn't break through 55 down past 50. So, one day at a time, buddy. But yeah, looks pretty good. I like that. So, we're not out of the woods, but one day at a time. So, that that makes sense to me. Uh, Bitcoin's up a percent. Another one where I think I think, you know, 83 84 probably 835 is is pretty uh pretty big resistance.
So, I think if we can get through that, I'm not saying we're off to the races, but I think that's uh I think there's a good possibility that uh we'll be heading back up towards 100K in my opinion. Yeah, very very bullish. That would be a you know breaking through 86 I think particularly and then beyond that you know well into the 90s and we all know how Bitcoin how explosive it is and within days it can be up you know multiple percentage points.
So I mean silver too, right? I mean those two assets I mean they just absolutely rip or they tank. I mean, you you do have consolidation periods, but but their moves happen so fast that it's those assets where you really need to build a position and hold for the long term because otherwise you could miss a massive percentage gain
in my opinion. Definitely. And you don't want to chase it because, you know, these big moves generally come with a pullback and it's just, you know, not not a good idea to to try to chase it and and time that in particularly for sure. And I my recommendation is do of course do your own homework, become confident in those two assets when so when you do get a 50% dip or 60% dip or some crazy number, you don't panic sell and you just continue to accumulate over time.
Exactly. Use those those downward movements as a buying opportunity. Who knows better than that? Nobody knows better than you in regards to that. I mean, you've been buying silver mo maybe 20 years day, you know, week in week out. And I know you've been in Bitcoin for a little while, maybe in the teens.
I think I don't you know I don't know your your exact financial position but I know you've been buying Bitcoin just from our friendship you know I I want to say you you started buying at the in in the 12s at one point or in the teens. Well, I'll say this. I'll say this. I I I'll say this. I I uh I won't say my cost basis, but what I will say is when I connected the dots, I connected the dots early,
and it almost became uh almost like a a panic situation, like, oh [ __ ] I got to accumulate this quick before other people connect the dots. And I'll tell you what, this leads right into one of the things I wanted to discuss because one of the biggest companies out there that would always bash Bitcoin is JP Morgan, right?
I mean, non-stop. Jamie Diamond. Jamie Jamie Diamond, right? Or at least he did publicly. Now, I always suspected that part of that reason was he didn't have the regulations, the government backing, so he couldn't buy it as an organization, but he could buy it personally. So, I I I always, you know, me being kind of that conspiracy theory, you know, mindset.
Outside the box thinker. I like that term. Outside. Yeah. Outside the box. But would it really put it could you really put it past a banker to you know bash an asset that you want to accumulate over time? Not at all. Especially one at that level. I mean just you know look what they did during the 2008 financial crash.
You know the entire housing economy is crashing on one one side of the bank and then on the other they have the proprietary trading desk shorting it down making billions of dollars. So, I put it nothing past these two big def fail banks and their corporate executive staff. Well, dude, I I remember when um Jamie Diamond, this was September 12th, I think of 2024, you know, like right around that time frame.
And he he came out and he said, listen, you know, basically, you know, Bitcoin's a scam. And he did this many times. You could go back and look at how many times he said it was a scam publicly. Many, many times. But this time in particular stands out because it was right when Bitcoin was getting some momentum.
He came out and said it was a scam and he said he would fire any of his traders that would buy Bitcoin and he got to fire him, right? But but at the time what happened soon after he he came out and said that as CEO of of JP Morgan is Bitcoin corrected 24%. Right? So he knew right around the corner like he know he knew that he was going to start getting government support and everything else.
So he knew that was coming around the corner. So I would bet my last dollar that part of that strategy was to get a pullback so he could allocate to his personal stash. Oh, I'm sure he's got his crypto wallet out there somewhere just full of Bitcoin. Full of it. So anyway, I'm sure he does. Yeah. Anyway, so all right.
So, also real quick, I'd like to add um the 10 years had a had a bit of a pullback. I mean, what did it reach 5.3 a couple weeks back and it now it's down to 51. Some have said that the 10-year has topped, I guess, from a technical basis, and that uh this may be the beginning of a of a a downtrend and that, you know, maybe buying bonds right now isn't necessarily a bad idea.
So, I don't know. I don't have my crystal ball, but something to keep an eye on. um because we know how important the 10-year yield is just to the housing market and to the financial system as a whole. So definitely could see could be the makings of a downtrend in the uh tenure and if it breaks below five definitely bearish and who knows what would happen from there but we all know you know lowering interest rates is bullish for uh you know a run up in markets.
Absolutely. And and we talked about this, nothing goes up in a straight line. And and if you look at the 10-year, you look I mean it was just day after day after day it kept ticking higher and higher and higher. And at some point it has to correct at some point. So maybe maybe I mean we're definitely I think due and um I mean you're right.
I mean I mean quite frankly the markets seem to go up whether the it's going up or down at this point but if it does come down that yeah historically that is definitely uh favorable for for assets. Just think about what that does to the housing market and mortgage rates. Yeah, but it's an affordability issue, man.
Like it it's you know it's not it's not just about interest rates. It's about that house prices are just too [ __ ] high. I mean they're just too they're just too high. It's disgusting. Yeah. It's crazy. There's such a complete disconnect between housing prices and then Americans income. Oh, no doubt, man.
And that's that's really a key indicator in an over in realizing that we have an overvalued real estate market and it's some point that gap is going to have to correct. And you know, yeah, who knows when that will happen, if ever. But um historically, you know, that's it's been a big indicator. So, I mean, dude, if it's if it's cheaper to rent than to buy, you know, it's, you know, per month.
You you know it's [ __ ] up. You know, it's [ __ ] up. You know, it's completely [ __ ] up. So, so until that shifts, I mean, you can't you can't make any money off of renting a property. You just you're better off right now, you know, from a month in monthout basis, in my opinion, renting. I mean, it's just the way the numbers are.
Unless you're sitting pretty on a 2% mortgage, right? Like a lot of people are. But yeah. All right. No more positive cash flow for these real estate flippers. Sorry, boys and girls. That's it, man. Right. Yeah. And dude, I mean, for so long. I mean, I kept hearing, oh, you know, interest rates are going to go down.
It'll come down. It'll be okay. Blah blah blah blah blah. I mean, it's crazy, man. It's crazy. We don't realize and and I mean we realize this but I don't think people realize how important or how dependent we are on the real estate economy for GDP growth in America. I mean we have no manufacturing sector.
We're a debt based economy and one of the largest asset classes that's benefited from massive money printing and low interest rates has been the real estate market. And oh it's massive. That's it kind of m it definitely makes me more of a bear than others just because it was such a big part of the the growth in the economy.
And I mean I can't imagine all these real estate agents throughout America and how many are actually selling houses right now. How many of them have listings at actually a decently competitive price that people will actually bid on and they're not just sitting on all these listings where the buyers are delusional and think it's a hundred and $200,000 more than it's worth.
That's what it is. That is the real estate market. Yes. You still have I mean you got home builders that are cutting cost, right? They're they're cutting prices. They're they're actually buying down uh interest rates. They're doing anything they can to move the needle. Yes. But you got these delusional, you know, homeowners that still think
a lot of baby boomers. They still they still think it's sophisticated real estate investors, you know, that bought bought two and three have two and three additional homes outside of their primary residence and they're and you know, they've been riding the wave for the last 10 years and they still think it's 2021, man.
They still think it's, you know, they still think they can get that premium price. Yeah. So, at at some point, reality is going to kick them in the ass. I just don't know when. I just don't know. And then these people take it off the market and I'm like, why are you doing that? You think prices are actually going to be lower or higher in two years, a year or two years, so that you can put it back on the market and and make, you know, get the sale price that you you delusionally think it's worth.
I mean, I think it's just going to be lower. Yeah. In a year or two. Like, so I don't I don't I can't understand that reasoning that a lot of homeowners and investment property owners have in America today. So, it's crazy, man. It's crazy. We might be. We might be the crazy one. Excuse me. We might be.
We might be. So, maybe it's us. So, shifting gears, man. So, so France, some shit's hitting the fan in France, right? I mean, at least at least that's what our media is showing, right? I mean, it's it's it's crazy. I actually know, you know, a handful of folks that live in France because of the company I work for.
They're based out of France. So, well, I haven't reached out to them yet. So, I want to find out if it's our media, you know, making it because, you know, you know how the media rolls, man. Eric. Yeah. I'm watching Twitter. I'm watching the media. And I'm thinking to myself, if I'm actually in France and I'm there firsthand, would would it be as intensive as it is when I'm watching it on Twitter?
Or is this just kind of a social media perception that or some scop that's, you know, indoctrinating me or making me think something that's not reality? You never know. You never know. with social media and I'm I'm making these judgments based on these, you know, 30 second to two minute video clips.
It's easy. And I wonder if I was actually in Paris if it would actually, you know, if I would really believe that, wow, this is truly chaos. Yeah. Is it isolated in a particular area or is it widespread? So, I don't know. But, but what I do know Go ahead. What do you know? Well, Go ahead. Go ahead. Sorry.
No, you're right. Right. Well, what I do know is that France is collapsing economically. Yes. And I was reading an article today that the per capita GDP of Mississippi is higher than the the per capita GDP of France. Holy [ __ ] man. Yeah. And they have such an aging population and they have these exorbitant pension plans that they're promised to this aging population and and and it's a politically powerful group and they're not backing down and they refused to cut their you know to vote or to do anything to help the country and lower these pension costs.
So you have this huge divide between these pensioners and the rest of the citizens of France and the and the rest the birth rates decreasing. So you don't have an increase in population, an increase in workforce and it's just high tax rate 50% plus no manufacturing sector, no technology, no stock market, no IPOs, no new entrepreneurial growth.
They don't even have AC in buildings. Like literally, man, they don't have AC in buildings. But but but um too green, high energy costs. Their energy costs are disgusting. They're attacking Russia, who's their main supplier of oil, dude. Help me help me make sense of that. So, I mean, honestly, and why did they let 10 million uh migrants into their country in the first place?
And this goes back to Angela Merkel under Obama and Hillary Clinton back in the day. All the Middle East unrest that drove all these migrants into Europe. And Angela Merkel, the head of the EU, was like, "Come on in. You know, here you go. Here's free health benefits, welfare, money for housing. Come to France.
We'll take care of you." And I mean, you had to be an idiot to to look at the situation 10 years ago and be like, "This is this is definitely going to come back to haunt them." And I mean, sure enough, here we are today. So, this is a long time coming. And it it's I mean, if you're surprised, you're a far-left nut job, frankly.
Well, and and Merkel, you know, was also, I believe, uh, you know, running um Germany, right? So, so it's really the entire Europe. I mean, it was really and there's, you know, we're we're all for like, you know, migration legally and lawfully, people that bring value, of course, but only the West is crazy enough to just open up the borders to whoever comes in that doesn't really bring any value to the actual country, you know, as far as economically.
These are low IQ people, Cole. I mean, who are you kidding? third world non uneducated oftent times you know and I I and then I mean if if I were to go to another country like I couldn't just walk in I'd have to bring some value I'd have to you know speak the language I would have to you know I would have to be able to do that but it's it's
make a contribution to their society that's what you would have to do it's it's only the west you know and also I I look at it also um you know the governments know especially Europe So as bad as the US is, Europe is a lot worse. So way worse, way worse when it when it comes to debts and you know problems with their bonds and everything else.
So governments typically when they start to know the writings on the wall and they start losing control it's it's it's the problem reaction solution you know scenario oftent times where where you create a problem and in this case let's open up all the borders and everything else. uh you see the reaction which now is turning into riot riots and chaos and everything else and then you and then you come up with with the solution right so
so and in order to bring in a you know great reset as has been discussed many many times um they need total chaos chaos they need chaos because why would the people of any country accept a great reset or a total new system if they didn't believe their current system was completely broken, right? So, so you you need that.
So, so part of me just thinks that, you know, they could they could, you know, make these riots go away quickly if they wanted to right now. But, but maybe they don't want that. Maybe they want it to spread, you know, throughout Europe. And then that way they can blame the financial crisis that that you know starts in Europe or the next one which is probably
any time at this point you know who knows when but it could happen any time. But this this way they could blame it on the riots right and then so they could they have that out you know they have Putin you know on the on the warfront. Oh yeah and then they have you know the the riots you know uh in in in the country itself.
So, so I don't I don't expect these riots to go away, even though they probably could make them go away here pretty quickly. I expect them I expect them to Macron McCron yesterday came out in a press conference and blamed Donald Trump for it. Not surprising, man. Not surprising. Well, BUL, so if if you look at U president BUL of of El Salvador, you know what he did to clean up that country, it was the highest crime rate country in the world and he came in and cleaned it up.
And a huge prison. Yeah. And he said he said, I think it was, you know, late last week or maybe early this week, um, that he could get that thing cleaned up in like a few weeks, like France, like like he could just come in and I think he could, you know, I think he could. So, I mean, they've done it before.
So, yeah. So, I think it could be done, but I I just don't think they they want to do it. That's just my opinion. I think Europe's a complete mess, too. And real quick, what what's going on with their obsession with Zalinski, Ukraine, or excuse me, they really want to start World War II. And I think and and this is I've read this and seen this on Twitter.
Some very intelligent people have said this that the only way to save their collapsing economy is to start a war. Well, because with with war, that's a reason to print. You know, that that's that's that's a reason to have massive money printing. Like, yes. you know, back in the day before, you know, uh, money quote unquote could be printed out of thin air, you would have to go to the taxpayers and you would have to make a case, right, on on war because they'd raise taxes or whatever.
Now they just, you know, printed out of thin air. So, so, um, yeah, when in doubt, you know, when everything else fails, you know, countries will send you to war. I mean, that's just how they roll. And then anything from that point forward can be blamed on the war. Not not their irresponsible spending, not everything that they did over decades and decad
10 million migrants into their country. All of it, man. They can just blame it on the war. So war war is a a tool that that politicians will absolutely use uh when when all else fails. There's no doubt. Psychopaths. No doubt. And then I'll tell you what, when Trump did that deal with Putin to buy diesel, I mean, they about lost it.
But did, you know, they consider America part of NATO and one of their allies in the fight against Russia. And then this guy comes in, buys diesel from them, gives them billions of dollars in return, and then also is going to take off some of the sanctions. Yeah. And that really um you know in the hopes of ultimately building alliances with the ultimate hope of stopping the Ukraine war and ending Zalinsk's terrible reign and and total destruction of the country.
And then they don't even have elections anymore. So he can't even get voted out. He's like a a dictator dictator and he's killed. They have no more men in the country. 18 to 45. I mean, they've they've lost over a million men. It's like 25,000 a month for like the last two, three years. And to think that we started this, the Americans and the Biden administration, and we're financing the death and destruction of Ukraine and also all the Russian soldiers, too.
It's just I mean, it hasn't been part of the news cycle in the last year as much as it should have. I mean, it's getting some focus now because Trump, we're headed into the midterms and Trump wants to try to end the war, so it's getting some more press, but it's been a complete travesty, Eric. And uh and it just made me think like Democrats used to be anti-war.
It was always the Republicans that were so focused on supporting and profiting off the military-industrial complex. And I mean, nothing makes any sense anymore. You had Biden come in, he pulled us out of uh Afghanistan. Remember that disaster? And then I don't know how how weeks or months later, he gets us immediately into another war.
And then here we are today and it's just it's just it's just a total [ __ ] show. It makes me sick. It it Hold on. I'm gonna puke quick. Hold on. It is it is it is a [ __ ] show. It really is. Yeah. Um, and you know, but you know, going to that diesel comment as far as the uh the diesel that that you know, Trump bought from from Russia.
Yeah, that was so so I I I I heard and um I I'd have to confirm. So, you know, I don't want to uh say this is 100% certain, but you know, the the amount of diesel that he bought, although it was a big dollar amount, was only like 16 days of of diesel for the US because we go through so much diesel. We're such a right.
So, so it's a very small amount of diesel that he actually purchased. Not to mention, it's going to take time to get the diesel even over here. Oh, yeah. So, so, so the the the [ __ ] show that's been created with with the diesel market, with, you know, the Iran war, with, you know, Russia, Ukraine, with, you know, all these things, like, it's not going away.
It's not going away. It's not going to make a dent at the pumps and diesel making down 10 cents. Yeah. It's It's not going away. I I know they're doing everything they can to try and push gas prices down going into the midterms, but it it's it's not going away. the damage has been done and and and in fact I think unfortunately which I don't want this but I think we're about ready to see another spike in food inflation because you know
I feel like we just had one maybe four months ago we did but we talked about the the the pack of gum I buy yes man but I think we're just I think we're just getting warmed up because I don't even think the uh the scale in which diesel has gone up because it ramped up so past that that that I don't think those costs have truly been fully passed on to the consumer
which they will be. So ultimately if these diesel prices stay up, which I think they will, um everything has to go up because because the prices have not been fully passed on to the consumer and the consumer always takes that hit, man. But they have to what are truck what are trucking companies going to do, man?
you know, they have to they have to pass on the cost or they just they just can't they can't drive, man. They can't. So, they can't if they can't make money, they can't drive. So, so it is going to get passed on to the consumer. But, you know, Trump Trump said just what last week that he loves inflation.
So, I I can't I can't believe he said that [ __ ] But, but anyway, so we will get inflation. We already have. But unfortunately, I just I think it's going higher, man. I think it's going higher. particularly food man. That's a to think that it could go higher after the last two years. It's crazy. You know what?
And this all started during co remember the transitory. Oh, it's only transitory. Dude, we let a genie out of the bottle that's going to come back to haunt us for the next 20 years if not longer until the collapse of the system. Yeah. Whenever that is. And I have no idea. But this all I mean it had already started prior to COVID but you couldn't think of one particular event in history that could be more detrimental to the middle class and and to rising inflation than COVID.
I mean when they what did they print six or seven trillion in weeks? Yes. With the PPP loans, dude. Everybody that made under75,000 got, you know, 800 into their checking account. I mean, it was just and who gets first that down. We haven't even seen the full effects of CO yet and how dam in the long-term damage that that's done.
We're just starting to enter that period of time. And dude, that was a that was a sad state of affairs in America. And I just, you know, that the the the inflation that was created as a result of that. And again, the genie let out of the bottle will never be able to put back in. And we really started something, you know, it's sad, bro.
It's crazy, man. It's crazy. Anyways, and who gets first access to that capital when they print that money? I, you know, it's it's it's the 1% the 1% of the 1%. Dude, it's private equity. They always get they always get first access to the capital. So, hedge fund manager, private equity. Yeah. The Bezos of the world, you know, these types of guys, you know, and it trickles down and then by the time it gets to us, the inflation really starts to hit.
So, we don't get the benefits of that excessive capital that was created out of thin air. We just get the inflation. That's what we get. we get the if you don't have assets, if you don't have equities or real estate assets or access to debt, then there's there then you just suffer and your cost of the cost of living just increasingly gets worse and worse and you have no no nothing to combat that.
And you know, unfortunately, that's what 70 80% of the American public, the working American public and families in America. So yeah, man. It's uh and dude, that's you know that's you know the the Federal Reserve since since you when was it invented? In uh 1913. 1913. I mean all you've done is just seen a huge gap get larger and larger between the halves and have knots and now you have this 1% of the economy that what's what percentage of total assets they own I don't know you can Google it but I mean it's obvious I mean you have 1% of the economy that owns I don't know 70 80%
I was going to say 70% so probably about 70% of total assets dude they don't dude 401ks is only like three, you know, small percent. The total Yeah, it's a total. So, I mean, it's just, you know, it's just been a complete [ __ ] show and I don't know. I don't know. Go ahead. You're up. Well, that screen just popped up, so we got to wrap this thing up here in the next uh couple minutes.
But um yeah, I think I think I think I think to recap this, you know, really quick, you know, again, as chaos happens, there's always opportunity. It's just the way it is. There's always opportunity. And the opportunity is to buy assets. And really, it's a necessity, you know. So, you know, do your homework, do your research, etc.
But you have to buy high quality assets to even have a chance in in this inflation. Saving dollars in a savings account isn't going to cut it. I get I get I get having dry powder. I get having cash. I'm not saying don't have cash for a rainy day. That's fine. But there are even highinterest uh you know savings accounts where at least you can come close to um you know maybe maybe not the rate of inflation but higher than higher than a money market.
Yeah. So you get Yeah. Yeah. So four to 6%. You can find savings accounts out there paying you know four to 6%. And it's it's very important, I think, in my opinion, to keep some of your capital, your drive capital in some of those higher interest rate uh vehicles, you know, from a savings standpoint.
But then you have to buy assets. That could be something like just an index fund, you know, it could be, you know, an S&P silver. It could be silver, it could be whatever gold, it could be there are variety of different things that you can buy that will beat inflation over time. But you got to do it.
And you can start small. Don't don't feel discouraged if you have nothing saved up, whatever. Just get in a habit just like you get in a habit to build a body. You got to work out every day. You got to get to the gym. You got to eat right. you got to do these certain things day in day out to get the benefit of building your body.
Same thing with with building your your your assets, you know, start small, you know, just put aside e, you know, take away that [ __ ] Starbucks that you're spending seven bucks a day on and just and just use that to start, you know, start small. Just get in the habit of doing it week after week after week.
So three, four, five years from now, 10 years from now, you can look back and go, "Oh, [ __ ] man. And that really over time that really accumulated. I think it's changing your behavior and and uh creating those habits. Exactly. So, and I'd like to plug a book here, you know, um and you've you've recommended this book to me and I enjoyed it.
I mean, honestly, I was doing a lot of the things already anyways, but a great book is Atomic Habits. Would you agree, Eric? 100%. That is a great book. And um because it's not about changing everything at once. It's about small habits that you can do day in day out consistently and then over time you see those results.
So compound. Yeah. So that that that mindset of [ __ ] you know come January 1 I'm going to build a better body and then they stop by March and then you know you know you know how that is. Yeah. So, so instead of just saying you're going to do something drastic like cut out all the Starbucks, cut out going out to eat, you know,
and and spend all that excess capital into buying assets, which isn't realistic for most people. Some can do it, but most can't. Start off small, start building so you can look back 10 years from now and be happy with what you did. And have something to pass on to your kids and have something to pass on to their kids, the kids, your your grandkids in the future.
like build a [ __ ] legacy, man. Try to build a [ __ ] legacy and you can or just listen, you don't know where this economy is going to be in five or 10 years. And just the added security, yes, that that money that those assets or those holdings you've have that you've built that you've dollar cost averaging to, you know, will provide you, you know, in the circumstance that, you know, who knows?
I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, but um you know in this economy, in this day and age, anything's possible. And you know, obviously money isn't the end all be all, but it definitely helps and it provides an extra layer of security. Yes, it's a tool and it's a very important tool that that we we certainly need.
So, all right, brother. Well, hey, this thing's about to end, so let's let's stop this one and I'll talk to you. Talk to you later. All right.
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