저자: Stock Market Patterns · 외국인
다듬은 글
I just got back from one of the most remarkable of all places, the showcase for artificial intelligence and accelerated computing in all of its forms, Nvidia's GTC conference in San Jose. There I saw so many different companies capitalizing Nvidia's software and hardware platform, and they're going to do that regardless of what happens in the Middle East.
Nvidia's stock is hard to understand, more on that later. But what keeps people from missing the big gains in the stock is that it it's really at the heart of what's known as the fourth industrial revolution. That's where technology overruns the way they do things, not just companies but individuals.
They can do more with less. They can create all new industries we haven't even imagined yet. They can generate amazing profits for companies that harness AI, whether it be ChatGPT or Anthropic or Gemini and open claw, something I talked about later in the show. They're a canvas anyone can write on. So I scanned the field for winners.
I think Dell's worth buying. This is the company that enterprises are using to connect with Nvidia. I call it the customer's most sought-after technology and one of the most undervalued stocks in the market. I reiterated Dell as a bullpen stock for the club in today's morning meeting, but only if it retreats a bit from these levels.
I like ARM Holdings, which I think will be the big beneficiary from a pivot to using not just its monster GPU architecture, but also its more agile CPUs to help manage these AI agents. They need CPUs. ARM's always been tight with Nvidia. I think he gets tighter. But most of all, if I didn't own it, I would buy the stock of Nvidia.
I know it can go down, maybe four or five points. Doesn't mean anything. Small. The tech giant's not hemmed in by Iran. It's not shredded by stagflation fears. It's lack of upside has more to do with the structure of the market. Nvidia's over-owned right now. That won't matter if all the good things I saw at GTC come to fruition, though.
Some stocks may be just too cheap to avoid. The bottom line, Nvidia's one of the fastest-growing firms with one of the lowest valuations in the entire market, and that's always tempting, even with oil up a few bucks and recalcitrant Federal Reserve. Some of it may matter I'm too far too fast. History says you need to be a buyer.
Because when the market gets oversold, it will inevitably bounce. You know what? I think that's what happened today. The average spent most of the session down, down big, before rebounding hard in the afternoon as the price of oil pulled back from its highs. The Dow only finished down 204 points. S&P declined just 0.27%.
Nasdaq shed 0.28%. What a comeback based on the decline in the price of oil at the end of the day. But I think the oversold nature of the stock market had much more to do with it. The session started out really bad because we got another big rally in the price of oil. This spike, which was felt far more in Europe than the United States, happened because of a volley of attacks on oil fields.
First, Israel bombing the giant South Pars gas field, Iran's biggest gas field, and then Iran hitting Qatar's biggest LNG facility. Causing some serious damage. Unlike the US, which is overflowing with natural gas, the rest of the world doesn't have enough to go around. Qatar is the world's biggest exporter, so the price of that gas jumped globally, taking the world economy one step closer to recession, even if it didn't impact our price.
We're now headed toward our fourth down week in a row. Even as most of our companies are doing quite well, and interest rates, they've been tame. President did say on Truth Social no more attacks will be made by Israel on quote this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field end quote unless Iran attacks Qatar first.
Uh which in that case the whole South Pars Field would be wiped out, Trump claimed. Now, is that an olive branch or just some random musings that they kind of don't mean anything? Honestly, it doesn't matter. Because at today's lows, we reached that hold your nose and buy buy buy moment where the market got so oversold, so negative that it really doesn't matter what happens.
That's right. Things turn around. How can I be so sure that today's afternoon rebound can continue? I can't. Oh, but all I have is history. I like history though because it holds up. And I got sentiment uh well, at least as well as it can be measured. So, let me make this tangible to you. Let's go a checklist of what I like to look at.
First of all, I like to look at the American Association of Individual Investors poll. That poll right now is showing a shocking amount of bearishness. Right now, the bulls are at 30.4%. Just so few bulls. Uh neutral 17.6% and a phenomenal 52% of the people believe that the market's going to go down, maybe big.
They're bearish. And that's a highly unusual skew. It means there are far more bears than bulls. That matters because when just about everyone's already bearish, THERE'S NOBODY LEFT TO SELL. WHEN you see this kind of ratio, it means that bears are more likely to convert to bulls on any positive news and they're going to put their money to work in stocks.
It's just unsustainable to have this many bears right now. Now, I don't have a reason to justify that buying, right? Maybe President Trump sticks by his word. But uh but it somehow opens the straits of Hormuz, destroying Iranian leverage. Maybe Iran says uncle, though I can't imagine that. Maybe a new source of oil comes to the market with a pipeline that we know about that's bigger than we thought.
Maybe we just let the hostilities cool off a little bit. Second, CNN's got this index. I don't look at it that much except when it's extreme. It's called the Fear and Greed Index. It's a total market sentiment tool. There are five elements to the semicircle: extreme fear, fear, uh neutral, greed, and extreme greed.
Right now, we're solidly in the extreme fear sector. Again, like the Bob Bear Ratio, it's unlikely that panickers are going to be right. Historically, that would be highly unusual. They know nothing. Third, there's the trusty oscillator that puts It's put out by this organization called Market Edge.
I swear by it. It measures overbought and oversold pressure on the S&P 500. Now, I've been studying this oscillator since 1987. It comes out every day right when the market closes, and it's rarely steered me wrong. If you buy into an extremely oversold market like the one we have right now, you tend over the next 30 days to begin to make out like a bandit.
The notion behind the oscillator is that there's a level of equilibrium between +3 and -3, where you're kind of in this thing called It's It's no man's land. The oscillator means nothing between those guideposts, buy or sell. When it reaches -5 or +5, you begin to get some historical impact. +5 signals that the market's overbought, which quite simply means that things are too bullish.
Sell, sell, sell. There are They're so positive that if there's any negative news, the average is going to get a severe setback. Same with the -5 gauge. If we get a flash of something positive in an oversold market, the bears are going to have to scramble, which rapidly moves up prices. At last night's close, the oscillator was at -7.5.
And that's extremely oversold. At these levels, the odds now favor the bulls, WHICH IS ONE reason why I think we rebounded in the afternoon. No, it doesn't mean that the averages definitely will fly higher, but it's very rare for the market to get this oversold. The last time we dropped more than yesterday was shortly after Liberation Day.
That was last year, April, when the oscillator clocked an incredible -10.62. 30 days later, the S&P was up 13.6%. There hasn't been another -10 reading since then. They're very rare events. A study of the oscillator's history shows that an oversold reading this extreme almost always produces large gains after 30 days.
The oscillator has only led me astray a handful of times in the last 38 years. Mostly they were situations where we had genuine systemic risk. Think the miserable week for the crash of '87 or the weeks on end at the onset of the financial crisis. Then it was wrong. Those are the exceptions though. As a rule, buy something when the oscillator gets us oversold.
You do. And that's why we did some buying for the charitable trust that members of the CNBC Investing Club know. We sent out a bulletin that said we're buying two stocks. We've held off that kind of commitment for a long time. But today because of that oscillator, we pulled the trigger. Out of respect for the oversold condition.
Now, I want to be very clear. I'm not saying that oil is peaking here, although I was surprised by the weakness in West Texas Intermediate Crude today. I hope you were. I'm not saying that the war with Iran is winding down. No, too many variables including a president who not only says the war is over, maybe he'll send in ground troops.
I am saying that on any good news of any proportion, perhaps after we test here, there could be a snapback rally of some proportion. Here's the bottom line. History says that when you get this oversold, there will be a meaningful rally, something lasting. I'm going with history. It's too stark, too accurate to do otherwise.
James in California, James. Hello Jim, it's James calling from Indian Wells, California. All right, what's going on James? Good to hear from you again. It's been a while. Yeah, love your book. Gave it to both my grandsons Jackson and Hunter for Christmas. They're they're reading it too. So that's great.
Okay. Thank you for that. Okay. My stock has been going down. Down about 30% on this company that just had a great quarter and a great buyback. What's going on? What's the catalyst for Reddit? Oh man, I got to tell you something. I've watched this Reddit. I mentioned it in in How to Make Money in Any Market.
I I never thought it would get down this low. I think it's an incredibly valuable property. It charges too little for advertising. It's got a great group of of people who are very very active and constantly checking the site. I'm sticking by Reddit. As a matter of fact, I'd like to buy some stock right here at 27 times earnings.
All right, look, when we get this oversold, history says we are in store for a meaningful rally. I think that would go to history. I'm a stick Hey guys, welcome back to my channel. I hope you all are doing well today. So, without wasting time, let's start our video. Now, everything we discussed so far lead to one massive shift.
And this is the part most people are still underestimating. We're entering the agentic AI era. Not chatbots, not assistant agents. System that don't just respond, they act. They can write full code bases, manage workflow, analyze the businesses, make decision, and execute the task. And here's the critical shift.
Instead of one AI, you can now have a swarms of AI agents working together. And think about this carefully. One human managing five agents, then five 10 agents, and then 15 agents. Each agent doing work continuously. Every second they are generating tokens. Every token require compute, and this is where demand explodes because now AI is not occasional use.
It has become a constant 24/7 execution. And this is exactly what Jensen Huang was talk talking about. We are seeing an inference inflection. And this is not a small. Compute demand has already increased massively. But what's coming next is exponential. Because enterprises are just starting to adopt this.
Bank, retail, health care, and manufacturing. All of them are integrating AI agents. And when that's happen at a scale, demand for compute goes vertical. And now here's the part that most people completely miss. The entire AI boom so far has been driven mostly by training. But the real money comes from inferences.
Because training happens one and this is happening forever. And with a genetic system inferences demand multiplies. That's why people are now talking about a multi-trillion dollar compute market. Not billions, not hundreds of billions, a trillion. And NVIDIA is right at the center of it. But it doesn't stop there.
Because after a genetic AI comes the next wave and that is physical AI. This is where things go from digital to real world impact. We are talking about robots, autonomous machines, smart factories, AI driven AI infrastructure, AI that does not just think but interact with the real world. And guess what is powered at?
Compute. More compute and much more compute. And this is why NVIDIA is not just just building the chips. They are building an entire ecosystem. Hardware, software, simulation and infrastructure. From data centers to robots. To edge devices. This is a fully stack strategy and it creates something very powerful, a moat.
Because once companies build on NVIDIA, switching become very difficult. And this is similar to what's happened with operating system and cloud platforms. Once you are in, you stay in. Now let's zoom out. Now look at the bigger picture. We are not in the last stage of AI. We are early, very early. This is like the internet in the '90s or smartphone in the early 2000s.
Where the real growth came later and that's why the short term moment can be misleading. Because the long term story is much bigger. So here's the real takeaway. NVIDIA is not slowing down. The market is just catching his breath. Demand is still rising, adoption is accelerating and the biggest wave hasn't even hit yet.
So the real question is not is NVIDIA done? The real question is how big does this become? Because if AI truly transform everything, then NVIDIA isn't just a company, it's infrastructure and the infrastructure tend to big win, very big. So, maybe the stock being quiet right now. It's It isn't a weakness, maybe it's just a calm before the next
Comments 0