저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 월마트·아마존·타겟·코스트코·홈디포 등 소비주 강세를 긍정하며 관심 종목으로 제시. 소비주 및 종목 평가: 월마트는 52주 신고가 부근(약 113달러대)이며 소비 강세의 수혜로 언급됨. 홈디포는 금리 하락에 따른 재융자 수혜로 강세. 타겟은 밸류에이션이 낮다고 보고 진행자가 매수했다고 밝힘. 아마존은 2,000달러 돌파가 심리적 이동이라며 목표가 상향(애널리스트 2,500달러, 3,000달러 기대) 가능성 언급. 코스트코: 실적(comps)이 양호하고 경쟁 환경을 잘 극복한다고 평가했으나 PER이 다소 부풀려졌다고 우려. 거시 및 시장 전망: 금리 인하 사이클과 소비 강세가 경제 마지막 버팀목이라고 봄. 패시브 자금 쏠림으로 개별 종목 알파 창출이 어려워졌다는 진단. 방어적 포지셔닝이 여전해 S&P 3,300 도달에는 경기순환주 중심으로의 전환이 필요하다고 언급. 리스크: 밸류에이션 부담(월마트·아마존·코스트코), 중국 관세 등 수입 원가 부담으로 마진 압박 가능성, 소비자 불매 움직임 등 일부 우려 제기. 출연자 전망: 소비주 중심의 상승 흐름을 낙관하되 밸류에이션 과열을 경계하는 입장.
다듬은 글
I want to address Kramer's new watch list if you want to call it that so of it think the guy who coined the fangs now has the watch stocks Walmart Amazon Target Costco and Home Depot let's dissect this a little bit Pete you want to first well we I think we across the board probably like a lot of these various names I think from a valuation perspective I get a little bit more nervous about the Walmart's the Amazons of the world target remains very inexpensive and by the way we talk about earnings I you know earnings just aren't don't really have them you know cargo was up 15% year-over-year on the last one so I mean there is some earnings out there their guidance was good all of their numbers in terms of growth across every single metric was good so I look at this company that's still trading well underneath the S&P multiple right now Scott of the names right there that stands out the only other name on there that it's it's nerve-racking and yet I look at Costco I feel like it's a little bit inflated in terms of its p/e right now as well comps were good though they continued to yep they continue to execute they continue to be able to battle the internet world that everybody is out was so fearful of all the time and Costco's doing a great job about depo you know mortgage rates are falling yeah housing markets been a bit you know suffering push it a big-time high I mean it is exploding to the upside and that's with some ludicrous folks saying oh we should boycott this or boycott that they're just doing almost everything right I don't know I mean you know and if you take away some of the same issues that Lindsay mentioned with Fastenal that their chairman was talking about as far as how China how imports impacted them yes they were able to pass it on but it's definitely cutting into their March margins if this one if you get past the trade deal Scott this one is 15 percent higher very quickly you know people I'm not sure that it matters what I'm going to say me I'm saying anyway the market the market at this time that some people be able to interpret appropriately I was going to say you knew I wasn't going to lay off that I knew I knew but I digress it's it's a rising tide so it's lifting all ships so it doesn't matter and sometimes what the fundamentals are if they're a leading index participant they're gonna rise and with passive in passive funds owning more than 50% of all the large cap stocks your value in generating Alf as a stock pickers is gonna have to come from other stocks so Home Depot's not up saying because there's big news or not in an all-time high because of that not neither is Walmart it's up there because it's a leading market is payer Walmart is more than 50% owned by index but stalwart here is Walmart Joe new 52-week high again today 113 72 was the high today that's a 52-week high I mean this stocks been on a big one eat Josh Brown his credits been talking about it a lot you've talked about it it's you know been a fundamental case to make a technical break out that the stock has been witnessing as well yeah it's been 2 or 3 years in the making that the stock has had to turn around these are five consumer names I mean that's basically measuring the strength of the consumer you look at Home Depot refinancing is obviously benefiting Home Depot it's not so much about new home purchases about the ability of a lower rate environment that's powering the consumer so the consumer we've talked about it being the last leg of strength in the economy and clearly you're seeing it I still think there's a defensive positioning mindset in the market so if you're talking about getting to 3,300 you're going to have to have a shift to a more cyclical oriented positioning standpoint in the equities market to get there maybe we're at the beginnings rate does help you that even do that right well rate cut cycles certainly help you not one and done and and again I think we're at the precipice of something that we didn't think we were gonna see which is a cycle so what I bought I bought Amazon and I bought target oh I bought target because I got tired hearing Pete whine about it I don't play the only one that brought this Hopf be carefully changes last name to Cornell but that's a different story because I want to be more exposed to consumer I didn't have much retail exposure so that's it and Plus Amazon what's facing going over 2,000 I think is psychological move I'm not so sure price target on there yes analysts had out their 2500 they're gonna chase themselves I'm waiting for one to be 3,000 you
Comments 0