저자: ThomasJames · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 시타델(Ken Griffin)이 규제 면제를 이용해 전 직원·SEC·DTCC 등에 성과보수를 지급하는 구조라는 주장을 펼치며, AMC 공매도 청산 압력과 하락장을 근거로 시장 추가 폭락을 전망한다. [시타델 규제 면제 주장] 시타델의 면제 신고서를 근거로, 과거 직원이 SEC·DTCC 등에 가더라도 성과보수 지급이 가능하고 기록 공개가 면제된다고 주장한다. 시타델이 2009년 이후 매년 이 면제를 신청해 왔다고 언급한다. 페이먼트 포 오더 플로우(PFOF)에 대한 시타델의 입장 변화를 문제 삼는다. [AMC 공매도·차입비용] 차입비용(cost to borrow)이 최근 급등해 약 25% 수준이라고 언급하며, 과거 2021년 4~8월 고점(최대 89% 수준)과 비교한다. 진행자는 차입비용이 더 오를 것으로 보고 AMC 숏 스퀴즈 재개를 기대한다. [거시·금리] 백악관이 다음날 발표될 물가 지표가 높게 나올 것으로 예상한다고 전해, 인플레이션 재가속 가능성을 언급한다. 연준의 0.5%p 금리 인상이 충분하지 않다고 보고, 추가 고강도 인상과 경기 침체 가능성을 시사한다. [하락장 전망] IBKR 창업자 Thomas Peterffy가 S&P500이 추가로 15% 더 하락할 수 있다고 봤다고 인용한다(발언 인용, 진행자 동의 여부 명시 안 됨). [사모 펀드 리스크] 블룸버그 기사를 인용해 D1 캐피털 등이 사모 투자 자산을 담보로 차입해 투자했으나, 사모 자산 평가 하락 시 마진콜 위험이 커진다고 설명한다. 실리콘밸리 유니콘 등 사모 기업 가치가 20~60% 하락하고 있어 헤지펀드 청산 연쇄 가능성을 제기한다. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 전반적으로 하락·변동성 확대 쪽에 무게를 두며, 특정 종목 매수 추천은 명확히 하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
not only controls everyone but quite literally controls everything to do with the us markets this user on reddit has picked up a few things from citadel's recent exemption filing it says a managing member a member or citadel entity that is registered as an investment advisor under the advisors act may be paid a performance fee or allocated a performance allocation only if permitted by rule 205-3 under the advisors act this is to the exempt permitted by the managing member an eligible employee and or its qualified participant may be issued additional interests whether vested or unvested and or make additional capital contributions to the esc fund in which invested after such eligible employees employment with citadel has terminated unvested interest issued to an eligible employee after his or her employment with citadel will typically vest following compliance with any post-employment conditions and the poster says so way that means that any citadel employee past present or future can still contribute to the funds and can still be paid a performance fee or a performance allocation and their exemption from this act allows citadel not to disclose any of this not to disclose who's being paid and not to disclose who's investing in the citadel funds because they don't have to keep records that basically means that even if ken griffin hires somebody and they leave or they quit even if they never worked for ken directly because they're part of a committee or maybe they invested with ken or maybe for some reason ken considers them a member or a citadel entity or a qualified participant that means they can still be paid by ken griffin with no reason and with no records even if that past employee goes to the dtcc or they go to the sec or they go to a different government agency or any other fund on wall street they can still be paid directly by ken griffin with no records that basically means that anybody can still do some favors for ken griffin and he'll just allocate them a performance allocation or allocate them a performance fee aka bribe and nobody will know because ken griffin doesn't have to disclose it and he said essentially that ties into past due diligence about citadel employees leaving to work at the boston consulting group leaving to work at pwc or some major top accountants and auditors or even directly going to work at the dtcc or other organizations like the sec now in many of my previous videos i've spoken about how multiple employees from citadel went on to work at the boston consulting group and then infiltrated companies like netflix like gamestop like amc and many others but not only have these citadel employees left to join the boston consulting group i'm sure there's many citadel employees that have also left to join the dtcc the sec or maybe even some top accounting firms and he said everybody that worked at citadel at any time in the past and potentially present and or future and now works for another company could theoretically and legally still be on citadel's payroll he says government agencies clearing house approvers auditors and the sec all can still be getting money under the table according to this rule and according to this exemption and he said that theoretically does include dave flower who is supposedly for the retail investors and is supposedly trying to force a ban on payment for order flow and citadel's exemption disclosure even states the company intends to continue to form and operate the efc funds to provide long-term financial incentives for eligible employees or ex-employees of citadel to preserve citadel's competitive advantage and to align the financial interests of eligible past employees with those of citadel and investors in the citadel third party funds so that basically means that under this exemption citadel can continue to pay ex-employees to ensure that those ex-employees financial interests align with citadels it says citadel has in the past and may in the future sponsor and manage other investment vehicles for the benefit of certain current and former employees and other affiliated persons that rely on other exemptions from the 1940 act also guys if you didn't already know moomoo do not accept payment for order flow because they don't clear through clearinghouses like apex clearing who are obviously used by brokers like robin hood and weibull instead they have their very own clearinghouse photo incorporated and therefore they do not accept payment for order flow their full moon was brilliant for buying those amc shares and right now if you sign up to moomoos in the link in the description below you can currently get five free stocks worth up to 2 500 each and a free share of lucid motors on top of that and he says think logically if you knew that you were losing and you saw that you were in a losing battle if you saw that everything was about to come crashing down around you would it be such a stretch to imagine that you could use a former employee who is still technically on the payroll to advocate for you to effectively buy you time or help you try and escape from a sketchy short position and he said that citadel have actually filed this application for exemption every single year since 2009 which seems to be about the time that ken griffin actually changed his mind on payment for order flow obviously back in the early 2000s ken griffin was actually against payment fraud of flow but obviously sometimes since the early 2000s and now he seems to have changed his tune and now obviously loves payment for order flow i think ken griffin was obviously corrupted somewhere along those lines and since early 2009 every single year has been filing this exemption so he doesn't have to disclose who's in these esc funds or he doesn't have to disclose who he still pays that used to work at citadel and therefore it wouldn't surprise me if ex-citadel employees have actually infiltrated the sec and they're still being paid by ken griffin to effectively do his dirty work but i also wanted to talk about the cost to borrow rate for amc and how it's been absolutely skyrocketing over the last week or two obviously in my previous few videos i've shown you screenshots from ortex that shows this rising cost to borrow rate but i wanted to show you it in a graph format to show you how this cost to borrow rate stacks up against last year's rates this data from iborodesk only goes back to the 10th of june 2021 aka after the second run-up but we can see that since the 10th of june 2021 the cost to borrow rate is nowhere as high or has never been anywhere near as high its current rate the highest we've previously seen the average cost to borrow rate was back in august of 2021 where it briefly jumped to six percent for a singular day but right now it's obviously holding around this 25 ray if we rewind even further and find some screenshots from june may and april 2021 we can see the current cost to borrow rate is very similarly tracking the mate run up back in april the cost of borrow rate briefly shut up to 26 before falling slightly to 17 it then shot up on may 12th which is i think around the day we broke through that 801 barrier all the way up to 89 after we broke through 801 it did then fall back down to around 22 for the remainder of may until we broke through that 14 barrier where it jumped back up to 22 and obviously during the june run up on the 3rd of june the cost of borrow rate was around 19 therefore seeing the current cost to borrow rate already hitting around 25 is a very promising sign and i expect this to continue running upwards maybe even higher 89 again before amc starts on the next run-up potentially causing the squeeze personally watching this cost to borrow rate with a keen eye as i do think it is a very very important metric that shows that the hedges are absolutely losing control unusual wales is also tweeted saying the white house says it expects the inflation numbers that are released at the end of the week aka tomorrow to be elevated you'll remember that inflation previously fell from around 8.6 down to around 8.3 percent but now the white house is expecting the cpi reading to again be elevated i wonder if inflation is going to run back above 8.6 or potentially run even above nine percent this goes to show the fed's current plan of hiking rates at half a percent at each interval is still not satisfactory to curb inflation rates have obviously been pushed back up recently by 0.5 percent but yet inflation is still running even higher and it's again expected to be elevated this goes to show the fed is going to have to try and push interest rates even higher even faster potentially obviously crashing the economy as i've said before it seems like everything seems to be coming to plan for the ames squeeze obviously the cost to buy a rate is skyrocketing and the market looks like it's going to be set to resume its crash tomorrow morning on top of that unusual wells is also tweakers saying interactive brokers founder and ceo thomas peterby sees the stock market dropping by another 15 obviously the s p 500 recently bounced back a little bit after being down 20 percent but even thomas petsfee still thinks the s p 500 has another 15 to full on top of that initial 20 and therefore the market is still expected to continue crashing which is obviously going to cause more and more and more stress to all those hedge funds out there that are currently massively over leveraged this bloomberg article says the firm borrowed money to buy stakes in private companies and posted massive gains but as those valuations fade such bullishness is veered into losses across the industry with the help of jpmorgan in august of 2020 d1 capital partners used its stakes in private companies as collateral for borrowing two billion dollars that the firm could put towards yet more investments in more private companies d1 updated its valuations on those private companies and posted a whopping 70 gain obviously for listed companies the valuation is updated every second as the stock moves but with private companies valuations are typically only done on a yearly basis not on a secondary basis but now obviously as the market has fallen dramatically the industry is bracing for a reckoning as they start to mark their private investments accurately for the first time in 2022 it says across wall street billionaire investors and their advisors are urgently trying to figure out just how much exposure they have to plunging valuations in silicon valley unicorns and other private ventures they're reviewing disclosures by some of the most active buyers of those assets including d1 and obviously tiger global management and many others valuations of many of these companies are now tumbling which is only going to reduce the available margin that these hedge funds have to meet their margin requirements obviously it's all well and good recognizing a 70 profit on your private investments to meet those margin calls and to meet those margin requirements but what happens when you have to mark those private investments accurately and basically lose that 70 profit losing massive chunks of margin this obviously doesn't just impact funds like d1 and tiger global management impacts many other funds that invest in private companies like citadel for example it says that's left hedge fund investors trying to figure out whether their money managers might suspend withdrawals face demands from lenders to post more collateral or in a worst case scenario have to start selling investments quickly enough to drive down asset prices in a chain reaction many of these private companies are now taking haircuts ranging from between 20 and 60 and this is impacting on these hedge funds available margin as more and more of these private investments are downgraded massively obviously this is only going to add to the crash in market and exacerbate the effect of the current market crash so guys be sure to let me know what you think down in the comments below and also be sure to
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