NVIDIA STOCK SE CRASH Imminent 😱 Jim Cramer Warning

요약 보기

Jim Cramer는 이란 전쟁으로 유가가 오르면 주식시장이 내린다며 석유주 매수를 강조하고, 기술주(엔비디아·마이크로소프트)는 수급 문제로 부진하다고 봄. 다만 AI 펀더멘털은 강하며 Nasdaq100 선행PER이 30대에서 20대로 낮아져 반등 촉매(테슬라 인도량, 애플·구글 개인화 AI)가 있을 수 있다고 함. 두 번째 파트(사회자 성격의 채널 진행자)는 엔비디아 펀더멘털이 강하나 주가가 횡보한다고 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Sadly for the bulls, the history of oil stocks is littered with bear markets. 20% draw downs to say raise cash because it's almost never too late to sell something to protect yourself. Today was more of the same. Dow tumbling 793 points, S&P plunging 1.67%, Nasdaq plummeting 2.15%. It's a tough rough road.

02. My trust is the highest cash position I can recall. But you know what? It is never enough when you have horrendous action like this. It's almost impossible to predict what will happen in the war with Iran. We got to stop trying to do that. Right now, the one thing that's been consistently right is to buy oil stocks.

03. Every time. Every time they're down. Every time they're up. It just doesn't matter because crude is headed higher. That means stocks are headed lower. It's one for one. Please don't overthink it. I say that on a letter X all the time. Hey, oil's down, stocks will be down, and they are. And it was another week when it paid to get out of anything in tech that used to be good.

04. The stocks Companies are still good, but not the stocks. They're all bad now, including the ones loved, now disliked Nvidia. Just when we get her, showed you its best in show greatness in CTCS. I'm owning it. I'm not trading it, but I know it's going lower. I mean, look, people want They want oil stocks.

05. They do not mind They do not mind the soda stocks, any pharma stock. And I got to tell you, they like the oil drillers. I mean, that's really it. Tech, nothing. Especially Nvidia. Especially the really despised Microsoft. These are two of the greatest performers of all time, and they haven't been able to what we call catch bid in what feels like ages.

06. Until oil and interest rates, don't forget those, stop going higher, it really doesn't matter what those companies say or do. They are not going to get love from institutions and individuals, and I think they're beginning to realize that. So, is there any hope in near term? I mean, maybe there is, but you know what we got to do?

07. We got to go to the game plan uh for next week to figure this one out. Uh now, these days Mondays revolve entirely around the war and ratcheting up in tension. We know that our president said there'd be an extension of bombing, but there's still hostilities, which to me means that oil goes higher. And when oil goes higher, we know that the stock market goes lower.

08. I keep repeating that because I want people to be really understanding of what's driving the market down. It's gotten axiomatic and I don't think it can change because the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and Iran's missile and drone infrastructure is intact enough to keep it closed even as we thought that wouldn't be the case by now.

09. Worse, when the president pushed out his bombing deadline, something that would have one time moved stocks up, it meant nothing. Why? Because oil still went higher and nothing is more destructive for equities than higher oil prices, demonstrated again and again in history. Tuesday is a day of challenged companies.

10. First, McCormick reports and this spice stock has become very tough to own. The flavor company, as they call themselves, is said to be in talks to merge with Unilever's food business, which includes Hellmann's mayo, Colman's mustard, and Knorr soups. If they do the deal, the combined company will own some big chunks of multiple supermarket aisles.

11. But the food stocks have been quite simply awful, including McCormick, with a stock that's down 22% for the year. There's only one way out of this jam, though. They've got to merge and cut costs. I think that we will like a new McCormick if they do merge, which can slot their brands through its own delivery methods and save fortunes.

12. I love the combo. I hope it works out. I hope they announce it. After the close, we have the most controversial stock of the week, Nike. Now, we own this stock for the charitable trust and we're nervous. And that's exactly what I said in today's monthly CNBC investing call. There's no line of sight for Nike to return to greatness, at least not yet.

13. China has proven to be intractable, the competition's become fevered, and the inventory of the over regime somehow still seems to be dogging the company. It needs to be gotten rid of. If there's still some left, I will be very disappointed. Meanwhile, we need to see some We got to see some innovation or some new products that we're stunned by that we can't live without and more essentially we need some green shoots of return in the US that that are at least strong enough to make us feel like we're dealing with the Nike of old back when the stock was up With a great tweet as he is want to do that the PE the forward multiple on the NASDAQ 100 is now about 20 down from over 30 just 5 months ago at what point does this sell off stop?

14. It stops with a catalyst and I think the catalyst is beyond the geopolitical piece. What is what you've just described is beyond the geopolitical side the sell-off here and the catalyst come in the form probably of those mag seven that haven't had the big catalyst and so for example we saw Nvidia last Monday they essentially took up their calendar 27 revenue growth from 30 to 40% big Step up there last quarter when meta reported they took their numbers up from for growth for this March quarter from 25 to it's going to be 35% so we've had some of these these kind of resets higher but I think the catalyst to answer your question comes in the form of some of these other companies that really haven't shined and the closest catalyst amongst this group would be of course Tesla with them reporting their deliveries Next Thursday we can talk more about those but that's a potential catalyst obviously has fallen below the fold in terms of key metrics but so there are catalysts and then what we have coming kind of later in the spring I think from Apple from Google on personalized AI so Okay back it up I'm still optimistic.

15. Like that truck we're showing in the graphic I want to I want to back it up for a second because Do we know what the cause Of this selling is the The is obviously the easy answer for the market at large, right? Oil price is up, interest rates are up. But the sell-off began before the war began. All these highs were kind of hit July to October of of last year.

16. So, is the war an add-on reason for the selling or is it the main reason? I don't think so, but what is it? Yeah, it's it's an add-on. I would probably put it at you know, maybe 25% of this. The bigger topic, essentially what's going on here, and we started to see this back in the beginning of November, uh these numbers kept getting much higher, especially for the big companies.

17. And it just created this concern that it really couldn't get much better. This idea of that the growth is going to somehow slow. I think what's kind of represents this in its uh in its purest form was uh the gain that step up in guidance that uh Nvidia gave for next year from 30 to 40%. The stock traded off 8% in the following 2 and 1/2 days after that comment.

18. The Nasdaq was down about 3% during that period. And what that uh tells me is even me being uh optimistic, I wasn't expecting them to make that strong of a guide. And so, what I think we're we're really under underscoring here is that this idea about the sustainability of AI, uh this concern that it is not sustainable, I think is underwriting what this sell-off has been.

19. And so, um you know, this is going to be the challenge here is that if you're a big believer, which I am, that the substance of AI is going to far exceed the hype, if you're in that camp, what is the what's going to be the trigger of as these companies continue to beat numbers, of course, then the bar go gets even higher for that out-year growth.

20. And so, that's the piece I feel really good about the fundamentals kind of triggering or trying to define at what point the investors come to grips with this is going to be growing higher for longer. That time and in that dynamic is uh the piece that I think is going to be more difficult to manage. Jim, the thing on my mind, you know, you go back 10, 15 years and so many guests on on our airwaves or, you know, I talked to people and and they all Anyone who's told one of these platforms often comes to regret it given the performance that they've had.

21. But do you think that these companies fundamentally can grow wealth over the next 5, 10, 15 years like they did in the past? You know, are we chasing a dream from a former era? Well, I I think that uh not all of them all were created equal, of course. In the case of Microsoft, I'm a believer that they're going to be more challenged.

22. You talked about that 63% upside to the average price target. I mean, I think that the the consensus is it's a buy down here, the concurring consensus. I think uh Kelly that like that's an example of a company that's going to be impacted on a a seat growth basis. But a lot of these companies, we recently increased our position around Apple.

23. And the part of the reason was after Opus 4 came out and what we saw with this uh personalized AI, I think that there is an a massive opportunity for Apple really to get this right. I think Google also has a similar opportunity. And so, I do believe that uh some of these companies are still should fundamentally be owned.

24. I also believe that if you're looking for outperformance, I think you need to own the AI trade outside of of uh the Mag 7er. Hey guys, welcome back to my channel. I hope you all are doing well today. So, without wasting your time, let's start our video. Let me say something that might be sound crazy.

25. Right now, the most powerful company in AI is acting like a boring stock. Yes, I'm talking about Nvidia. The same company that made people rich, the same company that went up to 22,000% in a decade is now going nowhere and that's confusing everyone because when fundamentals are strong stocks are supposed to go up, right?

26. But here's the twist, the fundamentals are the actually stronger than ever. Let me break this down slowly. Because what's happening here is not obvious. First the demand. Nvidia older chips H100 launched back in 2022 and are still being rented at insanely high prices. Think about that. In tech old hardware usually become useless fast, but there even old GPUs are increasing their value.

27. That's tell you one thing, demand is not normal, demand is desperate. And there is a phrase people are using now, no such thing as a dark GPUs. Meaning every single GPUs get used immediately. No idle capacity, no over supply. That's rare. Now second, fundamentals. We are talking about a company with 75% gross margin, massive cash flow, a trillion dollars pipeline.

28. Let to the Let that sink in. A trillion dollar demand pipeline and yet the stock is stuck. So what's going on? Here's the real answer most people miss. This is not a fundamental problem. This is a market structure problem. Everyone already own it. Institutional full funds loaded. Retail already in. So even when good news comes, there is a no buyer left to push price higher.

29. That's why you see something weird. Great earnings, no move. Huge demand, no breakout. Record margin, still sideways. Now let's go deeper. Because this is where things get interesting. The entire AI market is shifting phase from training to interfaces. Training is when AI learn and interfaces is when AI works.

30. And inferences is much bigger because once AI start doing real task, uses exploded and that's bring us the biggest shift that is agentic AI. Not chatbots, not agent. System that write codes, analyze the data and execute the workflow, make a decision and that's here's the key insights. One chatbot is equal to one request.