저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 아직 과열이 아니며, 금리 인하와 저금리 환경이 주가 밸류에이션을 지지해 추가 상승 여력이 있다는 낙관론. 금리·밸류에이션: 파월 발언 이후 금리 인하 기대가 커졌고, 10년물 금리가 연방기금금리보다 크게 낮은 상태가 불편하다고 언급. 밸류에이션: S&P500 4분기 이익 추정치는 보수적으로 봐도 PER 약 19배 수준이며 과열은 아니라고 봄. 저금리 시대에는 PER 18~20배가 새로운 정상(normal)일 수 있다고 주장. 지수 전망: 공정가치 대비 10~15% 과열 가능성도 있으나, 올해 약 5~6%, 최대 10~12% 추가 상승 가능성 언급. 러셀2000은 작년 고점 대비 약 10% 낮아 상대적으로 여력이 있다고 봄. 실적 전망: 4분기 가이던스는 도전받을 수 있으며, 하반기는 2분기보다 더 신중해야 한다고 경고. 정책·국채: 재정적자는 중요하지만 미국채에 대한 수요가 강해 당분간 저금리가 유지될 것이라 전망. 재정지출 확대가 다음 상승 동력일 수 있다는 질문에는 장기적으로 한도 없이 적자를 낼 수는 없다고 신중히 답변. 섹터: 고배당주·전통 가치주로의 로테이션이 올 수 있으며, 하반기에 그런 움직임이 나타날 수 있다고 봄. 방어주에서 경기민감주로의 이동 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
all right so you've heard the commentary I hope what do you think happens to stocks now that Powell said what he did over the last couple of days yeah Eileen I like it I would love to see 50 I doesn't look like 50 now with some of these firm inflation readings I think we should have a Fed Funds rate around 170 I I'm really uncomfortable when the 10-year is so much below Fed Funds but certainly the direction is right the momentum was is there I you know we I heard a mention of 17 times earnings actually when I look at earnings I put a conservative spin on it I think fourth-quarter earnings estimates on S&P are - I I think we're really 19 now but could we go to 2020 - yeah but that that puts you in a little kind of a precarious situation I feel better if transportations were hitting highs I feel better Russell 2000 which is still 10% below last year's high but nonetheless I mean a little inflation is definitely good for the market it might slow the Fed a little bit but yeah I mean the the short-term trends and technicals look good to me I say overshoot possibility what do you say I think possible yeah I mean listen I mean almost that's the history of the market right I mean we we get optimistic and then we get too optimistic and then we get a correction from there so I may tell you fair market value is a value but you know we could be 10 15 percent above it before we get there at the end but I think pare market value does give us another 5 percent 6 percent this year but we may go up 10 12 before you know we sell off a bit fourth quarter I think some of the guidance might be challenged as we're gonna get in the next two weeks second half I think we're gonna meet second quarter but second half I think might be a little bit more cautious than some people are anticipating what about the notion that earnings get a pass because of Powell well lower interest rates are great I mean that does mean higher PE I mean often said that I think 18 to 20 is may be the new normal not 15 anymore which is you know 19th century early 20th century I mean when you have interest rates zero and and solo I mean and that should mean a higher capitalization rate both from the theory and in empirical work so you know eighteen to twenty is is if that's the new normal nineteen is where we are now on a conservative basis we're not overvalued professor it's Jim laventhol I was a student of yours twenty two years ago and there's a few things that you taught me one of which what if he was aged better by the way and it's not the guy hang on Steve we've got a whole show one of the things that you taught me is thinking about big secular trends of we're buying in financial assets is going to come from an example of which was back then you were saying look for the middle middle income class in emerging markets to start buying stocks in that context thinking about what we hear a lot about today modern monetary theory which is basically we're going to run the printing presses and what you're talking about with low interest rates which we all see as well is that possibly what gives this expansion and this bull market its next big leg is the idea that the government is going to spend because deficits don't matter interest rates don't matter and that that spending will cycle through an economic expansion and a continued bull market well you know I you know you always have to be cautious they deficits don't matter but the truth is the reality is there's an insatiable appetite for Treasuries around the world what's up and out ability a trillion Treasuries every year and through our deficits and they get snatched up right away I mean actually the US Treasuries are the go to a hedge asset you know against financial risk and everything else so you know if the Dow is down a thousand points Treasuries are up three people like that and that's gonna keep those interest rates low on those Treasuries it doesn't mean we can run unlimited deficits all down the road but it means there's an enormous appetite right now that I don't see waning so I think you're right I think we're going to be in a low interest rate world for many years to come Wow so you say five to six percent more maybe this year you could get a combined 10 to 12 percent more overall I think is what you said can you get that with the so-called defensive sectors that have been doing quite well continuing to do so or you need to have money coming out of those areas the bond proxies and other things you know which kind of sectors I'm talking about and then going into more cyclical areas of the market well you know with this lower interest rates we you know we might see a return to more values that's more dividend paying stocks you know you know people are hungry for yield you want to keep on squeezing into these high-yield you know potentially risky investments when there's a lot of dividend Singh stocks are paying three four percent with growth and potential you know inflation hedges built in I think that rotation people say yeah you know I need that income I don't want to stretch in the fixed income model I rather get for the dividend dunsack's a lot of those are the sense of issues I mean what we call the traditional values so we haven't seen that rotation yet I'm sort of surprised once the pivot occurred the powers pivot in December I thought we might begin to see it but the second half of this year really we might begin to begin to see that that's low you
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